Beyond the Fourth Wave.Fras of economic dominance redefine associations. GRAHAM T.T. MOLITOR History's unfolding landscape includes four successive waves of economic change (see sidebar, "The Nine Eras of Economic Sector Dominance") that have dominated advanced nations across past centuries: agriculture, industrial manufacturing, services, and the current knowledge-information-education era. During the coming millennium, advanced economies will experience at least another five waves of economic dominance, including leisure (which incorporates hospitality, recreation, and entertainment under its umbrella); life sciences; megamaterials; a new atomic age atomic age also Atomic Age n. The current era as characterized by the discovery, technological applications, and sociopolitical consequences of nuclear energy. ; and a new space age. Looming changes brought about by the centrality of these new enterprises will promote as well as destroy jobs and earnings, reshape individual economies, and affect the larger world economy. Declining sectors displaced by newer ascending technologies will be hardest hit. Effective planning is essential to help minimize dislocations and must focus on where things are headed and assess how to deal with the massive change that accompanies such transitions. Survival of entire industries--and future economic growth overall--depends on staying at the forefront of emerging technologies. Fortunately, major economic epochs do not emerge suddenly as a bolt out Verb 1. bolt out - leave suddenly and as if in a hurry; "The listeners bolted when he discussed his strange ideas"; "When she started to tell silly stories, I ran out" beetle off, run off, run out, bolt of the blue. Because there are no real discontinuities in long-term perspectives, these impending im·pend intr.v. im·pend·ed, im·pend·ing, im·pends 1. To be about to occur: Her retirement is impending. 2. economic centers of gravity center of gravity n. pl. centers of gravity 1. Abbr. CG The point in or near a body at which the gravitational potential energy of the body is equal to that of a single particle of the same mass located at that point should not catch informed people unaware. Rather, each of the impending five entrepreneurial sectors have been building momentum for a century or more. Important milestones in the slow but steady ascendance as·cen·dance also as·cen·dence n. Ascendancy. Noun 1. ascendance - the state that exists when one person or group has power over another; "her apparent dominance of her husband was really her attempt to make him pay already have been reached. The trend, direction, and speed of these shifts do vary, however, as will the implications posed for association management. Hence the importance of studying them in detail both from history's vantage point and future's perspective. Another characteristic of epochs that drive major economic change is that they not only take a long time to build, but even longer periods of time for accommodation. More than 100 years were required to develop and optimize technologies associated with taking the industrial revolution to its high point. Working out the social and political impacts of the industrial revolution has taken much longer, and is in fact still taking place. At least 250 years have been needed to discern these secondary effects, realize their significance, and take steps to contain or minimize adverse impacts. Anticipating wrenching change--whether fast or slow--is the purpose of this series of articles and enables informed decision makers to optimize the positive developments and minimize negative impact. Dominance defined Economic dominance is marked by the time at which the particular economic undertaking becomes the nation's largest provider of employment. Soon thereafter, that sector begins to account for the biggest share of gross domestic product. This change in sector dominance does not mean that previous economic activities in other sectors will disappear. Rather, it is the relative importance and the ebbs and flows between economic undertakings that shift. Each of the coming five economic eras will enjoy a period of predominance during which its importance to the economy ranks it first and foremost. Association executives, then, must be keenly aware that as economic dominance shifts from one sector to another, so does the relative importance of association representation for the ascending and declining sectors that mirror the changes in that dominance. Associations representing eclipsed sectors simply may become less important as leadership passes to those who step in to pick up where others falter or fail. On the other hand, existing associations, responding to shifts, may simply take on new representation responsibilities for ascending economic activities. The association activity of the last century demonstrates the power and relative role imposed by shifts to new economic eras. At the end of the 19th century, for example, a mere handful of national associations represented key economic interests. Business organizations, such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is the world's largest not-for-profit federation of businesses, representing more than 3 million businesses and