Boomers' retirements may mean bust for economy.

Byline: The Register-Guard

The ripple through Lane County's labor market as baby boomers start to retire threatens to turn into a tsunami in the next 10 years, slamming a range of industries, including wood products, trucking, machinery manufacturing, education and health care, according to a new report on Lane County's work force.

Local employers could face severe skills gaps - especially in the blue-collar trades - when seasoned veterans retire, taking with them their expertise, experience and industry contacts.

It is the county's version of a much broader national - indeed, international - trend.

The exodus of baby boomers (born from 1946 to 1964) is not just another of the temporary skills gaps employers have dealt with before, labor experts say.

"The depth of the loss and the depth of the gap is much greater," said Chuck Forster, executive director of the Lane Workforce Partnership, which will release its entire 60-page Lane County State of the Workforce Report on April 1. An executive summary is available now at www.laneworkforce.org.

It's a major demographic shift - unrivaled in recent memory, said Brian Rooney, a labor economist with the Oregon Employment Department, which supplied much of the data in the work force report.

It could even threaten the region's recovering economy, he said.

"The biggest worry is that we're going to have this loss of experience - especially managerial and administrative experience," particularly in blue-collar industries, that could reduce a company's efficiency, Rooney said. "There is the possibility that we would lose some employment in those industries, if they can't find the people."

Employers representing a broad range of industries acknowledge the looming crisis:

"We may have a perfect storm developing here," said Jim Geisinger, executive vice president of Salem-based Associated Oregon Loggers. "The economy in Oregon is getting stronger, which means there's more competition among employers to find good people. There are a large number of people retiring in the wood products industry, and their children are not making the same (career) choices as their parents.'

The typical machinist is in his 50s, and as time goes on, "good machinists are getting harder to find," said Jim Miller, owner of Eugene-based Precision Machine and Manufacturing Inc. He estimates that roughly half of his 35-person work force will retire in the next 15 years.

At PeaceHealth, Eugene's largest private employer and parent company of Sacred Heart Medical Center, the wave of retirements "will affect all levels - from top executives to housekeepers," said Cathleen Coontz, work force development coordinator. "All of those people are vital to our functioning, so we'll need to replace at every level."

Some employers, such as schools and hospitals, have already faced worker shortages over the past few years and established in-house training and mentorship programs for new workers.

Wally Bryant, human resources director for the Eugene School District, estimates that the district lost and replaced about 30 percent of its teachers and 35 percent of its administrators from academic year 2001-'02 through 2003-'04. Springfield schools also managed heavy turnover.

Bryant doesn't anticipate future retirements in education coming all in one big wave. "It's just going to be a steady progression in the next few years," he said.

With numerous nearby colleges and universities churning out teaching candidates and Eugene area's reputation for livability, Bryant said he doesn't expect to have problems filling vacant positions.

Employers such as manufacturers, however, face the double whammy of an aging workforce and waning interest by the younger generation in work they perceive as noisy, grimy, uncreative and unstable.

It's unknown whether training programs can adequately prepare younger workers, and whether younger people actually want to go into the most severely affected occupations, Rooney said.

"The echo of the baby boom is just entering the work force now," he said. "But it would take years for them to get up to speed - if they're willing to take those jobs."

- Sherri Buri McDonald