Backers, critics clash over electric car future.

Hearings review regulatory order set for 1998

Leaders of California's fledgling electric car industry are concerned that a state agency's regulation mandating that electric vehicles make up 2 percent of all cars marketed in California in 1998 is in jeopardy of being eliminated.

The California Air Resources Board voted in 1990 that 2 percent of all cars available for sale in the state emit zero pollution, which means electric cars. The decision has long been opposed by oil industry and the large automakers.

CARB last month began holding a series of 11 hearings on the electric car mandate rule. It will hold the hearings so that automakers and others can testify about changes in electric car technology since 1990, said Dan Pellissier, spokesman for the Wilson administration and the California Environmental Protection Agency. Automakers and others can ask for changes in the electric car regulation during the hearings, he added.

At the same time, the oil industry and automakers have launched massive public education campaigns warning about the pitfalls of electric cars.

They "are pulling out all the stops to blow up the mandate," said Bill Van Amburg, spokesman for Calstart, a Burbank-based non-profit organization which promotes the development of alternative-fuel vehicle technology.

Van Amburg accused the oil industry and the automakers of setting up "astro-turf" movements to fight the mandate. "Astro-turf" is political jargon for something which looks like a grassroots action started by community activists, but is actually a movement funded by big business interests.

Officials of the Western States Petroleum Association, the trade group for the oil industry, and the American Automobile Manufacturer Association, which represents the Big Three U.S. automakers, said they have "participated" in funding mailings critical of the electric car mandate to journalists around the state.

Dave Modisette, executive director of the California Electric Transportation Coalition, a Sacramento-based trade group representing the electric car industry, said he is worried the mandate could be in trouble.

"We don't have any indication that the governor or the air resources board is going to back off of the mandate, but the pressure is intense," Modisette said.

Pellissier of the Wilson administration and the California EPA said the Air Resources Board could amend the mandate that 2 percent of all vehicles sold in California by 1998 be electric.

He said automakers have expressed concerns to the air board that consumers will not buy the electric vehicles they could produce with current technology because those vehicles would carry hefty price tags.

The air board is willing to listen to those concerns and has been watching the technology develop since the mandate was adopted in 1990, he said.

"We are not head-in-the-sand regulators that assume that the world we envisioned in 1990 has come true in 1998," Pellissier said.

The CARB staff may suggest changes, based on testimony which will be given at the hearings, which will conclude in October, he said. And the air board may then consider adopting proposed changes at its first 1996 meeting in January, Pellissier said.

Mass mailings

"We will not know what adjustments might need to be made until all of the evidence has been brought forward and evaluated by the world's leading experts on alternative vehicle technology," he said.

"The decision is not going to be based on public opinion," Pellissier said. He added it was "clear" there are several groups "out there trying to change public opinion."

The California Manufacturers Association has been sending out mailings to 1,000 to about 1,500 opinion makers. "We are trying to make sure that the policy makers and opinion leaders are aware of what the problems are with the mandate," said Jack Stewart, executive vice president of the CMA.

The CMA has planned a 10-part series about "why California's electric car mandate is a bad idea that should be stopped."

It decided to launch this campaign in April. after officials from Detroit-based auto companies, General Motors Corp., Chrysler Corp. and Ford Motor Co., and "all the major oil companies" met with them and convinced them to start this campaign.

Stewart said the American automakers are members of the CMA, even though they have shut down most of their manufacturing facilities around state in the last few decades.

The American Automobile Manufacturers Association is paying for part of the California manufacturers effort, said Jim Austin, Western states lobbyist for the AAMA.

Doug Henderson, executive director of the Western States Petroleum Association. said that group was a major source of funds liar Citizens Against Hidden Taxes, which is campaigning against electric vehicles for taxation reasons.

"In order to persuade people to buy electric cars, they will have to be heavily subsidized by taxpayers and consumers," said Anita Mangels, executive director of Citizens Against Hidden Taxes.

Sacramento-based Sierra Research Inc. pegged the cost of subsidies and other incentives and other hidden costs for fulfilling the electric car mandates at $20 billion, she said. That study, which was funded by WSPA, was released in April, Mangels said.

Economic effect

Henderson said WSPA opposes the mandate on grounds that it "hurts California because it is a continuing sign that California is unfriendly to business."

Austin of AAMA said automakers are against the mandate because consumers will not buy the cars. He cited one main reason: the electric car can only go about 100 miles before it needs to be recharged.

Calstart's Van Amburg noted some gasoline-powered cars that are converted into electric cars can only get about 75 to 100 miles on a charge. But vehicles built to be electric cars can get many more miles on a charge, he said, noting an electric car recently was driven 238 miles on a single charge.

Van Amburg said oil companies are spending money to defeat the mandate and sour consumers on the electric cars because they are afraid of "losing their monopoly on transportation fuel."

He asked rhetorically, "If electric vehicles are as bad as (opponents) say they are, what are they so worried about?"

Currently, about 1,600 people in California are employed in the electric car and other alternative vehicle industries, he said. Calstart projects that. if the mandate stays in place, 12,000 will be employed in the alternative vehicle industry.

"If California doesn't have the mandate, you will have the impact of drying up some investment in California," Van Amburg said. Electric vehicles will get built, but the new industry's hub won't be in California, he added.

RELATED ARTICLE: Electric car studies in conflict

Supporters and opponents of a state regulation that 2 percent of all cars available for sale in 1998 be electric-powered last week released contradicting studies on whether or not Californians would buy the cars.

A University of California at Davis researcher, at a news conference sponsored by environmental groups and an electric car industry group, said 7 to 15 percent of new-car buyers would be willing to purchase an electric-powered car in 1998.

But at another news conference across town, representatives of U.S. automakers told reporters they would only be able to sell 3,500 electric cars in 1998 - far less than the 25,000 required under the state regulation.

The California Air Resources Board voted in 1990 that 2 percent of all cars available for sale in the state emit zero pollution, which means electric cars. The decision has long been opposed by the oil industry and automakers and supported by environmentalists and electric car developers.

CARB is holding a series of hearings on whether the mandate should be changed.

The Detroit automakers "are trying to crush a marketplace for a new type of vehicle that does exist," said Bill Van Amburg, spokesman for Calstart, a non-profit organization which works to develop advanced transportation technologies.

But representatives of General Motors Corp., Chrysler Corp. and Ford Motor Co. said consumers would not buy the electric cars they can build under current technology.

Costly 'fuel'

The battery is the hangup, said John Wallace, director of electric vehicles at Ford. It is too expensive, has too short a life and must be recharged too often, he said.

The battery costs about $5,000, must be replaced every two years and can power a car for 60 to 100 miles before it needs recharging, according to the automakers.

"If we launch this technology, we will disappoint the consumer," Wallace said.

But UC Davis found there is a market for the non-polluting cars among households which own two or more cars, said Tom Turrentine, researcher at the university's Institute of Transportation Studies.

Those householders would use the electric car for commuting, chauffeuring kids, shopping and other local travel, he said. They would use gasoline-powered cars for longer trips and vacations, he said.