organizations in the United States. As of 2003, the chamber was comprised of 3000 state and local chambers and 830 business associations. , Washington, D.C.; the National Association of Manufacturers, Washington, D.C.; a host of large associations representing other pivotal economic activities (automobiles, petroleum, chemicals, steel, and so on); and organized labor Organized Labor An association of workers united as a single, representative entity for the purpose of improving the workers' economic status and working conditions through collective bargaining with employers. Also known as "unions". counterparts were prominent among those who exerted strong influence and dominated lobbying. Today, reflecting the explosion of business enterprises resulting from the combined economic eras of agriculture, industry, services, and information, nearly 23,000 national and international associations representing every imaginable facet of private and public undertakings have been established to deal with unique specialized interests that require expertise. Many goods and services In economics, economic output is divided into physical goods and intangible services. Consumption of goods and services is assumed to produce utility (unless the "good" is a "bad"). It is often used when referring to a Goods and Services Tax. represented by business and trade associations did not even exist several decades ago. The pace of change has accelerated to the point that forecasting change is becoming more than a nice-to-have function in association management. Rather, in many cases, such prediction is imperative to survival and suggests the importance of rapid response. Shifts spur transformation Agribusiness agribusiness Agriculture operated by business; specifically, that part of a modern national economy devoted to the production, processing, and distribution of food and fibre products and byproducts. shifts, responding to successive waves of economic change, demonstrate the types of changes that dramatically alter association representation. An in-depth review of these activities is useful in looking at ways associations can respond to--and anticipate--subsequent shifts. Three major farm organizations once dominated the agribusiness sector--The American Farm Bureau Federation The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) is a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization dedicated to promoting, protecting, and representing the interests of U.S. farmers. More than five million members in 50 states and Puerto Rico belong to the AFBF, making it the largest U.S. , Washington, D.C.; National Grange, Washington, D.C.; and National Farmers Union, Aurora, Colorado The City of Aurora is the third most populous city in the State of Colorado and the 59th most populous city in the United States.[5] The municipality is split between Arapahoe County and Adams County, with a small portion lying in Douglas County. . The sharp decline in prominence of farm operations is vividly revealed by employment trends. During the 1700s, food, fishing, fiber, and forestry accounted for more than 90 percent of all U.S. jobs. By 1880, the proportion fell to less than 49 percent, plummeted to 27 percent by 1920, to 6 percent by 1960, and to a mere 2.5 percent by 1994. By 2010, a minuscule minuscule Lowercase letters in calligraphy, in contrast to majuscule, or uppercase letters. Unlike majuscules, minuscules are not fully contained between two real or hypothetical lines; their stems can go above or below the line. 1-2 percent will be directly engaged in agricultural operations--and productivity will be so prodigious that as much as 60-80 percent of some key crops will contin ue to be exported. Dominance of the three giant farm organizations, then, waned as goods and services beyond the farmgate reflected the shift to a different era of dominance. During the industrial era, grocery manufacturers dominated the post-farmgate sector. Shortly thereafter, service providers (retailers and wholesalers) headed the list measured by downstream employment (related work beyond the farmgate). Along the way, food services food services Hospital services A 24/7 department in a hospital that provides for the nutritional needs of inpatients–eg, those needing special diets, preparing meals and transporting them to the floor and, through the cafeteria, the hospital staff and , providing food away from home, accounted for most jobs. By 1998 more than 50 cents of every food dollar went for food consumed outside the home. Food services will continue to grow in importance during the 21st century under the influence of the upcoming economic eras. As leisure time activities begin to occupy more than 50 percent of an average American's lifetime, for example, dual-income, fast-track householders will take less time to prepare meals for themselves. Further into the millennium, the emerging wave of life sciences will dominate the agribusiness sector, bringing with it bioengineered food production, including enhanced nutrient composition of crops and bioremediation bi·o·re·me·di·a·tion n. The use of biological agents, such as bacteria or plants, to remove or neutralize contaminants, as in polluted soil or water. to