Blooming and booming: Peter Willems reports on soaring poppy cultivation in Afghanistan and the government's effort to clamp down on what has become the country's main engine for economic growth.

IT WAS A MOMENTOUS OCCASION WHEN Hamid Karzai was sworn in on 7 December as the first Afghan president elected by the people. Hundreds of local and foreign dignitaries gathered at the Presidential Palace in Kabul, including US Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld and Vice-President Dick Cheney, the most senior US administration official to visit Afghanistan since the Taliban regime was toppled in late 2001.

"We have left a hard, dark past behind us and today we open a new chapter in our history, in a spirit of friendship with the international community," said Karzai, who captured 55% of the votes in the October poll. "We have a duty before our people to deliver, to the best of our ability, an Afghanistan that is free, stable, prosperous and enjoying a dignified place in the region and the world."

But just days before Karzai's inauguration, the United Nations released a disturbing report on drug trafficking in Afghanistan, a business that will challenge Karzai's efforts to build security and stability and bring new prosperity to the war-torn country.

According to the Afghanistan Opium Survey of 2004 by the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), farmers growing poppies in Afghanistan jumped dramatically to near record levels last year. Land used for poppy cultivation reached 131,000 hectares in 2004, up 64% from the previous year, and representing a dramatic increase from just 8,000 hectares in 2001. Harvesting in 2004 yielded an additional 17% over 2003, which produced 4,200 metric tons. The UN report noted that poppies are now being planted in each of the country's 32 provinces, to supply 87% of the world's total opium supply.

Fear is rising that the drug business, alongside terrorist attacks and the presence of the remaining Taliban fighters still entrenched in the south, is a threat to Afghanistan's security.

"In Afghanistan, drugs are now a clear and present danger," says Antonio Maria Costa, executive director of UNODC. "The fear that Afghanistan might degenerate into a narco-state is slowly becoming a reality as corruption in the public sector, the diehard ambition of local warlords, and the complicity of local investors are becoming a factor of Afghan life."

Up to now, Britain has been responsible for managing international efforts to curb opium production. But at the end of November, the US government stepped in to implement a more aggressive plan: Drug enforcement agencies asked Congress for $780m to tackle the drug business. The new US effort will include increasing the eradication of poppies, arresting and prosecuting traffickers, and providing alternative crops for farmers.

The new Afghan government said opium production has become its number one concern. Government spokesman Jawed Ludin confirmed that the war on drugs is now the Karzai regime's top priority, and "perhaps more important than terrorism".

"The government is now getting involved in more serious activities to eradicate poppy cultivation," says Syed Alamudin Atheer, deputy director of Afghanistan's Counter Narcotics Directorate. "The Ministry of Interior now meets with political figures and influential people from different provinces who are willing to cooperate in ending opium production. The government plans to see a drastic drop in cultivation next year."

But the fight against opium production will face serious challenges. Farmers complain they have not received assistance in finding an alternative crop, and even if there was help, some of them might be reluctant to switch. Even though the price of a kilogram of opium has fallen recently--from $283 to $92 per kilo--the income from opium for farmers is still 12 times more than they can earn from growing wheat.

"Alternative livelihoods do take a certain amount of time since large rural development measures have to be comprehensive and include infrastructure, like road construction, support to irrigation systems, building health clinics, providing training, support to schools, as well as support to agriculture, livestock and off-farm income generation," says Doris Buddendberg, head of UNODC's Afghanistan operations.

BREAKING THE PATTERN

Analysts have expressed concern that those involved in the profitable drugs trade probably include warlords, provincial governors, and police and army officials.

"Various parts of Afghanistan have been captured by regional powerbrokers who oppose reform," explains William Byrd, a senior economic advisor for The World Bank. "Their operations are fuelled by the opium trade and bolstered by their ability to rule illegitimately by force, relatively unchecked, outside Kabul."

UNODC warns that organised crime involved in the drug trade has become well established in the last few years. Costa says that Afghanistan, once only a supplier of the raw material, now has enough labs to convert three-quarters of its opium into heroin.

With a new mafia established in Afghanistan, some believe violence will inevitably increase as the financial stakes are raised. "Drug lords might aim at destabilising the security of Afghanistan to try and continue their business," says Atheer. "There could also be terrorist activities related to drugs."

The recently established Counter-Narcotics Police of Afghanistan has successfully destroyed a number of poppy-producing fields this year. But so far, no drug lords have been arrested and taken to court. Afghanistan's judicial system is still in the process of being developed, and according to a UNODC official, it will take time for the fledgling structure to be able to handle cases related to the drug business.

Another worry is that attempts to dismantle the drugs trade may generate resistance within the community. UNODC estimates that 10% of the country's population, some 2.3m Afghanis, is now involved in the drugs business. Opium production pulls in around $2.8bn annually and takes up 60% of the nation's gross domestic product. "Opium is the main engine for economic growth and the strongest bond among previously quarrelsome people," says the UN report.

A NEW STRATEGY

The new US strategy to fight the drugs business will not only include sending specialists to Afghanistan but will also involve US and Nato forces. Around 18,000 US troops are battling with the remaining Taliban fighters, Al Qaeda, and other militant groups, while 9,000 Nato-led peacekeeping forces operate to maintain security.

Some are concerned that the US military, which has now entered its fourth year of battling the remnants of the Taliban and searching for Osama bin Laden in the south, may face trouble on additional fronts. Brigadier General Nick Pounds, head of Nato's provincial civil military teams in Afghanistan, confirms, "All military are concerned about counter narcotics because it could create a parallel conflict."

To help boost support for the fight against fighting opium production, President Karzai declared a jihad or "holy war" on the drug industry two days after he was sworn in.

"Opium cultivation and heroin production in Afghanistan is more dangerous than the invasion and the attack of the Soviets on our country, more dangerous than the factional fighting, more dangerous than terrorism," said Karzai. "Just as our people fought a holy war against the Soviets, so we will wage jihad against poppies."

But experts predict the war on drugs will take time. Unlike the Taliban regime, that was able to reduce opium production near the end of its rule, the new government and international assistance will face many obstacles.

"It will be a long and difficult process," says UNODC's Costa. "It cannot be done ruthlessly as it was done by the Taliban, nor with mindless disregard for the country's poverty."