Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc. Announces Investment Opinion on MGC Communications, Inc.NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--April 6, 1999-- Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc. MGC MGC Mammalian Gene Collection MGC Media Gateway Controller MGC Middle Georgia College MGC Museums and Galleries Commission (UK government) MGC Mississippi Gaming Commission MGC Manual Gain Control Communications, Inc.(a,b) (MGCX-$11 5/8-BUY) MGC Announces xDSL Initiatives, New Strategic Investor -- Providence Equity Partners Providence Equity Partners is a private equity firm headquartered in Providence, Rhode Island that focuses on investments in media and telecommunications. It is one of the largest private investment firms specializing in equity investments in media and communications companies. Will Take A 16.6% Stake In MGC For $37.5 Million. -- New Capital Will Be Used To Pursue Rollout Of Business-Centric xDSL Strategy. -- We Reiterate re·it·er·ate tr.v. re·it·er·at·ed, re·it·er·at·ing, re·it·er·ates To say or do again or repeatedly. See Synonyms at repeat. re·it Our BUY Rating With A Raised Year-End 1999 Target Price Of $35. -0-
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Enterprise Value Data Relative Value Data
Common Stock Price $11.625 1999E Revenue $45.7
Fully-Diluted Shares 25.1 2000E Revenue $129.3
Market Cap. $292.0 TEV/1999E Revenue 6.1x
Debt & Cap. Leases $157.3 TEV/2000E Revenue 2.1x
Cash & Equivalents $171.8 4Q98 Gross PP&E 122.9
Total Entpr. Value $277.5 TEV/Gross PP&E 2.3x
Source: Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc. Financial data is based on MGC's
4Q98 results and Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc. estimates and is pro forma
for the $47.5 million equity investment announced on April 5, 1999 by
Providence Equity Partners and two other entities. All financial data
is in millions except multiples and per share amounts.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
-0- INVESTMENT VIEWPOINT New Partners & A New xDSL Strategy. MGC Communications, Inc. announced on April 5, 1999 that Providence Equity Partners and two of its existing investors will make an equity investment of $47.5 million in the company. Concurrent with this positive news MGC announced that it would employ the proceeds of this investment in order to rollout a business-centric digital subscriber line See DSL. (communications, protocol) Digital Subscriber Line - (DSL, or Digital Subscriber Loop, xDSL - see below) A family of digital telecommunications protocols designed to allow high speed data communication over the existing copper telephone lines between end-users and (xDSL) offering in order to further leverage the substantial central office (CO) collocation collocation - co-location assets that it has deployed. Based on this very positive news and the upside Upside The potential dollar amount by which the market or a stock could rise. Notes: This is basically an educated guess on how high a stock could go in the near future. See also: Bull, Downside that it creates to MGC's business plan, we are reiterating our BUY rating on MGC and raising our year-end 1999 target price to $35 per share. The following paragraph outlines our thoughts on this news and the investment case for MGC Communications: Providence Providence, city (1990 pop. 160,728), state capital and seat of Providence co., NE R.I., a port at the head of Providence Bay; founded by Roger Williams 1636, inc. as a city 1832. Is A Strong & Seasoned Partner. We believe that Providence Equity Partners will play an instrumental role in driving the growth and development of MGC going forward. Providence is the leading private equity investor in the CLEC (Competitive Local Exchange Carrier) An organization offering local telephone service that is not one of the traditional telephone companies. The Telecommunications Act of 1996 allowed competition to the incumbent telcos (ILECs), enabling new companies (CLECs) and competitive telecom arena. The company is very much a "hands on" investor that has played an vital role in the funding, growth, strategic development, and M&A initiatives of success stories such as Brooks Fiber Properties, MetroNet Communications, and Verio. As such, we think that Providence can make a very positive impact on MGC by providing strategic guidance, recruitment of key senior executives, and establishing commercial relationships with its other portfolio companies. It is worth noting that MGC is Providence's only US CLEC investment, which, given the large number of players in this landscape, speaks volumes about the opportunities that it sees at the company. Moreover, given the typical required rates of return for a typical private equity shop, it is fair to say that Providence expects to make at least 3x its investment at $9.00 per share. We think that public investors should feel very comfortable going along for the ride. xDSL Business Plan Creates Significant Upside. We believe that MGC's new business-centric xDSL rollout is a logical move for the company that will add a significant amount of upside to the original business case. MGC is better positioned than any other CLEC to rollout xDSL as a result of its extensive network footprint The amount of geographic space covered by an object. A computer footprint is the desk or floor surface it occupies. A satellite's footprint is the earth area covered by its downlink. See form factor. 