Bert Dohmen, #1 stock timer, still writes every word in his newsletters.

Most of these publisher profiles begin with mention of the publisher's original career goals and the trail leading up to the newsletter business.

Early in life Bert Dohmen had a defined goal: Get out of freezing Minnesota and live and work someplace warm. After graduate school, he relocated to Hawaii.

He'd had been an active investor since his undergraduate days. In Hawaii during the "winter" of '76-'77, he read an Institutional Investor study that showed of that of all the analysts they tracked, only 2.8 percent were currently bears, the lowest number ever.

"I was bearish at the time and I felt I had some things to say," Bert says. So in January 1977 he launched The Wellington Letter. (The name "Wellington" is personal to Bert and doesn't have any particular meaning. I had thought perhaps it was to honor the Iron Duke himself since his "In for a penny, in for a pound" seems like a good strategy for investment advice.)

Early boost from the WSJ 

"Then after my second or third issue, The Wall Street Journal gave it a nice play in its 'Heard on the Street' column, probably because there were so few bears around, and it really just took off," Bert says. "At the time I would go downstairs to the E.F. Hutton office in the building where I worked to check the Dow Jones newswire, and that day people were saying, 'Look, look, you're on it.'"

That incident is one to cherish, considering that most newsletter publishers report that mass media attention rarely translates into subscriptions.

The Wellington Letter launched at $89. Today it is $375 and the lowest priced of the six services the Dohmen Capital Research Institute currently offers:

* The Wellington Letter, 2-3x/month, $375: "Targeted toward the serious investor and business executives, it has provided readers with the most accurate analysis and forecasts of the global economies and investment markets found anywhere."

* Fearless Fund & Index Trader, $1,800: "Exciting service for short-term mutual funds and index traders who may not have the time to keep up with 10-15 individual stocks and options but who still want to get involved in trading."

* Smarte Trader, $3,500, cancelable at end of each 12-week cycle, 4-week trial subscription $399 (the reasoning behind the spelling of Smarte is, like Wellington, known only to Bert): "Designed for short-term investors who want to trade stocks, short-sales and options on a short-term basis for potentially very exciting profits."

* Private Portfolios, 3 levels: Achiever, $996; Executive, $1,700: Chairman, $5,500: "A service designed to let individual investors manage their own mutual fund portfolio.

Kudos

Bert Dohmen long ago became known as a Fed watcher and a contrarian. He has appeared on Louis Rukeyser's "Wall Street Week," CNN's "Moneyline," and CNBC Financial News Network. He is frequently quoted in The Wall Street Journal, BARRON'S, Business Week, and other leading publications.

He was ranked one of the "Top Ten Stock Market Timers" (including a #1 ranking). The Wellington Letter was rated #1 in the United States in a national survey by Futures magazine.

Online only

All of Bert's services are now delivered online only, after stops along the way with fax and e-mail delivery. He stopped printing in 2000. "It took a lot of education. A lot of my older readers didn't want computers, but over time they learned how much fun it is to e-mail the grandchildren."

The Wellington Letter has been the flagship title through all the years but, Bert says, "most of the revenue today comes from the other services. I trade every day," Bert explains, "and always have and the services are aimed at people like myself."

"But," he continues, "the climate may be changing. The market is led today by hedge fund managers who have a time horizon of about 5 days. Perhaps it's time to go the other way. I suppose I'm a classic contrarian."

Getting started

Going back to the start, he says, "I knew absolutely nothing about newsletter publishing or marketing. [It's surprising how often I hear this from successful publishers.] I had to learn from scratch and my best sources were the NEPA conferences and several financial publishers who weren't members. They were all so kind and sharing. They taught me what to do and, more importantly, what not to do, which can save you enormous amounts of money."

Staff

At the peak of his operations in Hawaii, Dohmen had a staff of about 22 people. "For 14 years we also ran a separate fund management operation and there was all the clerical work, accounting, and subscription fulfillment. Today with everything on the website all that is enormously simpler," Bert says.

Recently Dohmen made another move--to Los Angeles. "I have three kids of university age and they are all going to schools in California and we realized they wouldn't be coming back. There isn't much for a young person to do in Hawaii if you aren't in the hotel business."

None of the Hawaii staff came with him and he now operates with a complement of 4 and uses some part-timers and independent contractors.

Still writes all of his own copy

One thing that makes Bert unique is that he does now and always has done all the editorial work on all the services himself. No one else writes for Dohmen Capital Research.

"It's a great arrangement. I trade all day and then after the market closes [which was when we had several phone conversations], I write it down. Writing is a great discipline, I say that if The Wellington Letter had zero subscribers, I'd still write it because that forces you to focus your thinking."

Marketing

Asked about his marketing efforts, Bert says, "I do a great deal less than I used to. In 1999 and 2000 I probably dropped 2 million pieces of direct mail. When the market dropped, response died. I was fortunate enough to be able to say, 'Well, renewals are strong, we'll go with what we have.' The last year or two I probably dropped 200,000-300,000 pieces; we test 20,000-30,000 at a time.

"I also used to do a lot of speaking but I've pretty much given that up. You went to the big investment conferences and they might have had 100 speakers. It got to the point that no one remembered who said what. I met a guy in the restroom who asked me, 'Which one are you? Are you the guy who said gold would go to $3000 or down to $200?' It wasn't worth it."

Dohmen Capital Research Inc., P.O. Box 492433, Los Angeles, CA 90049, 310-476-6933, www.dohmencapital.com