Bracing for worst, hoping for better.

Byline: Anne Williams The Register-Guard

ELMIRA - Rob McGlothin says he's not "a real shifting kind of person," the type who flits from one opportunity to another.

The boyish 30-year-old has taught at Elmira High School for eight years, ever since graduating from the University of Oregon, and he had every intention of staying put for a good long time.

But McGlothin, the school's performing arts teacher, will say goodbye to his students today - not just for summer vacation but for good.

McGlothin, whose position was cut in the proposed 2003-04 budget, landed a plum job as band director at Sandy High School, a larger, Class 4A school that has kept music programs intact despite Oregon's recent fiscal turbulence. But leaving was the last thing on his mind a year ago.

"I absolutely love the kids out here," said McGlothin, who nearly lost his job in December when the district laid off five teachers because of state spending cuts to schools.

The past year, with the closure of Noti and Central elementary schools, the mid-year cuts and another round of bruising reductions looming, has been a heartbreaker in this small, rural district.

Fern Ridge schools will close for summer today, seven days earlier than planned. Like nearly half of Oregon's 198 school districts, the school board - with cooperation from employee unions - opted to shorten the academic year to help balance the budget after the state failed to come through with promised funds. Fern Ridge cut 13 days in all, the most in Lane County.

Around the state, battered districts are planning next year's budgets with the hope that things will be better. And there's reason to believe they will. Despite disappointing revenue forecasts, legislative leaders and Gov. Ted Kulongoski have pledged to spend a minimum of $4.9 billion and as much as $5.6 billion on K-12 education in the next biennium. Earlier estimates set the level as low as $4.2 billion - a full billion less than was budgeted for the current biennium.

In Fern Ridge and many other districts, though, there's little hint of optimism.

"It's been such a quiet place," McGlothin said of the high school. "It's really affected the kids. The outpouring of emotion from them has just been incredible."

Even students, who pay little attention to budgeting in a typical year, sound downcast. The district serves 1,800 students in four schools.

"I don't know, next year is my senior year and it's supposed to be, like, really exciting, but it's hard to feel that way," said Kayla Plumb, a thespian, school newspaper writer and junior class vice president. She wishes the district would cut days again next year, not teachers.

Sophomore Hannah Parker said a lot of kids she knows want to transfer to Eugene high schools, where they believe they can get a better mix of classes. She intends to stay in Elmira, though.

"If worst comes to worst, I'll just get home-schooled," she said.

"Worst" is exactly what the Fern Ridge district has prepared for, and it's not alone. Gun shy after this year, Fern Ridge and some other districts, including McKenzie and Junction City, settled on a statewide K-12 funding level at the low end, about $4.5 billion, for their budgeting. They're skeptical about promises of more.

"Our margin for error is very small," said Gene Morgan, who is retiring as principal of Elmira High. "We don't want to cut in the middle of the year again. That's absolutely the worst-case scenario."

Fern Ridge has also stuck with an earlier, higher estimate for the employer rate for the Public Employees Retirement System (PERS), despite recent legislation that could lower that rate substantially.

And lastly, Fern Ridge has not used the "accrual" option - an accounting maneuver OK'd by the state Legislature last year that allows districts to borrow funds from the next year to balance the current year's budget. Eugene, Springfield and Bethel are among the districts taking the accrual option, but many of the smaller districts have frowned upon the scheme.

"I don't think there's ever been a time when there's been as much diversity in terms of doing budgeting as this," said outgoing Bethel Superintendent Kent Hunsaker, who will be the next director of the Confederation of Oregon School Administrators. "It may be the most confusing time I've ever seen in my 24 years" as a school superintendent.

The cautious approach spells out a gloomy proposition for Fern Ridge next year. Should projections hold true, the district will eliminate 19 teachers and two principals, trim hours for classified positions, reduce funds for high school sports and slash supply and equipment budgets, business manager Kathy Hill said. The cuts add up to about $2.4 million out of an almost $10 million general fund budget.

Keeping spirits up has been "a tough issue," Morgan said.

"Our mantra has tried to focus on what we still can do, not on what we wish we had," he said.

With 13 days cut from the year, history teacher Brad Bellingham had to drop entire units. In his U.S. history class, for example, it was the Great Depression.

But he got through it, he said, and simply refuses to dwell on next year.

"For me, keeping up morale for me means denial," said Bellingham, who stays away from union issues and budget meetings at all costs. "I'm like an ostrich with my head in the sand. I don't want to hear about it. I will juggle around it and I will just plow forward."

