Best and worst of times.

Byline: The Register-Guard

The past year has combined the best of times and the worst of times for American troops and Iraqi civilians caught by choice or chance in the grip of the five-year-old war.

Even though 2007 was the deadliest year of the war for U.S. forces, with 899 troops killed, violence tapered off in the second half of the year. During December, 21 U.S. troops died in Iraq. As recently as last May, a total of 126 were killed.

With U.S. military deaths since the 2003 invasion within easy reach of 4,000 - they stood at 3,902 on Monday - the year-end respite is a priceless gift to anxious families and a real reason to hope the new year might hold news of a solid plan to bring the soldiers home.

The best-worst theme also held true for Iraqis, though everyone acknowledges that their losses have been so staggering they are difficult to accurately quantify. Iraqi civilian deaths also peaked in May with 2,155 killed. That fell to 718 in November and 710 in December. For the year, 18,610 Iraqis were killed, according to figures compiled by The Associated Press. In 2006, the only other full year an AP count has been tallied, 13,813 civilians were killed.

The Iraq Body Count project estimates that Iraqi civilian casualties since the 2003 invasion range from 80,272 to 87,683. The count encompasses noncombatants killed by military or paramilitary action and the breakdown in civil security following the invasion. Other estimates from reputable sources place the total civilian losses at upward of half a million men, women and children. Clearly, Iraqis have the most to gain from anything that stems the relentless carnage unleashed by the Bush administration's incompetent management of the post-invasion occupation.

Unfortunately, a reduction in violence achieved through a temporary U.S. troop surge that is already winding down will be meaningless unless it's accompanied by political action to reconcile a shattered nation. So far, the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is missing in action.

Outside Baghdad, the central government barely functions. Millions of Iraqis are still without reliable electricity, clean water and other services. An Oxfam International report released in July says 70 percent of Iraqis lack access to safe drinking water, and 43 percent live on less than a dollar a day.

It's still far from clear what kind of nation will ultimately emerge from the chaos and sectarian bloodshed of the past four years.

"The principal problem is this is a country with no agreement on what the country is," said Mideast analyst Jon Alterman.

As U.S. Iraq commander Gen. David Petraeus regularly reminds the minority of Americans who believe U.S. troops must remain until they achieve "victory" (about 37 percent in a December poll), there will never be a military victory in Iraq.

The United States can't win in Iraq until it ends military involvement in favor of establishing the diplomatic, economic and political mechanisms necessary for Iraq to get back on its feet. That victory awaits the next president of the United States.