1. . At year-end 1998 MGC had the largest number of central office (CO) collocations of any company in the industry. Its 207 collocations in 7 first-tier markets enable the company to target a base of 11 million ILEC (Incumbent Local Exchange Carrier) A traditional local telephone company such as one of the Regional Bell companies (RBOCs). Contrast with CLEC. See ELEC and TELRIC. access lines. We expect the company to upgrade its existing collocation facilities for the provision of xDSL service by year-end 1999 while it simultaneously moves into 15 new markets. By leveraging the unbundled network elements Unbundled Network Elements (UNE) are a requirement mandated by the United States Telecommunications Act of 1996. They are the parts of the telecommunications network that the incumbent local exchange carriers (ILECs) are required to offer on an unbundled basis. of the ILECs coupled with xDSL technology, we believe that MGC be able to offer a bundle of local, long distance, data, and Internet Internet Publicly accessible computer network connecting many smaller networks from around the world. It grew out of a U.S. Defense Department program called ARPANET (Advanced Research Projects Agency Network), established in 1969 with connections between computers at the service to small and medium-size businesses across its territory. The ability for MGC to lease a digitally conditioned 64 Kbps unbundled loop for $15 per month and to use xDSL technology to soup up the capacity of that line to 1.54 Mbps (i.e., equal to the capacity of 24 phone lines) provides a powerful cost structure for offering voice service coupled with high-speed data and Internet. We expect to hear more about the timing and mechanics of MGC's xDSL rollout after it finalizes its strategy during the next 30 days. Financial & Operational Outlook. The Providence investment and the rollout of its xDSL strategy comes at a point when MGC has been demonstrating substantial acceleration in its financial and operational performance. MGC's 4Q98 results exceeded our expectations for revenue growth and access line installations. The company posted 32.7% sequential revenue growth and installed 11,387 access lines. In a call with management yesterday we gained comfort that the company is on track to meet or exceed our 1Q99 estimates for revenue of $7.8 million (up 20%) and 17,000 access line installations. The momentum that MGC is demonstrating in growing its business and provisioning local dialtone provides us with a high degree of confidence that it can successfully deploy xDSL. The company possesses the key collocation real estate necessary to gain access to the ILECs' unbundled loops. More importantly, MGC has developed the rare core competencies A core competency is something that a firm can do well and that meets the following three conditions specified by Hamel and Prahalad (1990):
The essential things that a company must purchase in order to maintain business. Notes: For example, the payment of employees wages are an operating expense. Also known as OPEX. and SG&A in order to ramp up Ramp Up To increase a company's operations in anticipation of increased demand. Notes: A company might 'ramp up' operations if they just signed a contract creating substantially more demand for their product. See also: Demand, Economies of Scale its product portfolio, network resources, and sales staff for the xDSL strategy. That being said, we think that any incremental Additional or increased growth, bulk, quantity, number, or value; enlarged. Incremental cost is additional or increased cost of an item or service apart from its actual cost. expenses incurred in the near term are well worth while given the significant value that will be created in the expansion of MGC's business plan. A Very Compelling Relative Valuation. We believe that MGC offers investors the most attractively valued play in the CLEC space. The company possesses scarce and strategic assets that we expect to deliver returns on invested capital higher than any fiber- based CLEC in the market today. Moreover it now plans to leverage those key assets to deploy xDSL technology in order to pursue one of the largest and most potentially profitable business opportunities in the telecom space. In light of its compelling valuation, the introduction of a key strategic investor, and the new xDSL strategy, investors should take a fresh look at MGC. We believe that the stock offers significant upside based on our discounted cash flow (DCF DCF See: Discounted Cash Flows ) model and based on the fact that company trades at a dramatic discount to any of its "smart build" or xDSL-centric comparables. MGC trades at only 2.3x its gross PP&E and 2.1x 2000E revenue while the other "Smart Build" comparable Allegiance allegiance, in political terms, the tie that binds an individual to another individual or institution. The term usually refers to a person's legal obligation of obedience to a government in return for the protection of that government, although it may have reference Telecom trades at 10.5x gross PP&E and 5.7x 2000E revenue. In the xDSL pureplay space Covad trades at 66.9x gross PP&E and 21.7x 2000E revenue. Rhythms NetConnections Rhythms NetConnections Inc. (Former NASDAQ: RTHM) was in the business of providing broadband local-access communication services to large enterprises, telecommunications carriers and their internet service provider (ISP) affiliates and other ISPs. is expected to trade at least in Covad's range when its vastly oversubscribed Refers to connecting more users to a system than can be fully supported if all of