Bowl bid still isn't a sure thing.

Byline: BOB CLARK The Register-Guard

Two losses haven't changed one thing for Oregon: The Ducks still need a victory to be bowl eligible.

That might seem academic, with the Ducks 6-2 overall (2-2 in the Pac-10) and four games left, but it has been one of the items mentioned by UO coach Mike Bellotti each of the previous two weeks. And it remains to be accomplished.

`Maybe it takes a couple weeks of repetition for something to soak in,' Bellotti said.

Or maybe it takes getting to November, which has been a very good month for the Ducks in Bellotti's previous seven seasons. Oregon is 17-3 in November with Bellotti in charge, and there was also a Dec. 1 victory over Oregon State last year.

The November schedule this year starts with Stanford on Saturday, then becomes a Northwest slugfest as the Ducks meet Washington State, Washington and Oregon State in the final three weeks, with only the Huskies coming to Eugene.

Two of the three losses Bellotti teams have suffered in November were to the Beavers in Corvallis in 1998 and 2000, and this season concludes at Reser Stadium, too. The other November loss for Oregon in the past seven years was to Arizona State in 1997.

What will being bowl eligible earn the Ducks this season? Probably a trip to Phoenix, Las Vegas or San Jose.

With three teams ahead of Oregon in the Pac-10 standings, it would seem the Jan. 1 Rose Bowl (for the league champion), Holiday Bowl in San Diego on Dec. 27 and Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas, on Dec. 31 are out of reach, unless the Ducks win out and gain some help from teams playing the three title contenders.

The Pac-10's fourth team goes to the Insight Bowl (it dropped the .com) in Phoenix on Dec. 26, the No. 5 team plays in the Las Vegas Bowl on Dec. 25 and the No. 6 team is in the Silicon Valley Classic in San Jose on Dec. 31.

How sure is a bowl berth for a team with seven wins?

Three of the 10 conference teams are probably out of the picture. Stanford, at 2-5 with an 11-game schedule, must win out to have a winning record, a bowl requirement. Arizona is in a similar situation, at 3-5 with four games left.

California (5-4 overall) is ineligible under NCAA sanctions, and though the Bears have an appeal of the bowl ban at a hearing Nov. 8, there seems little likelihood of that penalty being overturned because of the lack of institutional control in the transgressions.

That leaves seven Pac-10 teams playing for six berths, and Washington (4-4) has one very difficult month to get itself bowl eligible.

A Pac-10 team can go to a bowl with a 6-6 record, but only to fulfill one of the contractual obligations to the six bowls, and only if no teams with a winning record are available. That means, for instance, that if a team is 6-6 overall and a clear sixth in the conference standings, another Pac-10 team at 7-5 overall but farther down in the standings would take that bowl berth.

What happens if the Pac-10 did have seven teams with at least seven wins each?

The league could then benefit from the Mountain West not being able to fill all of its contracted bowl spots, which would leave an opening in either the Seattle Bowl or San Francisco Bowl.

The Mountain West is tied by contracts to four bowls, but all but two of its teams, Colorado State and Air Force, seem headed for losing records. The Mountain West's top two teams would then play in the Liberty and Las Vegas bowls, and the Seattle Bowl (Dec. 30) and San Francisco Bowl (Dec. 31) would be looking for teams, and probably jump at the chance to land a Pac-10 team.

At the top of the standings, there is also always the possibility that the Pac-10 could land two berths in Bowl Championship Series games, though currently that seems a long shot at best.

The Pac-10 champion goes to the Rose Bowl, unless it is ranked first or second in the final BCS poll. In this week's BCS rankings, Washington State is eighth and USC 11th, so they have some teams to jump.

`It would take a series of things to happen, but we've seen scenarios like that in the past few years,' said Jim Muldoon, the Pac-10 associate commissioner.

If, for instance, WSU did climb to No. 1 or 2 and earn a berth in the Fiesta Bowl on Jan. 3 to play for the national championship game, then USC, if the Trojans won out to finish 10-2 and had a win over Notre Dame, might be of prime interest to the Rose Bowl as an at-large team.

`We would certainly encourage (the Rose Bowl) to like them,' Muldoon said.

Or, if WSU does take the Rose Bowl berth, USC might be a strong enough team nationally to interest the Sugar Bowl or Orange Bowl, if either of those other BCS games had an at-large berth because they lost a team to the Fiesta Bowl.

The Cougars and Arizona State (both 4-0 in the Pac-10) will play on Saturday in Pullman, Wash., for the inside track to the Rose Bowl. If WSU beats the Sun Devils, the Cougars have clear control of the race, having beaten both of the teams with one loss.

If ASU beats the Cougars, however, USC (4-1) would be very much back in the race because the Trojans have a Nov. 16 home game against ASU. If the Cougars, Trojans and Sun Devils all finish 7-1 in the Pac-10, and each had beaten one of the other co-titlists, the tiebreaker would be nonconference records.

In nonconference results, ASU's loss to Nebraska is not counted because it is one of those special preseason games, so the Sun Devils are 3-1 like WSU. And each has a nonconference win over a Division I-AA team, which doesn't count as much as a win over a Division I-A team. USC is 2-1 in nonconference games, with Notre Dame to play on Nov. 30.

In the Pac-10 tiebreaker system, a three-team tie is broken first by eliminating one of the teams and then using head-to-head results of the remaining two teams.

OREGON UPDATE

GAME TIME SET: Saturday's kickoff will be at 12:30 p.m. after Stanford officials turned down a request by Oregon to change the start time to 6:15 p.m., which would have allowed for an Oregon Sports Network telecast. Because the game is at 12:30 p.m., it can't be televised locally because it would conflict with an ABC telecast of the Arizona State at Washington State game.

The start time for Oregon's game at Washington State the following week remains to be decided, but the game will be televised, either at 12:30 p.m. or 3:30 p.m. The time will be set Sunday when ABC makes its choice for a 12:30 p.m. telecast on Nov. 9, with its options either the Ducks and Cougars or California at ASU.

ABC already has chosen USC at Stanford for a 4 p.m. telecast on Nov. 9 but will use one of its `six-day selections' for its 12:30 p.m. game. Of the two Pac-10 games under consideration by ABC, the one not chosen by ABC will be televised at 3:30 or 4 p.m., either by the Fox Sports Network or TBS.

NEXT GAME: Saturday against Stanford at Autzen Stadium at 12:30 p.m. TV: No live telecast; delayed on Oregon Sports Network at 11:30 p.m.