Better luck next year? Blackenterprise.com readers see economic recovery after fourth quarter 2002. (Facts & Figures).It's no secret that the United States is in a recession--a period marked by a decline in business activity, generally identified as two or three consecutive quarters of falling gross domestic product or GDP GDP (guanosine diphosphate): see guanine. . In other words Adv. 1. in other words - otherwise stated; "in other words, we are broke" put differently , goods and services In economics, economic output is divided into physical goods and intangible services. Consumption of goods and services is assumed to produce utility (unless the "good" is a "bad"). It is often used when referring to a Goods and Services Tax. provided within the United States are selling at lower than normal levels. Blackenterprise.com (www.blackenterprise.com) conducted an online survey. Readers were asked to give their opinion on when they think the economy will pick up. Some 33% felt the upswing will happen in 2003. Those predicting second- and third-quarter recoveries were neck and neck with 26% and 28% of the votes, respectively. Very few (8% and 5%) expected a first- or fourth-quarter comeback. Historically, recessions average just under a year--roughly 11 months, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is a "private, nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization" dedicated to studying the science and empirics of economics, especially the American economy. (NBEA). As the current downturn began at the end of the first quarter of 2001 (March), it could be inferred that things will begin to pick up in the first or second quarter of 2002. The X factor, of course, is any aftereffects aftereffects after npl → Nachwirkungen pl of the War on Terrorism Terrorist acts and the threat of Terrorism have occupied the various law enforcement agencies in the U.S. government for many years. The Anti-Terrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996, as amended by the usa patriot act or fiscal aid from Washington, D.C. According to the NBEA, consumer psychology is key to the timing of the recovery. If consumers increase in spending, the current recession may follow the recent average pattern and become history before the end of spring. 1ST QUARTER 2002 8% 2ND QUARTER 2002 26% 3RD QUARTER 2002 28% 4TH QUARTER 2002 5% AFTER 2002 33% SOURCE: B.E. RESEARCH |
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