solve pollution problems. More speculative is the likelihood of sector dominance based on megamaterials capabilities, including synthesized foods--customized to meet specific food and fiber needs of individuals--and food replication using robotic nanotechnologies capable of manipulating matter at the atomic and molecular levels. Eking eke 1 tr.v. eked, ek·ing, ekes 1. To supplement with great effort. Used with out: eked out an income by working two jobs. 2. foodstuffs foodstuffs npl → comestibles mpl foodstuffs npl → denrées fpl alimentaires foodstuffs food npl → from the soil is likely to become simply another food production niche, or perhaps even a mere curiosity. The final phase in the projected five-tiered shift, the new space age, entails satisfying agribusiness needs from extraterrestrial sources produced on orbiting space stations or other planets. Around-the-clock solar radiation solar radiation, n the emission and diffusion of actinic rays from the sun. Overexposure may result in sunburn, keratosis, skin cancer, or lesions associated with photosensitivity. , shorter crop maturation cycles, and multiple cropping on a year-in and year-out basis will greatly increase yields. Bioreactors and hydroponics hydroponics, growing of plants without soil in water to which nutrients have been added. Hydroponics has been used for over a century as a research technique, but not until 1929 were experiments conducted solely to determine its feasibility for growing commercial for growing key crop components or nutrients also will figure prominently in this transformation. Statistics underscore significance for associations Technologically driven shifts in jobs and revenues that alter the relative importance of activities within the agribusiness sector have dramatically transformed association activities since 1960. In the following decades, economic dominance beyond the farmgate (measured by jobs and revenues) jumped from one sector to another. Commodity processing--grain milling, for instance--topped all other manufacturing in the U.S. during colonial times. Sometime later grocery manufacturing moved to the forefront. With the rise of the service era, food wholesale distribution and retailing increased, eventually giving way to the domineering dom·i·neer·ing adj. Tending to domineer; overbearing. dom  i·neer importance of full-fledged food services.
Agribusiness statistics reflecting employment distribution across the industrial, service, and information eras demonstrate the power of the economic waves of dominance that have swept across the sector. * Farm employment, accounting for 6.3 million jobs, continued to dwarf combined downstream economic activities of agribusiness as of 1960. Taken together, all other post-farmgate or downstream components provided fewer jobs than were found on farms. Among downstream activities, food manufacturers dominated, employing 1.8 million, compared to 1.7 million for food services, 1.4 million for retailers, and 0.8 million for wholesalers. * By 1980, grocery retail jobs surpassed those for manufacturers. Grocery retailers employed 2.3 million workers; food manufacturers employed only 1.5 million. However, all downstream components still accounted for nearly the same number of jobs on farms, which stood at 3.7 million down from 6.3 million in 1960. At that time, food service providers (a leisure/hospitality/recreation/entertainment undertaking), employed far more workers than food manufacturers and grocery retailers combined: 4.5 million for food services, compared to 3.8 million for food manufacturers and grocery retailers. * By 1991, the relative dominance of job distribution in food services became even more pronounced, reinforced by the increase in leisure-time activities (already heralding the next economic wave). The hospitality sector (eating and drinking establishments) with 5.4 million workers, very nearly accounted for more jobs than combined employment on farms (1.8 million, food products only), in food manufacturing (1.5 million workers), and in grocery retailing and wholesaling (3.4 million workers). Transformation of association representation Association leaders may wish to take a page from their association member companies' planning books when it comes to focusing on developments that call for changing the composition of the membership and responding in a timely fashion to membership needs. * DuPont, Wilmington, Delaware Wilmington is the largest city in the state of Delaware and is located at the confluence of the Christina River and Brandywine Creek, near where the Christina flows into the Delaware River. , shifted from its role as an explosives manufacturer to that of a chemical/petroleum business, and is further transitioning itself into a chemical/biology company. Chastened chas·ten tr.v. chas·tened, chas·ten·ing, chas·tens 1. To correct by punishment or reproof; take to task. 2. To restrain; subdue: chasten a proud spirit. 