Blair: we want regime change.

The Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) in Abuja (5-8 December) resolved to "encourage and assist the process of national reconciliation" in Zimbabwe. But to the British prime minister, Tony Blair, (as he told parliament on 9 December on his return from Abuja), national reconciliation should lead to regime change in Zimbabwe. "It is in [the] interests [of Zimbabwe's neighbours] not to support Mugabe and the Zimbabwean regime, but to facilitate national reconciliation in the interests of changing the regime," Blair said. On that one afternoon in parliament, Blair used "regime change in Zimbabwe" seven times. Here is an abridged version of the exchanges in the House of Commons (recorded by Hansard).

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Tony Blair (prime minister, Labour Party):

"The meeting [CHOGM] considered the situation in the two countries that have been suspended from the councils of the Commonwealth: Pakistan and Zimbabwe ... Where Pakistan has moved forward since Commonwealth leaders last met, Zimbabwe has gone backwards. The country was suspended from the Commonwealth in March 2002, shortly after elections that the Commonwealth's own observers concluded were neither free nor fair.

"Since then, there has been yet more violence and intimidation against the opposition MDC party, against lawyers and human rights activists, and, indeed, against anyone speaking up against President Mugabe's oppressive policies. Zimbabwe's only independent daily newspaper, The Daily News, has been closed down, despite court orders in its favour.

"Meanwhile ZANU-PF's ruinous economic policies are driving the country further and further into chaos. Inflation is now over 500%, and Zimbabwe's GDP has halved in five years. The IMF decided last week to begin procedures to expel Zimbabwe because of its appalling economic policies.

"Half the population now needs food aid--but it is worth saying that Britain remains the leading cash donor for the UN's humanitarian programmes in Zimbabwe. In the last two years, we have given $100m in food aid to the people of Zimbabwe.

"In those circumstances, I and others argued that it was inconceivable that Zimbabwe could be readmitted to the councils of the Commonwealth, and that, on the contrary, it should remain suspended until we saw concrete evidence of a return to democracy, respect for human rights and the rule of law--the very principles on which the Commonwealth is founded.

"I am glad to say that this approach was agreed ... This is the outcome that we wanted. It is also the outcome that Mr Mugabe worked assiduously to avoid. Incidentally, it gives the lie to his most outrageous claims that the Commonwealth's approach to Zimbabwe is a white conspiracy led by the UK against black Africa.

"The fact is that every single Commonwealth country signed up to the Abuja statement on Zimbabwe, including the other 19 African members of the Commonwealth, despite the strongly held doubts of some of those countries. Nor did any African member of the Commonwealth take up Mr Mugabe's invitation to boycott the summit meeting. The outcome in Abuja was hard-fought, but in the end it was a victory for Commonwealth values.

"Mr Mugabe's reaction--to withdraw Zimbabwe from the Commonwealth--shows clearly that he does not accept Commonwealth principles. It was a decision taken without regard to the wishes or well-being of the Zimbabwean people. ZANU-PF's isolation will be increased, but the strong bonds that exist between the Zimbabwean people and the rest of the Commonwealth remain. There will always be a place for a democratic Zimbabwe in the Commonwealth ..."

[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]

Michael Howard (leader of the opposition, Conservative Party):

"The Harare Declaration of 1991 reaffirmed the Commonwealth's values--the protection of human rights; equal opportunities for all regardless of race, colour, creed or political belief; equality for women; democracy; the rule of law; and the independence of the judiciary. Those values are of supreme importance.

"Clearly, however, one country has flagrantly and blatantly breached those values. I congratulate the prime minister on the strong stand that he took in Abuja to resist the efforts of those who wanted to lift Zimbabwe's suspension from the councils of the Commonwealth ...

"In view of President Mugabe's decision to leave the Commonwealth, will the prime minister say what is the current status of the Committee [of Seven] established by the heads of government to examine the way forward in Zimbabwe? Does President Obasanjo's mandate to encourage and facilitate continued progress and Zimbabwe's return to the Commonwealth still stand? There appears to be a good deal of confusion about the Committee's future status. Will the prime minister clarify the situation for the House?

"Then there is the position of the European Union. Does the prime minister understand that EU sanctions are still not tough enough? Why do they not include the business men who still bankroll Mugabe? Will the prime minister press for their inclusion at the EU summit in Rome this weekend?

"When will a resolution be tabled in the United Nations? The Commonwealth's leverage is diminished following Mugabe's decision to withdraw: is there not now a powerful case for the UN to become more actively involved?

