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(1) Marginal farmers are defined as those who own less than 1 acre of land.
(2) These concerns have been echoed in the Planning Commission's working documents for the Eleventh Five Year Plan.
(3) The study builds upon and takes forward many of the recommendations of an earlier World Bank assessment of the impacts of droughts in the state of Andhra Pradesh (World Bank 2006f).
(4) The first (termed A2) depicts a gloomy and pessimistic world where high greenhouse gas emissions result in severe climate change. The other (termed B2) emphasizes sustainability, global cooperation, and lower greenhouse gas emissions.
(5) Damages due to changes in climate would call for different remedies from impacts due to variations in economic conditions. Hence the study presents results for key climate change scenarios, holding economic and technical factors constant. It then tests the limits and sensitivity of the projections by allowing for wide changes in economic and technical variables. The report focuses on results that appear robust to substantial variations in parameters.
(6) Variants of both approaches are suggested in World Bank 2006f.
(7) The National Development Council Resolution of May 2007 under the chairmanship of the Prime Minister of India The Prime Minister of India is, in practice, the most powerful person in the Government of India. The Prime Minister is technically outranked by the head of state, the President of India. gives high priority to incentivising states to develop comprehensive district agricultural plans that will include livestock, fishing, minor irrigation, rural development works and other schemes for water harvesting and conservation.
(8) As an example the Hirakud Dam, which is the main control structure on the Mahanadi, was originally designed for a flood of 42,500 cumecs, whereas more recent calculations indicate that the maximum probable flood is 69,500 cumecs. Floods need to be partially regulated by advance reservoir depletion, which may have impacts on water availability for irrigation, and this in turn calls for a basinwide flood forecasting and management system.
(9) These include a World Bank report on the Northeast (World Bank 2007a) and numerous government documents including: Planning Commission 2002; Planning Commission 2001; and Shukla 1997.
(10) A number of recent projects supported by the World Bank have incorporated some elements of these recommendations in operations. Examples include: the Hydrology hydrology, study of water and its properties, including its distribution and movement in and through the land areas of the earth. The hydrologic cycle consists of the passage of water from the oceans into the atmosphere by evaporation and transpiration (or I (1995-2003), which focused on nine states including Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Orissa), Hydrology I1 (2004-2010), which currently covers five new states. These include enhanced information systems as project components. The National Agriculture Innovation Project (2006-2012) and the National Agriculture Competitiveness Project (under preparation at the time of writing) recognize and build in elements of climate risk.
(11) GoI's National Development Council Resolution of May 2007 gives high priority to building comprehensive district agricultural plans.
(12) See Diamond 2005.
(13) This is the Second National Communication on Climate Change to the UNFCC.
(14) EM-DAT: The International Disaster Data Base, http://www.em-dat.net/.
(15) The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established by the World Meteorological Organization World Meteorological Organization (WMO), specialized agency of the United Nations; established in 1951 with headquarters at Geneva. It replaced the International Meteorological Organization, which was established in 1878. and the United Nations Environment Programme in 1988 to assess scientific, technical, and socioeconomic information relevant for the understanding of climate change, its potential impacts, and options for adaptation and mitigation. It comprises three Working Groups and a Task Force, which meet regularly to review the globally published scientific/technical literature on climate change and to issue official assessments on the situation.
(16) The climate projections are summarized in India's official Initial National Communication on Climate Change to the UNFCCC UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change .
(17) EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, http://www.em-dat.net. see also Winrock 2005.
(18) Note that the dates do not correspond to particular calendar years, but represent probable climate events that are predicted to emerge within that period.
(19) The study design has intended to take into account two contrasting districts per state and selected villages accordingly from these districts.
(20) Being the first of its kind study for India for which a methodology had to be developed, it was decided to focus on the two future scenarios prescribed by IPCC.
(21) The crop growth model uses radiation-use efficiency in calculating photosynthetic production of biomass. The potential is adjusted daily for stress from water, temperature, nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorous phos·pho·rous
Of, relating to, or containing phosphorus, especially with a valence of 3 or a valence lower than that of a comparable phosphoric compound. ), aeration aeration /aer·a·tion/ (ar-a´shun)
1. the exchange of carbon dioxide for oxygen by the blood in the lungs.
2. the charging of a liquid with air or gas.
n. , and radiation. Crop yields are estimated using the harvest index concept. Harvest index increases as a nonlinear function of heat units from zero at the planting stage to the maximum value at maturity. The harvest index may be reduced by high temperature, low solar radiation, or water stress during critical crop stages.
