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Bright Black Friday? Will Retail Win Big in 2004?


NEW YORK New York, state, United States
New York, Middle Atlantic state of the United States. It is bordered by Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and the Atlantic Ocean (E), New Jersey and Pennsylvania (S), Lakes Erie and Ontario and the Canadian province of
 -- Black Friday Black Friday, Sept. 24, 1869, in U.S. history, day of financial panic. In 1869 a small group of American financial speculators, including Jay Gould and James Fisk, sought the support of federal officials of the Grant administration in a drive to corner the gold , the day after Thanksgiving, is the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season. More than half of all retailer profits will be realized in the month that follows Black Friday. Wall Street is predicting a 3% to 5% increase over 2003, but Dan Hess Dan Hess may refer to:
  • Dan Hess (composer), a composer of video games music
  • Dan Hess (author), a web comic author, notable for Angel Moxie and Realms of Ishikaze
, CEO (1) (Chief Executive Officer) The highest individual in command of an organization. Typically the president of the company, the CEO reports to the Chairman of the Board.  of Merchant Forecast is much more bullish and predicts retailers will realize a 5% to 7% increase. The main reasons include early gift buying and 2 extra shopping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas. Dan is available to comment on:

--Black Friday:

--Not So Big: Black Friday is no longer the biggest shopping day of the year--Christmas Eve has replaced it.

--Stock Not Profits: Retailers use this day to gauge what items to stock for the full shopping season, not what their profits will be.

--Anchor Day: Anchor stores anchor store
n.
A large store, such as a department store or supermarket, that is prominently located in a shopping mall to attract customers who are then expected to patronize the other shops in the mall.
 in malls, such as Macy's or Lord & Taylor, do the most business of all mall stores on Black Friday.

--Incentives: Retailers discounted early last year but are "incentivizing" this year--offering sales such as "buy one and get a second at 15% off."

--Holiday Winners and Losers:

--Electronics Will Outperform Outperform

An analyst recommendation meaning a stock is expected to do slightly better than the market return.

Notes:
Exact definitions vary by brokerage, but in general this rating is better than neutral and worse than buy or strong buy.
 Apparel: The must have item this season is the flat screen TV.

--Gift Cards have Matured: No longer the "male solution to holiday shopping," they are now perfectly acceptable gifts, especially for luxury items. Retailers say gift cards are extending holiday shopping into January.

--The Year of the Poncho, Not: Though seemingly ubiquitous, the poncho does not favor all body types and failed as a trend in 2004.

--Faux Luxury for 2005: Pendants, bracelets and other accessories will dominate the fashion trend of 2005. Coach, Inc. will own this trend.

Merchant Forecast is the foremost independent research firm in retail and apparel, providing financial clients with predictions and observations in its weekly M4 report that move markets. By focusing on real time in-store performance of major retailers, industry trends and consumer activity, Merchant Forecast provides actionable insights for institutional investors Institutional Investor

A non-bank person or organization that trades securities in large enough share quantities or dollar amounts that they qualify for preferential treatment and lower commissions.
.
COPYRIGHT 2004 Business Wire
No portion of this article can be reproduced without the express written permission from the copyright holder.
Copyright 2004, Gale Group. All rights reserved. Gale Group is a Thomson Corporation Company.

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Publication:Business Wire
Date:Nov 24, 2004
Words:326
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