them were using it at the same time. Networks and servers are almost always designed with some amount of oversubscription, counting on the fact that everybody does not need the service simultaneously. IPO (Initial Public Offering) The first time a company offers shares of stock to the public. While not a computer term per se, many founders, employees and insiders of computer companies have found this acronym more exciting than any tech term they ever heard. finally prices this week. We expect that MGC will at least partially narrow the gap between its current depressed level and the levels of its peers of the next number of months. We Reiterate Our BUY Rating With A $35 Target Price. Another way to look at the relative valuation is in terms of enterprise value per addressable Reachable. When something is addressable, it can be identified and manipulated independently of its surroundings. For example, screen pixels and RAM memory are addressable. Each of the screen's picture elements can be individually turned on and off, and each of the memory's bytes can be line. This measure looks at the enterprise value of the company divided by the number of lines that it can address through its CO collocations - similar to looking at POPs in the early days of the cellular industry. xDSL pureplay Covad Communications Group currently enjoys $725.00 in enterprise value per addressable line. Allegiance Telecom's enterprise value is equal to about $450.00 per addressable line. Rhythms NetConnections is expected to come out at about $137.00 per line - and will no doubt double in its first day of trading. By contrast, MGC's enterprise value per addressable line is only $25.00. Does MGC deserve a discount because it does not offer marquis management like Allegiance Telecom's Royce Holland or Covad's strategic partners like AT&T and Qwest? Sure it does. But does it deserve a 95% discount? No way. We expect that investors will be willing to pay significantly higher multiples higher multiple Obstetrics Multigestation ≥ triplets: quadruplets, quintuplets, sextuplets, septuplets, octuplets, etc tuplets for MGC based on the introduction of Providence as a strategic investor, the company's new xDSL strategy, and the accelerating operating momentum that the company is demonstrating. As such, we are raising our target price to $35.00 per share. At $35.00 MGC would have a total enterprise value of $864 million equal to $79.00 per addressable line - still a healthy discount to the group. Please refer to table 1 for a look at the relative valuations in this sector. -0-
Table 1. CLEC Relative Valuation ($ in millions except for
network stats and per share data)
ALGX COVD MGCX RTHM
Stock Price $30.00 $70.00 $11.63 $17.00
Fully-Dil. Shares 62.5 64.0 25.1 75.0
Market Cap. 1,875.0 4,480.0 292.0 1,275.0
Long-Term Debt 471.7 347.6 157.3 158.3
Cash & Equivalents 731.4 480.5 171.8 335.4
Enterprise Value 1,615.2 4,347.2 277.5 1,097.9
Markets In Operation 9 6 7 10
Targeted Markets 15 16 15 40
Total Markets 24 22 22 50
CO Collocations 101 168 207 200
Addressable Lines 3.6 6.0 11.0 8.0
1999E Revenue 92.5 56.7 45.7 12.5
2000E Revenue 285.0 200.5 129.3 55.0
EV Per Addr. Line $448.70 $724.50 $25.20 $137.20
EV/1999E Revenue 17.5x 76.7x 6.1x 87.8x
EV/2000E Revenue 5.7x 21.7x 2.1x 20.0x
Source: Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc. ALGX data is pro forma for the
company's pending offering of 10.0 million shares of common stock.
COVD data is pro forma for the company's IPO and follow-on high yield
offering. MGCX is pro forma for the Providence Equity investment. RTHM
is pro forma for the company's IPO assuming the successful pricing at
the high end of the range this week.
-0- Company Mentioned: Allegiance Telecom, Inc.(a) (ALGX-$30) AT&T Corp. (T-$77 7/16) Covad Communications Group(a,b) (COVD-$70) MetroNet Communications (METNF-$54 1/8) MGC Communications, Inc.(a,b) (MGCX-$11 5/8) Qwest Communications
(a) Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc. is a market maker in the security of this company and may have a long or short position in the security. (b) Within the past three years, Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc. or one of its affiliates was the manager (co-manager) of a public offering of securities of this company and/or has performed other banking services for which it has received a fee. (c) The foregoing discussion is provided for informational purposes only. Please be reminded that this company is currently on Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc.'s (BSC (Binary Synchronous Communications) See bisync. ) corporate finance restricted list, and as such, neither solicited nor proprietary trading Proprietary Trading When a firm trades for direct gain instead of commission dollars. Essentially, the firm has decided to profit from the market rather than commissions from processing trades. shall take Stocks priced April 5, 1999 Note: MGC Communications, Inc. is an early stage provider of integrated communications services offering a bundled package of local, long distance, and related vertical services to small business and residential customers in the suburban areas of select tier-1 markets across the United States United States, officially United States of America, republic (2005 est. pop. 295,734,000), 3,539,227 sq mi (9,166,598 sq km), North America. The United States is the world's third largest country in population and the fourth largest country in area. . |
|
||||||||||||||||

Printer friendly
Cite/link
Email
Feedback
Reader Opinion