(22) At a global and national scale climate change will affect production levels and prices. Determining these impacts is beyond the scope of this report and this is left to future work.
(23) An overview of programs is presented later in this chapter.
(24) The difference is statistically significant using the Welch t-statistic at the 99% level of confidence.
(25) World Bank 2006f reports a similar finding.
(26) The poverty line in rural Andhra Pradesh is Rs. 263 (Government of India 2001). Source: World Bank calculations on the TERI survey data, drought year (2002-03) and normal year (2003-04)
(27) The survey was for the recent drought year in 2002.
(28) Appendix A presents a summary of the numerous definitions and approaches that have been used to assess vulnerability.
(29) In a normal year (controlling for other factors), households with access to groundwater earn nearly 50% more than those without any irrigation access and those with access to canal irrigation earn 15% more than those without any irrigation.
(30) Other controls include landholding land·hold·er
One that owns land.
landholding n. size, village variables, etc. as detailed in the tables in Appendix G.
(31) A2 and B2 are the IPCC scenarios. Projections are from 2071 to 2100. A2 defines a world of high and rising greenhouse gas levels with correspondingly more severe climate change. The B2 world is one with a greater emphasis on sustainability and involves lower emissions (see box 2.2, chapter 2).
(32) In A2, some parts of the basin towards the northwest and the southeastern boundary, as well as some segments in the central part and the western outer boundary, will see an increase in rainfall. Only one small segment in the north will experience a decline.
(33) This is imposed as a constraint in the model, details are in Appendix G.
(34) Average yields mask changes in the distribution of crop responses. These are reported in appendix G. Specifically, under climate change the peaks of the distributions are lower, while the tails are thicker. This implies that adverse climate events that (a) generate low yields (bad outcome) become more frequent; (b) the intermediate outcomes are less common; and (c) there is a small increase in the frequency of beneficial outcomes.
(35) Profits from each crop reflect: (a) the yield, (b) the price of the crop and (c) the production costs. Consequently there is no simple one-to-one mapping between yields and per hectare profits. A crop with higher yields may be less profitable if it either sells for less, or costs more to produce.
(36) Variants of both approaches are suggested in World Bank 2006f.
(37) The figure is therefore illustrative. A more extensive statistical search failed to unravel significant and robust relationships between any of the climate parameters (including second and third moments of the distribution) and crop yields. Some of these results are reported in RMSI 2006b.
(38) These periods refer to the fiscal years 1970/1, 1971/2, 1972/3, and 1973/4, and 2000/1, 2001/2, 2002/3, and 2003/4, respectively.
(39) Income volatility is measured through the coefficient of variation Coefficient of Variation
A measure of investment risk that defines risk as the standard deviation per unit of expected return. . Regression analysis In statistics, a mathematical method of modeling the relationships among three or more variables. It is used to predict the value of one variable given the values of the others. For example, a model might estimate sales based on age and gender. is conducted using the ordinary least squares technique with standard errors corrected for heteroskedasticity. The regression includes 409 households and only statistically significant determinants are reported here. All factors reported are stable across specifications and are highly significant. Full technical details are relegated to appendix G. Here, a broad overview is presented that emphasizes the main policy implications.
(40) Projections are for a 30-year period from 2071 to 2100. As noted before, projections for earlier periods at the required level of spatial disaggregation dis·ag·gre·ga·tion
1. A breaking up into component parts.
2. An inability to coordinate various sensations and a failure to observe their mutual relations. are unavailable.
(41) The EPIC model predicts that bajra bajra
pennisetumglaucum. yield in these regions increases with both temperature and rainfall. In B2 there is an almost imperceptible change of about 1.% in average yields.
(42) For a summary of studies in other countries see IPCC 2001, Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, section 17.2.8, food security. Available online at http://grida.n0/climate/ipcc_tar//wg2/633.htm.
(43) The higher average profitability of bajra depends on there being sufficient water for survival irrigation in hot and dry spells to counter the impacts of heat stress. As the availability of water declines there is a steady shift towards jowar, which is found to be more resilient in the simulations.
(44) Note that the price of sugarcane, when the study was undertaken, was Rs 387 per tonne, while that of bajra was Rs 2,958 per tonne. Sugarcane's productivity was at 50 tonnes per hectare, while that of bajra was 0.8 tonnes per hectare.
(45) According to the National Flood Commission (Rashtriya Barh Ayog) this estimate reflects the maximum flood-affected area.
