Bali Results And Future Prospects.

Keywords: Bali, Framework Convention, United Nations, Climate Change Conference, Indonesia, climate change, Kyoto Protocol, emissions

Originally published December 31, 2007

The 2007 United Nations Climate Change Conference was held in Indonesia in December of 2007 with more than 10,000 participants. Nearly 190 developed and developing country delegates met in Bali over a two-week period and produced a two-track process — one under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (the "Convention") and the other under its related treaty, the Kyoto Protocol (the "Protocol") — both of which are set for completion in December 2009 in Copenhagen, Denmark. The tracks, collectively referred to as the "Bali road map," set forth an identical timetable of four sessions annually, starting in March-April 2008 in Ghana, that over the next two years are aimed at culminating in proposed decisions to address emissions in the future to be adopted at Copenhagen.

Each track is to be conducted by separate ad hoc working groups. The group working under the Protocol has been designated as being about "Further Commitments" for developed country Protocol Parties. Its work concerns "consideration of commitments" for the post-2012 periods (when the first protocol commitment period of 2008-20012 expires) solely for developed country Parties, which does not include the United States.

The group working under the Convention has been designated as about "Long-Term Cooperative Action," which includes both developed and developing countries and "a long-term goal for emissions reductions." It is intended to address "national/international action" on mitigation of climate change, including "consideration" of "quantified" emission limits and reduction "objectives" for all developed country Convention Parties, including the United States, and "mitigation actions" by developing country Convention Parties "in the context of sustainable development." Emphasis is also placed on enhanced action on adaptation, and for both mitigation and adaptation, on technology development and transfer, including removal of obstacles to, and providing financial and other incentives for, developing country Parties to gain "access to environmentally sound technologies." Inherent in the technology development and transfer mantra, is the issue of intellectual property rights, which developing country Parties want to obtain from developed country governments.

There is no provision for joining the two tracks as one before Copenhagen, or even then. The term "mitigation actions" for the Convention track provides both vagueness and flexibility for developed and developing countries. Also, absent from that track, at the insistence not only of the United States, but also Australia, Canada, Japan, and the Russian Federation, is any reference to an outcome-related emission reduction percentage, such as was urged by the European Union and the developing countries at Bali. However, the EU reduction percentage of 25-40 percent below 1990 levels by 2020 does appear in the Protocol track conclusions for its developed country Parties.

Both Bali tracks are ambitious, although the Protocol track, which actually launched in Montreal in 2005, has a head start. Nevertheless, it is unlikely to surpass the Convention track because it only applies to the developed country Protocol Parties. The Bali Convention process will engage all of the emitting Parties, including the United States and developing countries, such as China, Indonesia, India, and Brazil. Although two years are built in for both tracks, provision is made for a review of progress in December 2008. While this time period will see two US Administrations, the progress review will occur before the next Administration takes office.

The Bali roadmap provides guidance to engage for the first time in negotiations for a new climate framework: one that affects all Convention Parties and is aimed at reaching a post-2012 agreement. Among other things, the Convention process is to consider sectoral approaches, sector-specific actions, and the use of markets regarding mitigation actions, "bearing in mind different circumstances of developed and developing countries." While the time period is compacted, the issues are expansive. Including "mitigation actions" by all emitting countries will be difficult, nevertheless the two track process will be transparent and under constant scrutiny.

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