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BRUINS IN WITH WIN? PROBABLY.


Byline: Jon Wilner Daily News Staff Writer

UCLA UCLA University of California at Los Angeles
UCLA University Center for Learning Assistance (Illinois State University)
UCLA University of Carrollton, TX and Lower Addison, TX
 strengthened its hold on second place and closed to within .04 points of No. 1 Tennessee in the latest Bowl Championship Series rankings. However, the Bruins' postseason fate remains uncertain.

A victory at Miami on Saturday doesn't guarantee them a spot in the Fiesta Bowl The Fiesta Bowl, now sponsored by Tostitos tortilla chips (a Frito-Lay product), is a United States college football game played annually since 1971. Originally, the game was hosted in Tempe, Arizona at Sun Devil Stadium where it remained until 2006.  if Tennessee and No. 3 Kansas State also win, but it comes pretty close.

``If all three teams win out, they won't know which bowl they're playing in until Sunday - it's that close,'' said Charles Bloom, co-creator of the BCS (1) (The British Computer Society, Swindon, Wiltshire, England, www.bcs.org) The chartered body for information technology professionals in the U.K., founded in 1957.  poll and assistant commissioner of the Southeastern Conference.

UCLA leads Kansas State by 1.28 points - a .04 increase over last week - but the Wildcats are expected to gain ground in the BCS' schedule-strength component because they play No. 8 Texas A&M in the Big 12 Championship game Saturday.

``Kansas State is going to get a pretty good bump by playing A&M,'' Bloom said. ``The question will be, is it big enough. The other question is if the (Top 25) polls and computer rankings change.''

The BCS formula combines Top 25-poll average, computer-poll average and a strength-of-schedule quotient quotient - The number obtained by dividing one number (the "numerator") by another (the "denominator"). If both numbers are rational then the result will also be rational. . The teams with the fewest overall points meet in the Fiesta Bowl on Jan. 4. The final BCS poll will be announced Sunday morning Sunday Morning may refer to:
  • "Sunday Morning (radio program)", a Canadian radio program formerly aired on CBC Radio One
  • CBS News Sunday Morning, a television news program on CBS in the United States
  • Sunday Morning (TBS TV series)
.

The Bruins actually trail Kansas State by 1.5 points in the Top 25 average but lead by .58 in the computer average and 2.2 in the schedule-strength quotient.

Their schedule is ranked seventh in the nation; Kansas State's is 62nd. Each spot in the schedule rankings represents .04 BCS points.

Here's what it all means: If the polls and computer rankings stay the same, then Kansas State needs a net change of 32 places in the schedule rankings to catch the Bruins.

That seems unlikely. The Wildcats jumped 11 spots in the schedule rankings after they beat Nebraska, and they gained six spots after defeating Missouri. What bounce would Texas A&M bring?

``I think it would be in the ballpark of an 11-15 (spot jump),'' Bloom said. ``That won't be enough, unless the polls or computer rankings change.''

If all three teams win, the polls probably won't change. Kansas State is already No. 1 in the coaches' poll, so it has no room for growth. And even if the Wildcats defeat Texas A&M soundly, a Tennessee victory should keep the Vols on top in the Associated Press Associated Press: see news agency.
Associated Press (AP)

Cooperative news agency, the oldest and largest in the U.S. and long the largest in the world.
 poll.

That leaves the computers. If the Bruins fall from No. 1 in the Seattle Times poll, which emphasizes strength of schedule, and if Kansas State jumps a spot or two the New York New York, state, United States
New York, Middle Atlantic state of the United States. It is bordered by Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and the Atlantic Ocean (E), New Jersey and Pennsylvania (S), Lakes Erie and Ontario and the Canadian province of
 Times poll, which emphasizes victory margin, those changes could jeopardize jeop·ard·ize  
tr.v. jeop·ard·ized, jeop·ard·iz·ing, jeop·ard·izes
To expose to loss or injury; imperil. See Synonyms at endanger.
 UCLA's hold on second place.

``There are just too many variables,'' Bloom said.

What about victory margin? What if the Bruins win by three points and Kansas State wins by 23?

``Margin of victory will be a factor but not an overriding (programming) overriding - Redefining in a child class a method or function member defined in a parent class.