(46) The focus on floods and not on other natural disasters such as cyclonic storms, which are also frequent in this state, emanated from the consultative process, as noted in chapter 1. After all, cyclones tend to lead to flooding and are, therefore, regarded as being part of the flood dimension rather than separate from it.
(47) Data compiled from the International Disaster Database (http://www.em-dat.net/) and TERI 2006.
(48) Of these flood-prone areas, 75% spread across eight coastal districts; Cuttack, Kendrapara, Jagatsinghpur, Puri, Balasore, Bhadrak, Jeypore, and Ganjanx
(49) This is because it requires modeling hypothetical scenarios that would have eventuated in the absence of floods.
(50) The villages are Naugaon, Tarasahi, and Sunadiakandha in Jagatsinghpur; and Raibidhar, Gadasampat, and Deipur in Puri. In these villages surveys using stratified sampling were conducted to inventory the existing coping strategies and to assess adapting capacities and vulnerability of communities across villages and landholding categories.
(51) As an example the Hirakud Dam, which is the main control structure on the Mahanadi, was originally designed for a flood of 42,500 cumecs, whereas more recent calculations indicate that the maximum probable flood is 69,500 cumecs. Therefore, floods need to be partially regulated by advance reservoir depletion, which in turn calls for a basinwide flood forecasting system.
(52) Many of the arguments presented here echo and extend those in World Bank 2007a.
(53) The National Development Council Resolution of May 2007 under the chairmanship of the Prime Minister of India gives high priority to incentivizing states to develop comprehensive district agricultural plans that will include livestock, fishing, minor irrigation, rural development works and other schemes for water harvesting and conservation.
(54) A number of recent projects supported by the World Bank have incorporated some elements of these recommendations in operations. Examples include: the Hydrology I (1995-2003), which focused on nine states including Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Orissa), Hydrology II (2004-2010), which currently covers five new states. These include enhanced information systems as project components. The National Agriculture Innovation
Project (2006-2012) and the National Agriculture Competitiveness Project (under preparation at the time of writing) recognize and build in elements of climate risk.
(55) Gol's National Development Council Resolution of May 2007 gives high priority to building comprehensive district agricultural plans.
(56) Alwang, Jorgensen and Siegel. 2001. Vulnerability: A View from Different Disciplines. Washington, DC: World Bank.
(57) Variants of this approach are the "poverty dynamics" and the "asset-based" approaches to vulnerability (see source for details).
(58) Aandahl, Guro and Karen O'Brien, Vulnerability to Climate Change and Economic Changes in Indian Agriculture.
(59) The statistical basis provided by this methodology provides better results than the conventional practices that "create" weight on an ad hoc basis.
(60) The area of different vulnerable zones in the states selected for the study was estimated using the spatial analyst function of Arc GIS and drawn on GIS-produced maps.
(61) Person in charge of maintaining land records of villages in a panchayat Noun 1. panchayat - a village council in India or southern Pakistan
council - a body serving in an administrative capacity; "student council"
(62) 1 ha = 2.5 acres
(63) It is imperative to mention here that income is considered a proxy for well-being, but is not tantamount to well-being. The latter is a holistic concept, encompassing livelihood security, food security, ownership characteristics, and respect in society. Of these, the focus of this study is on livelihood and income security, and hence the nature of employment emerges as an indicator in the status of well-being.
(64) [mu] = (Normal income + Impact income)/2, and [[sigma].sup.2] =[(Normal income - Mean income)^2 + (Impact income - mean income)^2]/2.
(65) 2% of the farmers in the state have access to 70% of the irrigation; 80% of the state's rural population does not benefit from any irrigation schemes.
(66) There are significant variations in the state's hydrogeology hy·dro·ge·ol·o·gy
The branch of geology that deals with the occurrence, distribution, and effect of ground water.
hy that will have to be considered in order to determine the feasibility of, and potential for, groundwater recharge activities.
(67) See, e.g. FIPM FIPM Federazione Italiana Pentathlon Moderno (Italian: Italian Federation of Modern Pentathlon; Italy) 2005.
(68) Binswanger (1980) conducted an experimental study with 330 individuals from arid areas in Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra and found that more than 80% were "moderately" risk-averse. Only 2% of individuals were found to be "extremely" risk-averse.
(69) A substantial majority of individuals in these areas are moderately risk-averse, and this is recognized in the literature (e.g. Anderson and Dillon, 1992) as equivalent to the risk-aversion factor of 1. The exercise allows risk-aversion coefficient up to the factor of 2, the level beyond which is very unlikely to be found among households in these areas.
(70) Block-level rainfall observations were available for kharif season only. Hence, no annual projections were possible.