Be prepared for hurricane hell, says meteorologist.

New York City could be hit harder than it has ever been this upcoming hurricane season, said Kenneth Reeves, senior meteorologist and director of forecasting operations at Accuweather, Inc., at a recent BOMA-NY event.

According to Reeves, while there is no definitive sign that the New York area will be hit by a major storm, there are a number of signs indicating that it is a very real possibility.

New York City lies within Hurricane Zone 9, which runs from Sandy Hook, N.J. to Long Island and up to Cape Cod. With a normal hurricane intensity of 1.9, this area has the lowest risk of all ten hurricane zones, the highest risk zone being in the Carolinas and the west coast of Florida.

Despite this, 2006 could see more and higher intensity storms coming to our area. The Atlantic basin is currently in the eleventh year of a 20-year cycle of above normal hurricane activity. This fact is coupled with a cooling period expected for 2006. Reeves said that whenever a cooling period is present, it coincides with a major hurricane, alternating between the Gulf and Atlantic basins.

During the 2005 season's cooling period, the major hurricane was Katrina, which formed in the Gulf ba sin, meaning this year is likely the Atlantic's year for a major storm.

The Northeast is also seeing extremely warm Atlantic Ocean water temperatures. In fact, according to Reeves, temperature readings off the New Jersey coastline hit as high as 70 degrees in April. "You'll see this cool a bit," he said, "but it's indicative of a deep layer of warm water [making it] a breeding ground for the sustaining of hurricanes. Cooler water normally weakens hurricanes."

While Reeves notes that a direct hit to New York City is not likely, there could still be an immense amount of damage.

In December 1992, the New York City area was hit with a major Nor'easter that, among many things, shorted out the entire subway system, shut down the PATH trains, closed LaGuardia and submerged the FDR Drive under four feet of water. "If a hurricane hits, conditions could be three times as bad as 1992," he said.

If a hurricane did hit our area, "some surge poses the greatest risk of damage, destruction and death," Reeves said.

"The funneling effect of shallow water off the New Jersey and Long Island coastlines could submerge Coney Island, parts of Queens and lower Manhattan by bringing in water from the Atlantic. This could significantly alter the coastline."

Reeves said that it's important to learn from the mistakes made during Hurricane Katrina. "Think about the things New Orleans did wrong--and there were a lot of them," he said. "Planning in New York City is not in good shape." He pointed to potential East Side development plans, which is at great risk for significant flooding, as a good example of people "build[ing] up where they shouldn't be."

He also questioned the efficiency of the New York City Office of Emergency Management's evacuation map. "People here have no access to vehicles," Reeves said. "How do they get out? Certainly not by subway."

Wind will also be a big issue for many of the modern buildings in Manhattan, particularly the tall, glass buildings. As the height of the building increases, so does the strength of the wind, increasing the likelihood of the glass breaking.

Reeves said that the best thing people can do is to not only know how to protect their property from flooding, but to also have a multipurpose plan to handle a wide range of issues. Because time is precious in critical situations, these plans should be prepared and tested well in advance and should be able to cover just about any imaginable scenario.

"A lot of communities take 24 to 72 hours to evacuate," Reeves said. "You have to know what you're doing and get out of there. If you wait for the weather to come, you're done."