The cuts have darkened the mood at Elmira Elementary School, too, Principal Mary Jo Simone said. For example, she said, the district used to set aside six days per year for teacher training - days that not only help teachers do their jobs better but also lift spirits and energy. This year, four days were budgeted, and all but one of those was cut.

"I think morale here at Elmira has been surprisingly good, considering all that we've been through," said Simone, who will divide her time between Elmira and Veneta elementary schools next year. "But you can see it in the faces, how tired and discouraged they are."

Among parents, the big concern is class sizes, and a few have talked about enrolling children in private schools or home-schooling them.

Sandy Smith, who has daughters at Elmira High and at Fern Ridge Middle School, said she's waiting to see just how bad it might be. This year was on the edge already, she said, with 33 in her third-grader's class. Smith volunteered to help with reading groups, she said, in part to keep her daughter from feeling so overwhelmed.

"If there's 40 in a classroom, I'm taking them out," she said.

Back at the high school, class sizes have already pushed the physical limits in some rooms, a problem hardly unique to Elmira. Given that drama classes are slated to be cut from the school day, McGlothin suggested that teachers with big groups could use the school's theater, recently remodeled with bond funds and featuring plush seating for 150.

While drama will still be offered, though now as an after-school activity, he said a lot of students have conflicts and will no longer be able to participate. And the drama coach, who will be paid a small stipend, won't be able to touch on the academic side of theater in much depth.

"It's too bad," he said. "It's really not that thorough for the kids."

Brittany Brown, a junior in McGlothin's beginning acting class, said she was taking the class for the credit, not so much out of a passion for the stage. But she said he's one of several excellent teachers whose loss will hurt kids.

"On the last day, I kind of think a lot of people are going to cry," she predicted.

RURAL SCHOOL BUDGETS

Fern Ridge isn't the only small district expecting to suffer more blows in the next school year. Here's a rundown of next year's budget scenario elsewhere in rural Lane County:

Blachly: By keeping spending in check, the district got through this year with no major cuts, Superintendent Bob De La Vergne said. Using a $4.78 billion assumption for statewide K-12 spending next year, the 2003-04 budget cuts a couple of hours a day of administrative and custodial time, five hours from the kitchen and part of a kindergarten teacher. Sports would be taken out of the general fund, but he expects the booster club to keep it intact.

Creswell: Creswell cut six days to get through this year, and - based on a $5.1 billion assumption - would eliminate from next year's general fund 17 teaching jobs and 13 classified jobs, as well as sports and extracurricular activities. The district has set up committees to explore other funding sources for activities and the possibility of merging with another school district.

Crow-Applegate-Lorane: After cutting 12 days this year, Superintendent Eileen Palmer guesses the worst is over. Still, two teaching positions would go unfilled, and a half-time instructional assistant would be lost. Funding for sports was reduced but should be made up by booster clubs. The budget is based on $4.8 billion.

Junction City: The district, which cut five days this year, would eliminate 25 staff positions, a mix of classified and certified, all sports at the middle school and some at the high school. The budget assumes a $4.5 billion spending level.

Lowell: Superintendent Roy Williams was proposing a $5.05 billion K-12 spending level, which would likely stave off additional cuts so long as the district could hire less experienced teachers to replace two retirees.

Mapleton: Did not return a phone call.

Marcola: The budget committee used a $4.5 billion assumption, but the school board is expected to revise it to about $5 billion prior to adoption. By making some cuts last July, the district may be able to keep current staffing levels, but the budget would reconfigure some teaching positions and trim athletics and supplies.

McKenzie: McKenzie cut 10 days this year and proposes doing the same next year, assuming a $4.5 billion K-12 spending level. The budget would also cut two educational assistants, counseling and library hours, one custodian and half the funds for extracurricular activities and sports.

Oakridge: Assuming a spending level of $4.78 billion, the budget would trim 8.65 teaching positions and 3.5 classified.

Pleasant Hill: The budget would cut as many as 12 days, as well as a "laundry list" that includes supply and equipment budgets, half a counselor, two educational assistants, a secretary and one music teacher. That assumes a $4.8 billion spending level.

Siuslaw: Siuslaw, which cut four days this year, is assuming a $5 billion spending level. That would still necessitate cutting one principal, five teaching positions, four classified positions and supply budgets next year.

South Lane: Assuming a $4.9 billion spending level, the budget would cut two teachers, a custodian and 2.4 administrative jobs. The district cut two days this year.

CAPTION(S):

Freshman Elizabeth Foster says farewell to Elmira High drama teacher Rob McGlothin, who will teach band in Sandy next year.