3. to ensure crucial petroleum feedstocks, DuPont acquired Conoco, Houston, (the ninth largest oil producer) in 1981, during the OPEC OPEC: see Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. OPEC in full Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Multinational organization established in 1960 to coordinate the petroleum production and export policies of its (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), multinational organization (est. 1960, formally constituted 1961) that coordinates petroleum policies and economic aid among oil-producing nations. ) energy crisis. Responding, in part, to impending exhaustion of petroleum resources, the company's new emphasis on phyto-chemicals and life-science technologies seeks to ensure renewable and sustainable feed-stocks that also are environmentally friendly Environmentally friendly, also referred to as nature friendly, is a term used to refer to goods and services considered to inflict minimal harm on the environment.[1] . DuPont's goals include increasing profits based on life sciences from 15 to 20 percent in 1997 to 30 percent by 2002. In like manner Eastman Chemical, Kingsport, Tennessee Kingsport is a city located primarily in Sullivan County, and also partially in Hawkins County, Tennessee, United States. Kingsport was originally King's Port but eventually it became a one word name for the city. The population was 44,905 at the 2000 census. , to ensure feedstocks for selective chemical outputs, is shifting away from petroleum (almost certainly to be depleted de·plete tr.v. de·plet·ed, de·plet·ing, de·pletes To decrease the fullness of; use up or empty out. [Latin d in 63-100 years), to coal, which isn't projected to run out for 230-500 years. These shifts will dictate changing needs among associations that best represent ascending business activities. * Petroleum companies facing impending resource depletion Resource depletion is an economic term referring to the exhaustion of raw materials within a region. Resources are commonly divided between renewable resources and non-renewable resources. , huge economic size of competitors, globalization globalization Process by which the experience of everyday life, marked by the diffusion of commodities and ideas, is becoming standardized around the world. Factors that have contributed to globalization include increasingly sophisticated communications and transportation of world markets, and permissive antitrust regulation have entered into a period of megamergers that radically alter the industry. The new "big five" sisters are Exxon-Mobil, BP-Amoco/Atlantic Richfield, Royal Dutch Shell Royal Dutch Shell plc is a multinational oil company of British and Dutch origins. It is one of the largest private sector energy corporations in the world, and one of the six "supermajors" (vertically integrated private sector oil exploration, natural gas, and petroleum product , Chevron, and Texaco (with possible further consolidations involving the latter two companies). All these companies have been busily developing alternative energy sources, and an array of specialized associations have been established to effectively represent their various emerging interests. Downstream petrochemical manufacturing activities, like polymer and plastic production, have been experiencing far-reaching fallout in the aftermath of these wrenching changes, sometimes to the point of internecine in·ter·nec·ine adj. 1. Of or relating to struggle within a nation, organization, or group. 2. Mutually destructive; ruinous or fatal to both sides. 3. Characterized by bloodshed or carnage. fights among association representation. * Monsanto Company, St. Louis, long ago moved away from polymers and plastics, diving headlong into efforts to become a leading life sciences company. Both DuPont and Monsanto recently acquired or affiliated themselves with firms focused on the entry point for agribusiness production--seeds. The overall intent is to develop seed, plants, and animals into efficient biofactories of the future. In related developments, natural fertilizers have given way to agri-chemicals, which now are being replaced by life-science-based inputs. Cell biology Cell biology The study of the activities, functions, properties, and structures of cells. Cells were discovered in the middle of the seventeenth century after the microscope was invented. , DNA DNA: see nucleic acid. DNA or deoxyribonucleic acid One of two types of nucleic acid (the other is RNA); a complex organic compound found in all living cells and many viruses. It is the chemical substance of genes. (deoxyribonucleic acid) manipulation, and biological alteration of foodstuffs already provide inbred in·bred adj. 1. Produced by inbreeding. 