Back To The Unrest In Lebanon.

The Daily Star on Sept. 18 said there was an increasing number of stories circulating in West Beirut describing nightly incidents of Shi'ite Amal elements (with Syria-guided Amal being an ally of Hizbullah) attacking Sunnis, adding: "In Ras al-Nabeh, there are problems almost every day of that nature. In the strip of mixed Sunni-Shi'ite quarters between Mar Elias and the Bishara al-Khoury boulevard, groups of young men, clearly those who fought in the street battles last May, spend their evenings on the sidewalks checking out whoever walks by. A surprising number of journalists or writers who sympathize with the March 14 Coalition, most of them [Sunni] Muslims, have moved to [Christian] Eastern Beirut because they feel unsafe in the other half of the capital. And some March 14 activists cannot even live in their own homes because people regularly drive by, inquire about their whereabouts, and insult them".

The paper said since May, West Beirut streets "have been effectively controlled by those [Shi'ite or other Syria-guided] parties that won the round of fighting at the time. That doesn't mean that a night out on the town is fraught with danger. By and large everything appears normal on the surface, particularly in the quarters around Ras Beirut. But when a journalist from a pro-Hariri newspaper tells you that two unidentified men boldly sat in on a recent interview with him conducted at a cafe in the early evening on Hamra Street, his point is more subtle: Those who want to engage in intimidation can do so with no fear that the security forces or the Army will intervene.

The leaders of the parties controlling West Beirut may or may not be encouraging their partisans to apply coercive behaviour, but the Star said: "it is plain that they are doing nothing to prevent it. The reason appears to be that in the run-up to [2009] parliamentary elections, the March 8 parties, particularly Hizbullah, Amal, the Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP) and the Marada, want to be sure they can shape electoral outcomes in their favor".

This may come by exerting pressure on voters, or by creating tension to prevent voting. Even outside West Beirut, in districts which will decide the balance in parliament, including Sidon, Koura, the Western Beqa', Zahleh and B'abda, the Iran/Syria-backed opposition has great leeway to manipulate developments on the ground to get the results it seeks.

The Star said: "The politicians may spend months discussing a 'defense strategy', but conditions in Lebanon will be determined to a large extent by those strains little seen or heard. For example, the reason...Jumblatt...and Hizbullah met under the auspices of Talal Arslan...was to normalize a worrisome relationship between the two Shi'ite villages in the 'Aley district, Qmatiyeh and Kayfoun, and the Druze communities around them, particularly in Baysour [where 'Aridi was assassinated]... The Druze will not forget that last May Hizbullah temporarily took over Hill 888 overlooking 'Aley because its combatants were infiltrated through Kayfoun.

"The brief breakout of fighting this week in Ta'lbaya, on the road between [east Lebanon's] Shtaura and Zahleh, showed how another tinderbox has been left to fester. The Army is present in Ta'lbaya, but the disposition of the communities makes enforcing security difficult. Shi'ites and Sunnis live among each other in much of the town, with Shi'ites controlling the high ground and able to reinforce themselves militarily from the village of Ha'zerta, located above Zahleh.

"There is no easy way to prevent youths from insulting each other in Ta'lbaya's streets... That is why small incidents can transform themselves into major confrontations at the drop of a hat. The only way to neutralize these and other similar flashpoints is to go to the source of the problem... But all the signs are that the [March 8] parties' aim is precisely the opposite.

"...[I]t is useful to deploy men with guns close by when discussing such issues as the 'defense strategy', Palestinian weapons outside the [refugee] camps, relations with Syria, Lebanese financing for the Hariri tribunal, parliamentary elections, and a host of other contentious issues sure to divide politicians in the months ahead.

"That's why if Suleiman wants to sponsor a truly successful...dialogue, he will have to...prove that the state controls the streets, all the streets. But if the state cannot do so, if it cannot even impose its writ in areas of Beirut, then what credibility will it have when presenting its Army as a legitimate alternative to Hizbullah's independent army? Of course that's precisely the question Hizbullah wants us to ask".

There are, meanwhile, a series of violent incidents allegedly designed by the Syrian regime to prevent national reconciliation. 'Aridi, a key figure in the reconciliation process, was assassinated on Sept. 10. A series of bomb blasts shook West Beirut in the early hours of Sept. 15; Sept 16 saw the LAF drawn into pitched battles with residents of a mixed Sunni-Shi'ite village in the Beqa'; on Sept. 17 intra-Christian violence broke out as Lebanese Forces (LF) and Syria-backed Marada gunmen clashed in the northern town of Bsarma, with one killed from each side. These were just examples of incidents running in parallel with the new wave of reconciliations.