Bargains get shoppers rolling.

Byline: Matt Cooper The Register-Guard

Here's a new number for retailers predicting holiday sales: the shopping cart index. Dave Duncan filled two of them during the Friday crush at Target in Gateway Mall.

"My husband's like Santa," said Dave's wife, Jeanette. "He always goes all out."

That's music - cha-ching! - to many a merchant's ears. But other shoppers painted a less rosy picture at the official start of the holiday shopping season: They're not influenced by the economy, they said, but they know people who are.

Retailers call the day after Thanksgiving "Black Friday" because sales are supposed to put stores in the black. Bear in mind, however, that the day after Thanksgiving is no longer the biggest shopping day of the season - that's the Saturday before Christmas.

On the national front, retailers have reason to lick their lips: The economy and employment are up. Forecasters predicted the best sales gain for November-December in four years, at anywhere from 4.5 percent to 7 percent.

In Oregon, a $75 million surge in projected general fund dollars has people hoping for the end of a two-year slide in revenue.

But then there's Lane County: There were 11,500 people out of work last month (6.8 percent), up 1,500 from a year ago and well above the national jobless rate.

While retailers elsewhere are banking on strong consumer confidence as they cut back on discounts, that could be risky business in the Eugene-Springfield area.

"Compared to the previous year, holiday shopping is probably lower in Lane County," said Cary Claar, owner of B & I True Value Hardware in Springfield. "We've had more sustained job losses."

Although the economy was not a factor for a half-dozen or so shoppers interviewed Friday, some of them mentioned friends or in-laws who live on tight budgets.

Claar needed to look no further than the vacant apartments nearby to know that the local economy could put a damper on holiday sales.

It depends on the work you do. Dave Duncan, a self-employed builder, has seen his gross sales double in volume as the federal government has lowered interest rates to spark growth; he and Jeanette planned to spend $800 to $1,000 this season.

Across town, the Valley River Center parking lot was packed by noon - a good sign for marketing manager Amy Bresler.

"People seem to be more upbeat, and I think the feeling is the economy is turning around," she said. "The overall feel is that people are very hopeful."

General Growth Properties, which owns and manages 166 malls in 39 states including Valley River Center, said retail has seen single-digit increases compared to a year ago.

Merchants like Sears, Roebuck and Co., office-supplies retailer Staples, K-B Toys and several major mall operators reported that traffic and business as of Friday afternoon were at least as healthy as a year ago.

Furthermore, some retail executives were heartened that shoppers were buying regular-priced goods, as well - a stark difference from last year, when consumers stuck to bargain items.

But sisters Denise Ledbetter and Deanna Greene were disappointed with the number of bargains at Valley River Center: "I have a 2-year-old daughter," Greene said, "there weren't very many toy deals."

It's difficult to say how each store is trying to draw people, Bresler said, but she guessed retailers are offering a combination of deals, perks and exotic merchandise.

At B & I in Springfield, for example, shoppers rack up points toward gift certificates.

Customers Janell Hiebenthal, 17, and her mother, Sue, don't put much stock in the economic climate when they tackle their Christmas shopping lists. But the younger Hiebenthal said some parents' budgets have been stretched so thin that their kids have stepped up to play Santa Claus.

"A lot of the teens are saying they're buying more gifts for their parents because their parents don't have the money to buy things for themselves," she said.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

HOT TOYS IN 2003

No must-have toy has emerged this year, but bestsellers include:

Fisher-Price's Hokey Pokey Elmo

Spin Master's Mighty Beanz collectible plastic toys 

MGA Entertainment's Bratz dolls

Mattel's Hot Wheels T-Wrecks playsets

- The Associated Press

CAPTION(S):

Dave Duncan of Marcola guards a pair of overloaded shopping carts while his wife, Jeanette, hunts down post-Thanksgiving Day bargains at Target on Friday morning. Duncan, a self-employed builder, has seen his gross sales double this year as low interest rates spurred growth. HOT TOYS IN 2003 No must-have toy has emerged this year, but bestsellers include: Fisher-Price's Hokey Pokey Elmo Spin Master's Mighty Beanz collectible plastic toys MGA Entertainment's Bratz dolls Mattel's Hot Wheels T-Wrecks playsets - The Associated Press