2. Fixed in the character or disposition as if inherited; deep-seated. inbred said of offspring produced by inbreeding. resistance to disease, harmful insects, and other biohazards. Genetic enhancement of crop yields and nutrient profiles increasingly find their way into everyday foodstuffs and animal feedstuffs. Biotechnologies will dramatically transform not only agribusinesses, but mining, waste treatment, and chemical manufacturing processes among others. Each of these changes imposes obvious impact on associations championing the new interests. Patterns of change in other business sectors involve similar shifts and successions. Business activities and their representative institutions do not remain static. They must either respond to changing business environments or be left behind. Changes in the number, size, and economic undertakings of companies require appropriate responses from associations representing and championing sector interests. Changes of an increasingly scientific and high-technology bent require new kinds of skills within associations. They call for more science-oriented expertise to understand and respond to the emerging needs of member companies. Attention currently is riveted on knowledge and education undertakings made possible by advances in communication and computer technologies. Still reaching toward its peak dominance, this current technological wave may wane in as few as 15 years, when successive waves of economic activities begin to bypass it. Fewer than two decades is a short enough span of time to start seriously thinking about what stands in the offing coming; arriving in the foreseeable future. visible but not nearby. See also: Offing Offing , where new investment opportunities, jobs, and livelihoods will be concentrated-and how associations should position themselves. Perspectives on change Associations, to remain viable, must both anticipate and take the steps necessary to accommodate coming change. Awareness of such radical changes, especially in these fast-paced times, is imperative. Staying abreast of this change requires a keen sense of where economic undertakings are headed. Successive articles will focus on impending developments, providing the sense of timing and level of importance required for associations to respond appropriately and successfully. What economic wave comes next? The next article in this series will focus on the leisure time era, which encompasses diverse economic undertakings in entertainment, hospitality, and recreation. By 2015, Americans will be spending more than 50 percent of a lifetime pursuing these interests. The article will describe why and how this sector will become the economic linchpin linch·pin or lynch·pin n. 1. A locking pin inserted in the end of a shaft, as in an axle, to prevent a wheel from slipping off. 2. of society and suggest association management responses. Graham T T. Molitor is vice president and legal counsel, World Future Society, Bethesda, Maryland Bethesda is an urbanized, but unincorporated, area in southern Montgomery County, Maryland, just Northwest of Washington, D.C. It takes its name from a church located there, the Bethesda Presbyterian Church, built in 1820 and rebuilt in 1850, which in turn took its name from , and president, Public Policy Forecasting, Potomac, Mary/and. Editor's note Editor's Note (foaled in 1993 in Kentucky) is an American thoroughbred Stallion racehorse. He was sired by 1992 U.S. Champion 2 YO Colt Forty Niner, who in turn was a son of Champion sire Mr. Prospector and out of the mare, Beware Of The Cat. Trained by D. : While we focus on New Year's Eve 1999 and the precise moment when we'll finally discover the accuracy of Y2K See Y2K problem and Y2K compliant. Y2K - Year 2000 predictions, Graham T.T. Molitor, vice president and legal counsel, World Future Society, Bethesda, Maryland, and president, Public Policy Forecasting, Potomac, Maryland Potomac is a census-designated place and an unincorporated area in Montgomery County, Maryland, United States. It includes the ZIP Code 20854 for properties and 20859 for US Post Office Boxes. , considers the entire expanse of the third millennium. This article is the first in a series of six. The remaining five will appear in subsequent issues of ASSOCIATION MANAGEMENT, in which Molitor will describe the coming waves of economic activity he forecasts will dominate the U.S. economy between now and Y3K Y3K Year Three Thousand . Successive economic shifts will profoundly alter the need for new or expanded association roles and suggest waning roles for others. Understanding the way these economic waves ebb and flow the alternate ebb and flood of the tide; often used figuratively. See also: Ebb allows association leaders to take an active role in responding to the coming realities Molitor describes. Molitor's new books, The Next 1,000 Years and a multiple-volume Chronology of Civilization, comprehensively describing p atterns of change, are scheduled for release in 2002.
THE NINE ERAS OF ECONOMIC SECTOR DOMINANCE
NEW SPACE AGE
SPACECRAFT, EXPLORATION, TRAVEL,
RESOURCE GATHERING, ASTRO-PHYSICS Dominant before 3000
NEW ATOMIC AGE
FUSION, LASERS, HYDROGEN AND HELIUM
ISOTOPES Dominant by 2250-2500
MEGAMATERIALS
QUANTUM PHYSICS, NANO-TECHNOLOGY,
HIGH-PRESSURE PHYSICS Dominant by 2100-2300
LIFE SCIENCES
BIO-TECH, GENETICS, CLONING Dominant by 2100
LEISURE
HOSPITALITY, RECREATION, ENTERTAINMENT Dominant commencing 2015
INFORMATION
KNOWLEDGE, INFORMATION, EDUCATION-COMPUTERS,
COMMUNICATIONS, SILICON Dominant since 1976 [1]
SERVICES
RETAIL, PROFESSIONAL, SPECIALTIES, MENIAL Declining since 1956
INDUSTRIAL
TEXTILES, STEEL, MACHINERY, RAIL, MOTTOR
CARS, CHEMICALS Declining since late 1920s
AGRICULTURE
CROP PRODUCTION, ANIMAL HUSBANDRY Declining since 1880s [1]
(1.)Percent employment and/or GDP dominance/decline in comparison with all
other economic sectors. (C) Graham T. T. Molitor - 1999 - Potomac,
Maryland.
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