Both Clinton and Obama Ahead of McCain among Registered Voters.

Obama Does Slightly Better among Independents than Clinton

ROCHESTER, N.Y. -- While there may not yet be a Democratic nominee, the Republican Party and Senator John McCain should not rest easy. Whether the final nominee is Senator Hillary Clinton or Senator Barack Obama, if the election were held today, the Democrats are ahead in the race for the White House. Just about two in five (39%) of registered voters would vote for Hillary Clinton while 35 percent of registered voters say they would vote for John McCain. If Barack Obama was the nominee, two in five (40%) registered voters would vote for him while 35 percent would vote for John McCain. For each of these pairings, 15 percent of registered voters say they would not vote for either of these candidates.

These are some of the results of a Harris Poll of 2,549 U.S. adults surveyed online by Harris Interactive[R] between March 14 and 24, 2008. Like all polls conducted well before an election, this should not be read as a prediction, rather as a snap shot of the presidential "horse race".

The Party and Ideology Breakdown

Regardless of whether he is running against Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, John McCain manages to have about seven in ten Republicans voting for him (70% versus Clinton and 69% versus Obama). And, each of the potential Democratic nominees manages to hold onto two-thirds of their partisans (68% for Clinton and 66% for Obama). Where Barack Obama does have a small edge is among the Independents. One-third (33%) of Independents would vote for him while 28 percent would vote for John McCain. Three in ten (30%) Independents would vote for Hillary Clinton while, in this match-up, 29 percent would vote for John McCain.

While Republicans are standing behind their candidate, the support, while still a majority, is softer for John McCain among Conservatives. Three in five Conservatives (60%) would vote for McCain against Obama while 57 percent would vote for McCain against Clinton. Independents are closely divided between the candidates, but Moderates are more likely to support the Democrats. Two in five (41%) Moderates would vote for Senator Clinton and 28 percent for Senator McCain. Slightly over two in five (43%) Moderates would vote for Senator Obama with 27 percent voting for Senator McCain.

So What?

The primary fight is still ongoing among the Democrats with some key states left to vote. But, at the moment, the both Democrats are ahead of Senator McCain among registered voters, Senator Clinton by four percentage points and Senator Obama by five percentage points. However, as the primaries continue, a lot can happen that can change the momentum of a race - both for the two Democrats and looking ahead for the general election. After the Pennsylvania primary in a few weeks, this could be an altogether different race. Or, one that looks the same. It's been that kind of election year so far.

TABLE 1

CLINTON VERSUS MCCAIN

"If the national election for the president of the United States were to be held today, for whom would you vote for?"

[TABLE OMITTED]

TABLE 2

OBAMA VERSUS MCCAIN

"If the national election for the president of the United States were to be held today, for whom would you vote for?"

[TABLE OMITTED]

Methodology

This Harris Poll([R]) was conducted online within the United States between March 14 and 24, 2008 among 2,549 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

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About Harris Interactive

Harris Interactive is a global leader in custom market research. With a long and rich history in multimodal research, powered by our science and technology, we assist clients in achieving business results. Harris Interactive serves clients globally through our North American, European and Asian offices and a network of independent market research firms.