Biotechnology to change farm landscape.

Biotechnology to change farm landscape

Amidst a period of change and stress in U.S. agriculture, new forces--biotechnology and information technology--are entering the field. What effect will they have? A study by the congressional Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) predicts that in the next 14 years agricultural productivity will increase significantly, but the structure of agriculture will change dramatically. Approximately 1 million farms, most of small or moderate size, will disappear, OTA says. In the year 2000, only 50,000 large farms will be required for 75 percent of all U.S. agriculture. In contrast, today there are about 2.2 million farms, of which approximately 650,000 are responsible for 75 percent of agricultural production.

Of the emerging technologies, biotechnology is expected to have the largest impact. The greatest yield increase is expected for dairy production (SN: 4/5/86, p. 213), followed by wheat, soybeans, corn, rice and cotton. Biotechnology will enable agricultural production to become more centralized and more integrated with product processing, says the OTA. It also predicts increased product homogeneity.

The largest farms--those with annual gross sales of more than $250,000 -- are expected to adopt the most new technology and accrue the greatest economic advantages. Unless there are "substantial changes in the nature and objectives of farm policy," the report says, the traditional moderate-size farm with sales of $100,000 to $250,000 "will largely be eliminated as a viable force in American agriculture." To preserve such farms and the rural lifestyle dependent on them, OTA proposes hastening the introduction of new technology on these farms and increasing their access to new markets. Small "subsistence" farms are expected to persist, but, the report says, "they will continue to fester as an unaddressed social concern."