Boom Won't Go Bust Soon.

New York City's building boom will last at least until 2003, according to a report issued by the New York Building Congress.

"We haven't had this much construction since the 1960s," said Regina Armstrong, Principal of Urbanomics, Inc. who did the report.

It is the first time the report, called the New York City Construction Outlook, has been done but officials are planning for to do similar reports in future years. Prepared by the Building Congress and the New York Building Foundation, the report contains figures for construction spending from 1995 through part of 2000, with projections for the rest of the year through 2003, said Richard Anderson, President of the Building Congress.

"It's a three-year forecast of what we can expect in the construction industry," Anderson said. "It's a very rosy outlook."

Unlike other reports, the Building Congress report was compiled using data from local and state government budgets and private developments that have been approved or are being planned. Sources of statistical data include F.W. Dodge, New York State Department of Labor, the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, the Real Estate Board of New York, Urbanomics, and the U.S. Bureau of the Census, officials said.

"This document is based on work that is committed or work that is in hand," said Jeffrey Levy, Chairman of the Building Congress and President and Chief Operating Officer of EMCOR Group, Inc.

Construction spending is expected to reach $16.4 billion in 2000, a 38 percent increase from 1999 when spending totaled $11.9 billion. In 1995, total construction spending was $9.2 billion. According to analyses, spending will remain high for several more years, averaging about $16 million through 2003, according to the report.

"Five years ago we were wondering where the work would come from, now we're wondering how long it would last," Levy said.

Residential construction in New York City is expected to reach 16,000 units in 2000, up from just over 12,000 in 1999 and more than three times the number added in 1995. Construction has risen steadily in the last four years and is expected to continue increasing through 2003. Non-residential construction is anticipated to exceed 14 million square feet in 2000, up from 10.8 million last year and 5.4 million in 1995, the report states.

"In today's economic climate, there is no shortage of work for architects, engineers, contractors, skilled labor, and other building trades," the report states.

Beyond the rosy outlook, however, the report points to three problems that could put a damper on the city's economic outlook, including a labor shortage, an office space crunch, and a dearth of infrastructure spending, the report states.

Most of the spending has been. devoted to maintaining infrastructure but with a growing economy bringing new jobs to the city, more spending is needed on subways, schools, and roads, according to the report.

"The public infrastructure is not keeping up with private development," Armstrong said.

Construction industry employment in New York City is expected to exceed 120,000 in 2000, up from 113,600 last year. In 1995, employment was 90,200 and has been rising each year since. Based on projected construction volume, the demand for workers by 2003 could exceed supply by 30,000 or more, the report states.

"The shortage threatens to intensify in the coming years as a large percentage of the workforce nears retirement, and not enough young New Yorkers are being trained to replace them," the report states.

Manhattan office vacancy rates have fallen from 16 percent in 1995 to 5.5 percent in 2000. Although 13.6 million square feet of office space is either planned or under construction, most of this space is pre-leased and does not increase available office space enough to accommodate the projected need for 40 million square feet by 2010, the report states.

"To keep the economy growing and to retain corporations that have long formed the bedrock of the city's business community, development of additional office space is vital," the report states.