Bridges To Neighbouring States.

When a US bipartisan commission in December 2006 called for direct US talks with Iran and Syria, Baghdad was as disapproving of the idea as the White House. Fearful that neighbours would end up dictating Iraqi politics - yet needing these states' help on security - the government came up with a watered-down version of the proposal. Baghdad, it said, would host a regional conference and set its agenda.

The result of weeks of diplomacy was a March 10-11 meeting in Baghdad, bringing together senior officials from Arab states, Iran, Turkey and the five permanent UNSC members. If the talks go well, a foreign ministerial-level meeting could follow in a month.

Talk over whether the US decision to sit down with Iran and Syria marks a serious shift in policy has overshadowed the debate in the run-up to the conference. For the Iraqis, however, the priority is to start a process by which neighbours help restore security and bolster the central government, instead of using Iraqi territory to settle scores.

The FT on March 9 quoted Iraq's Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari as saying: "All the conflicts are reflected on us. What we want is to create a regional environment that helps us so that we can move forward on our security and political plans".

Since the 2003 US invasion, the feuds between Iraq's main political groups have been exacerbated by neighbouring states, raising fears that the war could degenerate into a regional sectarian conflict involving Arabs, Iranians and, eventually, the Turks. Iraq is already the stage on which the US and Iran are confronting each other, with the US military moving in recent weeks to disrupt the alleged Iranian support network for Iraqi Shi'ite militias.

Iraq's sectarian conflict has intensified tensions between the Shi'ite theocracy of Iran and Sunni Arab states. Concerns over Tehran's influence with the Shi'ite majority dominant in the Iraqi government have led Saudi Arabia to hint that it could be forced to intervene in Iraq if US forces left prematurely.

Iraq's slide into sectarian war and real fears of disintegration into separate Shi'ite, Sunni and Kurdish parts provide an overriding incentive for all regional states to co-operate. That Saudi Arabia and Iran, the two main powers in the Persian Gulf, have launched a bilateral dialogue to ease sectarian tensions is only one of the signs of the regional alarm over Iraq (see news11-SaudiOffensiveMar12-07).

The flood of refugees out of Iraq, many to Syria and Jordan, gives added urgency to the need for co-operation. The FT quoted an Iraqi government adviser as saying: "Everyone is starting to feel the pressure - that violence could spread to other countries".

Iraqi officials, including Shi'ites politicians close to Iran, want Tehran to back the government only - rather than individual groups like Jaysh al-Mahdi which runs Baghdad's main sectarian militia. Officials say Arab Gulf (GCC) states, particularly Saudi Arabia, should also step up action against the financing and recruiting of Sunni extremists, and lend more political support to the government, including sending ambassadors to Baghdad.

Syria will be pressed at the conference to curb the flow of Neo-Salafi jihadis through its border with Iraq and prevent former Ba'thists from using its territory as a base. But the main participants are heading to Baghdad with conflicting interests which do not always coincide with those of Iraq.

Both Iran and Syria have a huge stake in Iraq's stability. But they are likely to tie their support for Iraqi stability to concessions from the US on other fronts. Tehran, for example, is looking to open broader discussions with the US and other world powers over its controversial nuclear programme. The Alawite/Ba'thist dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad  in Syria wants to control the course of the current events in Lebanon and prevent a UN tribunal from trying members of the Damascus regime in the Feb. 14, 2005 assassination of former Lebanese PM Rafiq Hariri (see down11-SaudiOffensiveMar12-07).

The Bush administration, however, wants the conference to focus only on Iraq and insists Tehran must suspend its uranium enrichment programme before nuclear talks can begin. Damascus, which has been shunned by the US, also sees the Baghdad meeting as a rare opportunity to start a dialogue with Washington. But Syrian officials, who say the US should announce a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq if it wants Damascus's support, are cautious about the talks. The FT quoted an Iraqi official as saying: "Maybe the Americans are just calling us to this conference to say we've met with the Syrians but they have nothing to offer us".

Most other Arab states have backed the new US security plan for Baghdad, and share US enthusiasm for checking Iran's power in Iraq. Their priority has been to protect the interests of Iraq's Sunni minority, marginalised since the 2003 war.

Given the challenge of reconciling various concerns, the Iraqis are cautioning against expecting too much out of one meeting. Zebari said; "There won't be miracles. But it's a first step and we can build on it".

However, Iraq's Shi'ite leaders on March 8 expressed anger at criticism of them by the Arab League's Secretary-General Amr Mousa, warning that such remarks could overshadow the March 10-11 conference. On March 4 Mousa suggested that Arab states may take their recommendations on quelling the bloodshed in Iraq to the UNSC. Such a move would be widely interpreted as a failure of Maliki's government. The UIA said Mousa's comments amounted to "flagrant interference in Iraq's internal affairs" and "ignored the march of the Iraqi people to build a free and democratic state". It added: "At the same time we hope that the regional conference...in Baghdad...will not be shadowed by such stands" and will not have a "negative impact" on efforts to resolve the Iraq crisis.

At a press conference on March 8, the Shi'ite Deputy Speaker of parliament, Khalid al-Attiyah, denounced Mousa's comments, saying they could provoke "sedition and disputes among Iraqi people", adding: "We hope the Arab League will not be part of any dispute or quarrel inside Iraq which might encourage some parties to take some Arab states to their sides to accomplish their political desires.

Mousa's comments were made in Cairo during a meeting of Arab foreign ministers to discuss participation in the Baghdad conference. In a joint statement at the end of that meeting, the ministers said Iraq's leaders must take responsibility for defusing the sectarian violence by redrafting the constitution and rescinding laws which they said give preferential treatment to Shi'ites and Kurds. Such comments have reinforced Shi'ite fears that Iraq's Sunni neighbours will try to use the conference to pressure them into concessions to the Sunni minority.