BUCEC Believes IT's Biggest Productivity Gains Lie Ahead; Moore's Law Will Continue To Apply For The Foreseeable Future.

Business Editors/High-Tech Writers

TYNGSBORO, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Feb. 26, 2004

Can computers grow better, faster and cheaper at the same rate as they have for the past 40 years?

They not only can, but they should have a greater impact on productivity than they have had in the past, according to Charlie Orosz, Director of Curriculum and Instruction at the Boston University Corporate Education Center (BUCEC).

"Many people believe the silicon chip is reaching its limits," Orosz said. "Even if that's true, other technologies are progressing fast enough to take over when we've exhausted the limits of silicon."

Growth in computing speed and power has followed Moore's Law since Intel Corporation founder Gordon Moore developed it in 1965. Moore predicted that the number of transistors that could be placed on a square inch of semiconductors would double annually over the coming decade, resulting in computers that are better, faster and cheaper. He was right, but adjusted his prediction in 1975, claiming that density would double every couple of years. The revised Moore's Law remains accurate today.

"Arguments that Moore's Law will collide with the laws of physics are irrelevant," according to Orosz. "Even if we had already reached the limits of silicon, computers could continue to boost productivity, because people today are using only a fraction of their available computing power. The CPU (computer processing unit) is not reaching its full potential, not only because other computer components are not advanced enough to keep up with it, but because computer users are not adequately trained to harness the power of the computer."

Orosz cites several reasons why computers, and computer users, will continue to advance at a high speed for the foreseeable future:

Kurzweil's Law of Accelerating Intelligence. Author and inventor Ray Kurzweil identifies silicon transistors as the fifth paradigm of computing power, following, in succession, computers based on punch cards, relays, vacuum tubes and transistors. By the time silicon transistors reach their limits, Orosz believes that three-dimensional, molecular-scale organic transistors will replace them - and will provide even faster growth in computing power.

Training will bring greater efficiencies. Even as technology advances and becomes highly automated, it still depends on people, Orosz says. For technology to achieve its potential, employees must be trained to use it, the organization must embrace the new technology and the technology must be properly matched to the organization's needs, he said.

Increasing speed isn't the only way to increase productivity. While computers may boost productivity as they become faster and more powerful, they can also boost productivity in other ways, such as by reducing downtime.

Businesses must adjust to new technology. When new technology is implemented, it takes time for the business to learn to use it effectively, Orosz said. While computers have been widely available for decades, organizations are still learning how to use them effectively, he added.

Orosz added that computers already are likely contributing more to productivity than they receive credit for. Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Solow caused a stir in 1987 when he said computers were appearing "everywhere except in the productivity statistics." More refined study methods have since proven the "productivity paradox" to be inaccurate.

"We can only guess how much IT will contribute to productivity growth in the future," Orosz said. "Attempts to measure it will likely continue to be as problematic as they have been in the past. But we do know that companies that fail to embrace technology and support its use will be left behind and, in some cases, will be put out of business, while those that are leaders in adapting new technology will continue to outperform their competitors."

Additional details about the impact of computers on productivity are available in a white paper developed by Orosz, "IT's Greatest Contributions To Productivity Growth May Still Lie Ahead," which can be ordered through the BUCEC Web site at www.BUTrain.com or by calling 1-800-BUTrain (288-7246).

About Boston University Corporate Education Center

As New England's premier training provider, the Boston University Corporate Education Center (BUCEC) offers individuals and corporations programs in management development and information technology. It also provides customized group training solutions to enable organizations to meet their business goals. Featuring curriculum that is a unique mix of classroom lecture and hands-on, real-world project training, BUCEC provides state-of-the-art computer labs and practitioner-instructors who are unmatched in the industry. Microsoft Corporation selected BUCEC from training centers worldwide to receive the prestigious Worldwide Excellence in Authorized Technical Education Center Award, and has named BUCEC a Gold Certified Partner for Learning Solutions. BUCEC has been awarded the CompTIA (Computing Technology Industry Association) "Career Awareness Award" in recognition of its innovative training programs and exceptional student resources. BUCEC is headquartered in Tyngsboro, Mass., with additional training facilities in Braintree, Waltham and Boston. To learn more about BUCEC, please visit the Web site at www.BUTrain.com or call 1-800-BUTrain (288-7246).