Tony Blair: "It is important to approach this issue with two things in mind. We are guided to a large extent--I think rightly--by what the MDC and other opposition groups in Zimbabwe say. We try, therefore, to keep whatever measures we are taking in line with what they are asking us to take. They are on the ground and they know best what helps, and the situation in Zimbabwe is such that, in the end, it is from within that the main change will come.

"It is for that reason that on sanctions, for example, we have tried to proceed in a way that such groups support. They do not support general sanctions against the population; they support targeted sanctions, and that is what we have been trying to ensure are put into effect, and that is what we managed to get the EU to agree to.

"We keep under review the number of people whom we can extend the sanctions to, and it is certainly worth considering business people and others if we can identify measures that will be effective.

"We have put this issue before the UN Commission on Human Rights on many occasions, but the problem with a Security Council resolution is that--again, to be blunt about it,--the difference of view applies between most members of the Commonwealth and some of the states in the [Southern African] region.

"Unless the states in the region are prepared to say that they believe that a UN resolution would be advantageous, it is quite difficult to get one through the UN.

"We try in every way that we can, including through the statements that were forthcoming from Kofi Annan [the UN secretary general] recently, to put the maximum pressure on Zimbabwe. In the end, there is only one thing that will work--the pressure that we can put on. We can do that by sending signals, and that is why it is important that the Commonwealth sends such a signal.

"However, we must do that by being honest with people that there is a limit to what can be done from the outside. It is very important that we give every support to democratic groups in Zimbabwe and, in addition, that we work even harder on persuading the other countries in the region that it is in their interests not to support Mugabe and the Zimbabwean regime, but to facilitate national reconciliation in the interests of changing the regime."

Charles Kennedy (leader, Liberal-Democrats):

"Like the government, we think that, obviously, it would be infinitely preferable to see a democratic, stable and sane Zimbabwe remaining part of the Commonwealth family of nations, but given the circumstances, the obviously worsening conditions on the ground and the fact that there are no signs of the Zimbabwean regime seeking to improve their deplorable human rights record, the Commonwealth had no choice but to continue the suspension. That is a sad but inevitable fact.

"Over time, we on the Liberal Democrat benches urged the government to take a harder line with Zimbabwe and Mugabe at an earlier stage, but the sad fact of the matter is that Mugabe's crass, chaotic and indeed, despotic administration of his regime and the ruinous effect that is having on that country have led to this sad and inevitable outcome.

"However, I would encourage the prime minister, given what he said a moment ago, to take every opportunity to remind people that diplomatically on the international stage, Britain very much wants to keep the UN resolution route open and to encourage others to see the wisdom of that approach."

[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]

Tony Blair: "First, in respect of the human rights record, it may be worth reporting to the House the information given by the Zimbabwe Human Rights NGO Forum, which is 16 local Zimbabwean human rights groups that come together and collate information on what is happening in Zimbabwe.

"In the first nine months of this year [2003], there was politically motivated violence--9 murders, 6 attempted murders, 20 death threats, over 300 assaults, almost 400 acts of political intimidation, almost 400 acts of torture, and almost 700 unlawful arrests or detentions. Those are the things that [the NGO Forum] can collate as directly politically motivated acts of violence. The truth of the matter is that things have got worse.

"As for how hard a line we take: as I say, we try to march in step with the MDC and with other organisations there, with which we remain in contact."

Caroline Spelman (Conservative):

"The prime minister referred to $100m worth of food aid to Zimbabwe over the last two years, but aid agencies are not confident that it is getting into the right hands. Will the government support our call for UN monitors to be installed to ensure that the food aid reaches those who it should reach?"

Tony Blair: "We are making every effort to do so. There are concerns about whether the food aid is reaching the people it should. Monitors are there now, and the important thing is to make sure that we take their reports back and act on them. We are doing that, but it is a constant struggle because of the attitude of the Zimbabwean government. But I can assure the honourable lady that the issue of independent monitoring has already been taken up. The difficulty is that it is sometimes hard to make it work on the ground."

David Winnick (Labour):

"Is it not the case that when Labour members campaigned continuously against the illegal regime of [Ian] Smith, we were not told by Mugabe and his friends that we were antiblack. The accusation in those days of the settlers and their friends--some of whom were in the House of Commons--was that we were anti-white.

