BRAZIL: NOTHING QUIRKY.

Byline: PAUL OBERJUERGE

SEOUL, South Korea

Fourteen teams still competing in the World Cup, at this writing.

Perhaps only three really contending.

We know by now this has been a strange World Cup. The Asian setting discombobulated some of the traditional powers, and the eternal European club season disrupted others.

We know the list of prominent casualties. Defending champion France, goal-less and gone. Pre-tournament favorite Argentina, victims of David Beckham's penalty and Sweden's impenetrable defense. Highly regarded Portugal, out in a flurry of red cards and petulance.

We know the dark horses who have gone to the glue factory. Cameroon, African Team of the Century and Olympic gold medalists in 2000, unable to deal with Ireland. Croatia, third in France '98, third in Group G in Korea/Japan. Nigeria, a sort of sub-Saharan Brazil in '94 and '98, dull, lifeless and three-and-out.

And we know the success stories, topped by co-hosts Japan and South Korea, undefeated group champs, surfing atop national hysteria but playing well, too. Senegal, the least fancied African team coming in, the only one going on to the second round. And the United States, which milked that first-half flurry against Portugal and a tie with South Korea into the final 16.

Fourteen left, but only three we see with a real chance to raise a trophy in Yokohama, Japan, on June 30.

Much of it has to do with bracketing. The luck of the draw. One quadrant in each of the bracket halves is markedly easier than the other. That means two teams coasting into the semis, two battling into them.

Germany is perhaps the least-loved soccer nation on the planet; their hard, direct style finds few admirers, but they are not a side you want to face in crunch time. The Germans also have the straightest path to the semis. Chilavert and Paraguay already dispatched, the Mexico-U.S. survivor in the quarters, and there the Germans are, two victories from Cup victory No. 4.

The other half of this bracket, though, is a different story.

Spain should have dispatched the courageous but plodding Irish in the second round, and The Biggest Underachievers in Soccer then get the Italy-South Korea winner in the quarters.

That is a compelling match. South Korea is all energy and grit and enthusiasm, and their fans dance in the streets every time they score a point. Italy, meanwhile, is the epitome of tired Euro cynicism, world weary but savvy, doing just enough to win. The Italians know how to pace themselves, and we're thinking they disappoint the Koreans, just, on an early Christian Vieri goal.

So, Spain and Italy in the quarters. Flip a coin. We'll take Paolo Maldini and the Italian backline over Raul and Spain's offensive flair.

That puts Italy against the Germans, and both are among that select group of former winners who tend to play big when the list of teams get short. Too close to call, but one goal should be plenty.

In the other bracket, the soft half is the Japan, Turkey, Sweden and Senegal foursome. You can make a compelling case for any of them, the combative and graceless Turks, aside. Japan is rather like South Korea, with a bit less energy and a bit more sophistication, and we like them over the Turks, provoking a party on the Ginza.

Sweden and Senegal is compelling, a study in contrasts. Euro cool, Scandinavian strength and size, vs. African excitement and physical presence, a team of tight ends whose tactical naivete could prove fatal. Japan could beat either one, not that it matters.

Because in the other half of this bracket is the most impressive side of all to date, Brazil's. Perhaps you've heard of them.

Brazil gets punchless and artless Belgium in the second round, which is the closest thing to a bye yet devised by FIFA. England already is waiting for Brazil, and that match will paralyze both nations and attract enormous attention. The masters of the game vs. the maestros of the game. English tabloids will be in a frenzy. But it's very hard to see the English scoring enough goals to stop Brazil.

And it's near impossible to figure Japan, Sweden or Senegal standing up to Ronaldo, Ronaldinho, Rivaldo, Denilson, Edmilson, et al, in the semis.

So, Brazil vs. the Germany-Italy survivor? One thing to keep in mind: No European side ever has won a World Cup outside of Europe. And we don't think it starts now.

The Western Hemisphere's players are better adapted to playing in exotic conditions. Like, say, Asia. Most of the New Worlders already work in Europe with club teams, so they know what it's like to play big games far from home. The Euros meanwhile, seem quaintly parochial when they leave their little continent.

We see Brazil winning it all, its fifth World Cup. Colorful coach Luiz Felipe Scolari, ``Big Phil'' as he's known, leading them to the championship, Ronaldo making up for his bizarre collapse before the '98 final with a goal. Or three.

This has been odd. It's been fun. But World Cup history shows us that one quirky semifinalist is the quota, and that's one more quirky team that makes the finals. When it gets to the end, look for the teams with pedigrees. And none is nobler than Brazil's.

All the same, we'll let them play the games. A tournament of surprises might have a half-dozen still waiting.

CAPTION(S):

photo

Photo:

Brazil's Junior, left, celebrating with his teammates, might celebrate more in a couple of weeks.

Lawrence Jackson/Associated Press