Black GOPers on the rise?

Does the media pursuit of new Congressman J.C. Watts (R-Okla.) presage a rise in black Republicanism? Maybe not. But it is certainly predictable: If Watts were not black and Republican, journalists wouldn't hang on to his every word. But when his skin color and GOP affiliation are contrasted with the overwhelmingly Democratic bent of other House blacks--with the exception of Gary Franks (R-Conn.)--the media is intrigued.

This is hardly surprising since to most Americans the term "black Republican" is an oxymoron. But not for long, says Willie A. Richardson, the Houston-based publisher of National Minority Politics, a new monthly, conservative political magazine. Richardson is thrilled by the GOP victory and predicts it will eventually help transform the Congressional Black Caucus from an ultra-liberal Democratic majority group to a more conservative bipartisan organization.

Is he dreaming? Maybe. According to National Minority Politics, 23 black Republicans--not counting Rep. Franks--ran for Congress in 1994. As the only winner, Watts was elected by a mostly white, suburban district. Franks was reelected by a white, middle-class district. But no black Republican beat a CBC member.

They were more successful on the state level, however. Two prominent examples are Vickki Buckley and Kenneth Blackwell. Buckley was elected Colorado's secretary of state and Blackwell won the post of state treasurer in Ohio.

These elections made two points: Whites vote for blacks who reflect their interests; and, if most CBC districts--which are generally poor, minority- and union-oriented--desire change, they still haven't seen GOP candidates they trust --yet.

Ironically, blacks also helped elect white GOP candidates. Last November, six GOP gubernatorial and eight Senate candidates received substantial black support. For example, Gov. George Voinovich received 40% of the black vote in the Ohio gubernatorial race, while Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson received 22% of the black votes cast in her race.

NMP's Richardson says these votes show a "tendency" among blacks to vote GOP if they're actively courted. Candidates are also capable of being persuaded to switch allegiances. For instance, black North Carolina state representative Frances M. Cummings recently quit the Democrats to join the GOP, explaining that her district will benefit from the Republicans' emphasis on programs that tackle job, crime and education issues. So far, the growing number of blacks endorsing the GOP platform has not translated into more power for blacks in the Republican Party. According to the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies in Washington, D.C., the Republican National Committee has only four blacks among its 165 voting members--one from D.C. and three from the Virgin Islands. The Democratic National Committee is 20% black, according to the Joint Center. That may change, of course.

One thing is probable, however: If the GOP's "Contract With America" does well in 1995, CBC members will face many more optimistic black Republican challengers in 1996.