Bird Flu Risks for Air Travelers.

Bird Flu Risks for Air Travelers

By Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation

Avian Influenza, commonly referred to as Bird Flu, is not a new disease. What is relatively new about it is that the spread of the virus, primarily from migrating birds, has increased risk of human exposure to the virus that causes the disease. While cases of transmission of the Bird Flu virus from birds to humans have occurred since 1997, there have so far been no reported cases of transmissions from human to human. For the world's air travelers, this means that the current risk of infection from being in an airplane is essentially zero. However, this present situation does not mean that there will be no danger in the future. As events in recent years have shown, it is possible for passengers to contract a fatal case of the flu after an in-flight exposure. A mutation that allows the Bird Flu virus to be easily transmitted from human to human would certainly put airline passengers at risk.

In December 2003, the New England Journal of Medicine published a study that concluded that in March of 2003, six passengers died from SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) after having been exposed to an infected passenger. The exposures occurred on two separate flights. Should the Bird Flu virus change to the point that human to human transmission is possible, then any passenger flying on any aircraft may be at risk. Unlike viruses such as HIV that require direct contact with the body fluids of an infected person in order to pass on the virus, flu viruses like Bird Flu can often be transmitted through less intimate contact such as being in close proximity to an infected person in an airliner.

Even if Bird Flu were to evolve into a virus that can be transmitted from human to human, the risks that airline passengers would fact would depend on several factors such as how easily the virus can be transmitted, the amount of time between exposure and the onset of symptoms, and the likelihood that a person infected with this virus would eventually die from the effects of the disease. In a worst case scenario, the Bird Flu virus would mutate into a form that allows human to human transmission, a significant percentage of those who are exposed become ill, and the number of exposures reaches epidemic proportions before public health authorities are unable to identify the seriousness of the threat. So far, there is no evidence that such an outbreak is either occurring or about to occur.

The experience with SARS provides perhaps the closest comparison to the situation with Bird Flu. Then, as now, public health authorities were concerned that SARS could spread easily and cause a widespread outbreak. Then, as now, the major media organizations were very keen on reporting outbreaks and providing information on the potential threat. The key difference with the current situation with Bird Flu is that it is unclear whether the virus will remain a potential major threat or an actual major threat. At present, there are no reported cases of human to human transmission and no large outbreaks of the disease among humans.

In the case of SARS, the disease was certainly fatal to some who exposed to the virus, but the existence of these SARS outbreaks did not lead to any unusual disruption in normal activities such as air travel. If the present situation with Bird Flu does not change in any significant way, there would very likely be little or no impact on the air transportation system. Should the worse case scenario become a reality and if Bird Flu were to become a worldwide epidemic, it is quite unclear how air transportation may be affected. The best advice that AirSafe.com could give to the average air traveler would be to monitor the media reports about Bird Flu and to be on the lookout for any reports of human to human transmission. If that happens, and if it looks like the disease is become widespread, then travel in any mode of transportation open to the public, including airline travel, would increase your risk of getting infected.

Fortunately for the traveling public, there is substantial information about Bird Flu that can be easily accessed. AirSafe.com has created a page at http://www.airsafe.com/issues/medical/birdflu.htm that has several convenient links to some of this information. If you visit the AirSafe.com web site, you should be able to find a link to this information on the home page, or you can find it by using the AirSafe.com search engine.

For additional information please go to:

http://www.airsafe.com/issues/medical/birdflu.htm

There is also a podcast based on this article at http://www.airsafe.com/podcasts/show9.mp3

Dr. Todd Curtis is president of the AirSafe.com Foundation and creator of the web site AirSafe.com. Todd Curtis conducted research in several areas of aviation risk assessment and accident prevention. Author of the book Understanding Aviation Safety Data as well as a number of articles on Web site planning and airline safety. Licensed private pilot.