Bahrain-Qatar Dispute Causes Split In GCC, Under US Umbrella:.

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NICOSIA - The territorial dispute between Bahrain and Qatar is re-opening divisions within the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) at a time when the improving economic climate in the region is being balanced by geo-political uncertainties on the horizon. The dispute, now being adjudicated by the International Court of Justice at The Hague, is simultaneously being mediated by Saudi Arabia and to a lesser extent by the other GCC member states - Oman, the UAE and Kuwait. None of the parties involved want the split to become serious. But at the same time the mediators are themselves influenced by issues beyond the question of whether the disputed territory - i.e. the islands of Hawar, Fasht Al Dibal, Qitat Jarada and the Zubara strip - belong to Bahrain or Qatar.

The dispute has separated the GCC into groups that subtly support either side, i.e. the "northern GCC" (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain) and the "southern GCC" (Qatar, Oman and the UAE). This is a divide that first emerged during the 1980-88 Gulf war and then became clearer at the time of the Gulf crisis when the southern members were less tough in their approach to Iraq than the northern members wanted. Indeed, Oman and Qatar maintained links with Baghdad throughout the past decade. At present the UAE and Qatar are among the strongest proponents of finding some way to get the embargo on Iraq lifted or at least partially removed.

The "super-mediator" in the Bahrain-Qatar dispute on the one hand and the north-south GCC split on the other is the US, which is providing the security umbrella that keeps the Arabian Peninsula safe from external threats. At the same time, Washington manages to ensure that the self-interest of the ruling families continue to be in maintaining the status quo through smooth successions. It is believed that this self-interest will also prevent ruling families from taking territorial disputes and north-south splits to the point where their own regimes are threatened by forces such as militant Islam.

The shift of radical Islam away from the Middle East towards the Afghanistan/Pakistan region is of particular importance to the GCC states. This radicalism, focused currently around the Taliban in Afghanistan but spreading east towards Pakistan and north towards Central Asia and the Caucasus, is underpinned by the Wahhabi branch of Sunnism, which is predominant in the GCC. Indeed, media reports in recent years have pointed out that an important source of funds for the Taliban and other Sunni radical groups in the area originate from private contributors in the GCC.

Apart from Pakistan, only the governments of Saudi Arabia and the UAE have recognised the Taliban. But all the GCC states are very careful to prevent any kind of spread of the Taliban version of Sunni Islam towards the peninsula, and are well aware that infighting between them would allow this to happen. The Western powers are also aware of this reality. The Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) in a recent report pointed out that Sunni militancy and resultant terrorism would prove to be the major threat to world security in the coming years.

So far, the US has not been needed to intervene overtly on the Bahrain-Qatar dispute; in fact, to some extent Washington has benefited from the dispute as both Manama and Doha are competing to offer the American military forces bigger, better and socially friendlier base facilities. Washington is keen to improve the basing arrangements for US defence personnel in the GCC because of resistance among Americans to join the military in general (in view of better opportunities in business, particularly in the IT sector), and to serve in the Arab World in particular. There are even indications that the US may have to downgrade its presence in the region gradually because of this issue. Bahrain has long served as a recreation base for the US, but this has become more sensitive since the Islamic opposition came to the surface in the emirate in 1994.

Qatar, by contrast, is emerging as a completely different prospect. The Emir, Shaikh Hamad Bin Khalifa Al Thani, is seen as a very liberal figure. His wife, who maintains a high profile, is well educated like him and gives her opinions during interviews. His son and Crown Prince, Shaikh Jassim Bin Hamad, is also highly educated, Westernised and fluent in English and French.

The progressive approach of the Emir is reflected in his overall attitude towards issues like freedom of the press, democracy, etc. which is appealing to the West. Qatar's 'Al Jazira' TV channel, for instance, is perhaps the most popular channel in the region because of its free-wheeling political debates in which opposition groups and parties from across the region are given air time for their opinions. The Emir has also launched a series of economic reform measures in recent years, aimed at turning Qatar into a competitive business and tourism centre.

All this has caused serious concern in the more conservative "northern GCC" states, particularly Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. But the concern is mixed with an interest in observing whether Qatar succeeds. Thus, on the one hand they are concerned that pushing ahead with such changes at a rapid pace will cause instability. On the other, if Qatar succeeds, they could use that as a test case to proceed with similar liberalisation measures. Saudi Arabia, for example, is moving ahead with economic reforms and privatisation at a fairly rapid pace - despite latent fears that privatisation could tilt the balance of the power structure in the kingdom away from the House of Saud to some extent.

Whether the Bahrain-Qatar dispute will flare up remains to be seen, but few observers expect it to result in military hostilities. They point out that the differences within and among the GCC states are becoming increasingly like "quarrels within a federation", where the solution is usually found through internal mechanisms. At a GCC foreign ministers meeting in Jeddah on June 4, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al Faisal said: "I am not revealing a secret when I say we are all busy with the relations between Qatar and Bahrain".

What the dispute has done is to create a negative atmosphere and to hold up economic linkages between the two countries. It has also provided space for intra-GCC intrigues. In some ways the reactions within the GCC to the Bahrain-Qatar dispute is also a generational issue, with the southern GCC tending to reflect the views of the younger generation while the northern side tends to have a more conservative outlook. The younger GCC nationals, for their part, do not care much for these disputes as they are already fairly well integrated, being allowed to travel and mingle within the six member states with relative freedom.