"If a Commonwealth country that has abolished the rule of law and replaced it with outright violence were allowed to remain in the Commonwealth without any suspension, what would be the point of the Commonwealth?"

Tony Blair: "My honourable friend is absolutely right. That is why we decided that the suspension had to remain. It is worth pointing out two other things. First, in respect of land reform, which is often mentioned by the government of Zimbabwe and others, it cannot be stressed too often that we provided millions of pounds of help to Zimbabwe for land reform back in the 1980s.

"We have maintained the position that money can be set aside for land reform in Zimbabwe provided that it is channelled through the UN development programme, so that we can be sure that it is spent on proper land reform and not secreted away by Mr Mugabe, his henchmen and others. That is why the issue of land reform is, in the end, a diversion from the real problem of bad governance in Zimbabwe.

"Secondly, regarding the allegations of colonialism, they are particularly absurd if directed against this government not merely because of our commitment to people in Africa and the people of Zimbabwe, but because it was our party [Labour] that, although not in government, was--and I am proud to say this--at the forefront of calling for sanctions against South Africa when apartheid was in place."

Douglas Hogg (Conservative):

"I am sure that the prime minister would agree that many of Mr Mugabe's acts, both past and present, are not just morally offensive, but probably constitute crimes under national and international law. That being so, will the prime minister tell the House what conversations he has had with heads of government to ensure that Mr Mugabe and his henchmen are made personally accountable before a court for their past and present offences?"

Tony Blair: It is, of course, important that they [Mugabe and his officials] be held accountable for what they have done, but the main objective of most people is to put a proper democratic regime in place in Zimbabwe and thus to have a mechanism through which the people of Zimbabwe can take the action that needs to be taken."

[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]

Rev. Martin Smyth (Ulster Unionist Party):

"I recognise the complex situation in Africa and welcome the positive steps that have been taken by the Commonwealth conference ... I also wish to underline the point that was made earlier about stability in Zimbabwe. The prime minister said that he wants a government for that country which can deal with the problem under their own laws, but unless we indict Mugabe he will continue to use the laws of Zimbabwe to oppress his people rather than to release them."

Tony Blair: "On the latter point, it is important that we keep up maximum pressure to get the regime changed in the only way that is likely to happen, and then the Zimbabwean people can address those issues."

Andrew Mackay (Conservative):

"Clearly the prime minister was right to say that maximum pressure must be put on the Mugabe regime. We must also take careful account of the views of the MDC [which] tells us that there should be further sharp sanctions, especially against the crooked businessmen who are keeping the regime going. So it is disappointing to hear the prime minister respond to my right honourable friend, the leader of the opposition, by saying that he would bear the need for sharper sanctions, because that is the way to bring the regime down."

Tony Blair: We have pressed for tougher sanctions the entire time, and [in] February [2004] when the EU reconsiders its position, we will do so again. We have targeted the assets of the 79 leading members of the regime, but we have managed to freeze only [pounds sterling]500,000 worth of assets. That is because those involved ship their assets out to other countries when they are targeted.

It is, therefore, not only a problem for the EU, but for other countries as well. We need to ensure that the sanctions we have in place are more effective, because they are not fully effective at present."

Norman Lamb (Liberal Democrat):

"What real progress is being made on NEPAD? The first big test for the initiative is Zimbabwe. Is there any evidence that African countries are getting to grips with the importance of demonstrating that they are making progress?"

Tony Blair: "NEPAD includes a peer review group mechanism which has now been established. Obviously, Zimbabwe will not qualify, but other African countries accept that their only route to greater development aid and assistance is through proper governance.

"Zimbabwe is the worst aspect of what is happening in Africa, but several countries--including Nigeria, Ghana and Kenya--have been through that democratic process and changed their governance. They are now sitting around the table, and that is all to the good. Other countries such as The Gambia have returned to full, proper democracy."

Clive Soley (Labour):

"Does the prime minister agree that the already significant influence of the Commonwealth would be greatly increased if it developed a more coherent and wide-ranging policy to deal with failed and failing states? If the Commonwealth were able to do that, it would be easier not only to deal with the case of Zimbabwe, but also to set a model for others."

Tony Blair: "That is absolutely right, and I hope that the Commonwealth does so. I am afraid that there is a dispute between some people, especially in the [Southern African] region, who fear that Zimbabwe will move into greater chaos, which will have a spillover effect on their countries and damage them and the region. Although I think that it is misguided, there is a strong feeling to that effect.