Not to be confused with "overloading".
 factor,'' Bloom said. ``It won't be the deciding factor.''

And what about Tennessee and Kansas State playing 12 games to UCLA's 11? The Bruins fear they'll get punished pun·ish  
v. pun·ished, pun·ish·ing, pun·ish·es

v.tr.
1. To subject to a penalty for an offense, sin, or fault.

2. To inflict a penalty for (an offense).

3.
 for not having a Pac-10 championship game.

``It's only an advantage if the 12th game is against a quality opponent, and in that case it helps strength of schedule,'' Bloom said. ``But if you're playing a 12th game, there's an extra chance for a loss, so there's a risk involved.''

BOWL CHAMPIONSHIP STANDINGS

Through Games of Nov. 30

Poll Comp

School AP U-E U-E Uniformly-Spaced Equalizers   Avg. ST Sagarin NYT NYT New York Times
NYT National Youth Theatre (UK)
NYT New York Transit (New York, USA)
NYT New York Tribune
  Avg. Skd QRnk L Tot.

1. Tennessee 1 2 1.5 2 3 2 2.33 29 1.16 0 4.99

2. UCLA 3 3 3.0 1 2 (2.25) 1.75 7 0.28 0 5.03

3. Kansas St. 2 1 1.5 3 1 3 2.33 62 2.48 0 6.31

4. Florida St. 4 4 4.0 4 4 1 3.00 5 0.20 1 8.20

5. Ohio St. 5 5 5.0 6 5 5 5.33 25 1.00 1 12.33

6. Arizona 6 6 6.0 5 6 7 6.00 54 2.16 1 15.16

7. Florida 7 7 7.0 10 9 10 9.67 28 1.12 2 19.79

8. Texas A&M 10 10 10.0 7 8 8 7.67 13 0.52 2 20.19

9. Wisconsin 8 8 8.0 9 10 9 9.33 63 2.52 1 20.85

10. Tulane9 9 9.0 8 16 (18) 14.00 97 3.88 0 26.88

11. Nebraska 13 17 15.0 11 7 (13.5) 10.50 14 0.56 3 29.06

12. Georgia Tech 12 14 13.0 17 20 10 15.67 44 1.76 232.43

13. Arkansas 11 11 11.0 18 15 21 18.00 592.36 2 33.36

14. Virginia 14 12 13.0 14 19 17 16.67 43 1.72 2 33.39

15. Syracuse 18 18 18.0 (17.25) 17 6 13.42 31 1.24 3 35.66

Explanation Key

Poll Average: The average of The Associated Press media poll and USA Today-ESPN coaches poll. Others receiving votes are calculated in order received.

Computer Average: The average of The Hester & Anderson/Seattle Times, Jeff Sagarin's rankings and New York Times rankings. In order to prevent differences in individual formulas, a maximum adjusted deviation DEVIATION, insurance, contracts. A voluntary departure, without necessity, or any reasonable cause, from the regular and usual course of the voyage insured.
     2.
 of no greater than 50 percent of the average of the two lowest computer rankings is utilized.

Quartile Quartile

A statistical term describing a division of observations into four defined intervals based upon the values of the data and how they compare to the entire set of observations.

Notes:
Each quartile contains 25% of the total observations.
 Rank: Rank of schedule strength compared to other Division I-A teams divided by 25. This component is calculated by determining the cumulative won/loss records of the team's opponent (66.6 percent) and the cumulative won/loss records of the team's opponents opponents (33.3 percent).

Losses: One point for each loss during the season.

Notes: BCS rankings each week will list the top 15 or down to the lowest-ranked BCS-affiliated conference leader. Adjusted computer scores in parentheses See parenthesis.

parentheses - See left parenthesis, right parenthesis.
 (Seattle Times raw scores: Syracuse 27. New York Times' raw scores: UCLA 4; Tulane 22; Nebraska 15)

CAPTION(S):

Box

BOX: BOWL CHAMPIONSHIP STANDINGS (see text)
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No portion of this article can be reproduced without the express written permission from the copyright holder.
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Title Annotation:SPORTS
Publication:Daily News (Los Angeles, CA)
Date:Dec 1, 1998
Words:1032
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