"My view--and I believe the majority view of the Commonwealth, not us the so-called white countries but the Commonwealth as a whole--is that unless a strong stand is taken on Zimbabwe, it will be very difficult to convince people that Africa as a whole is making the right progress towards development.

"That is why I have always said that Zimbabwe and what is happening there drags the reputation of Africa down, unfairly in many respects, so it is important that the problem is dealt with from within Africa itself."

Dr Julian Lewis (Conservative):

Given the dependence of Zimbabwe on South Africa, will the prime minister expand on the reasons, at which he hinted a few moments ago, for South Africa's reluctance to take action against the atrocious Mugabe regime? In that connection, what representations are the government making to South Africa, and have they thought of trying to involve former President Mandela in the process?"

[GRAPHIC OMITTED]

Tony Blair: "Obviously, there has been a disagreement about how to deal with Zimbabwe and it is important to work primarily through the South African government. There is a view--at least in parts of Southern Africa--that if Zimbabwe were suspended from the Commonwealth we would somehow be unable to engage with Zimbabwe itself.

"That is just a disagreement, however, and we have to carry on trying to work through it in a reasonably diplomatic way, as we need to reach a consensus in the Commonwealth.

"It is fair to say that in the end, despite the reservations that South Africa had, it did not oppose the statement about continuing the suspension. The debate is continuing, but it is best continued on the basis that we are two strong allies who have a difference of view but that we will try to reach agreement.

"I only hope that people understand that the state of things in Zimbabwe is so bad that in the end the impact will be felt in the entire region, and that the best way of dealing with things is to realise that until that regime is changed, the situation will continue.

"If the regime is changed, it would be as well that the people who then come to office understand that the Commonwealth and other parts of the world actually stood by them."

Henry Billingham (Conservative):

"There is certainly widespread support in the House for the stance that the prime minister took on Zimbabwe during the conference, not least because the appalling regime of Mugabe is hitting the poorest in that community.

"However, I think that there is disappointment on the opposition benches at the prime minister's reply to [Dr Lewis], as surely the one person who could really bring pressure to bear is Thabo Mbeki.

"The prime minister mentioned the MDC; it, too, wants Thabo Mbeki to take a much more leading role in getting a grip on things. Why does the prime minister feel that Mbeki is being so weak, so half-hearted and so negative?"

Tony Blair: "If we want the president of South Africa to play a role, we do best to deal with the situation in a way that helps him to do so. If I can put things diplomatically where there is disagreement--as there is over this matter--rather than engaging in an attack on the South African position, it is best simply to indicate why we feel so strongly that the right way to deal with the situation is to change the regime in Zimbabwe and to work with other countries to ensure that.

"I can tell the honourable gentleman that we make those points very strongly indeed, but there is a way to do it and we must be careful about that."

Andrew Robathan (Conservative):

"I am sure that we all agree entirely with what the prime minister has said about Zimbabwe, but may I take him back to the maximum pressure to which he referred earlier? How about adopting the suggestion made by the Select Committee on Foreign Affairs and withdrawing the honorary knighthood that Mugabe was given in 1994?

"How about raising the matter at the UN Security Council where it can be debated in world forums and the world can see--as can Zimbabweans and black Africans--the contempt in which Mugabe is held?

"How about extending the sanctions list to the same people as New Zealand does, so that the immediate families of Mugabe's cronies cannot travel around Britain spending their ill-gotten gains?"

Tony Blair: "As I said earlier, when the sanctions come up, we should certainly consider how they could be extended without giving people false solace about how effective they might be in sinking the regime. "I will certainly consider the honorary knighthood, although I somewhat question how great the impact of the honourable gentleman's suggestion would be on President Mugabe."

Andrew Robathan:

It is a symbol.

Tony Blair: "All these things are symbols, but in the end the most important thing is, as I say, to work to ensure that the pressure does not just come from here, but from within the region. In respect of the UN, I said before, we raise this issue regularly at the UN. It is important, however, that we do not put a resolution before the UN Security Council, in particular, unless we are sure that it would succeed because, if we put one and it failed, the impact would be adverse."

Harry Barnes (Labour):

"On Zimbabwe, does not Nigeria itself show what Commonwealth pressure can bring about in advancing democratic provisions?"

Tony Blair: "My honourable friend is absolutely right. Indeed, Nigeria represents a model example of a country returning to democracy, and Commonwealth pressure assisted in that, which is why the Commonwealth continuing to suspend Zimbabwe will, of course, have its own impact.