BOX OFFICE BATTLE BEGINS CAN 'SCOOBY' SQUASH 'SPIDER-MAN'?

Byline: Greg Hernandez Staff Writer

The summer box office battle ratchets up several notches today with rival studios unloading their heavy artillery onto the screens of the nation's megaplexes.

A diverse trio of new wide releases - ``Windtalkers,'' ``Scooby-Doo'' and ``The Bourne Identity'' - will be slugging it out for supremacy, but must also dethrone the current top film ``Sum of All Fears'' and contend with the still-potent blockbusters ``Spider-Man'' and ``Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones.''

``I think this weekend we will have one of those newcomers enter the chart as the number one movie,'' said Paul Dergarabedian, president of the box office tracking firm Exhibitor Relations. `'But it's hard to predict which of the three is going to really do it.''

Robert Bucksbaum, president of the box office research firm Reel Source, is strongly bullish on the prospects of Warner Bros.' ``Scooby-Doo,'' a live-action adaptation of the classic Saturday morning cartoon series that debuts in 3,447 theaters.

``I think it's a no-brainer that this movie is not just number one but will blow away the competition,'' predicted Bucksbaum, whose company advises movie theater owners on the box office prospects of upcoming releases.

Although ``Scooby-Doo'' has received mixed reviews from critics, Bucksbaum believes its family appeal could translate into a robust $40 million-plus opening.

```Scooby-Doo' will have the market to itself,'' he said. ``The other new releases have to compete with the movies already in the top five like `Sum of All Fears.' All these movies are so similar that they will be cannibalizing each other.''

For added insurance, Warner Bros. will premiere the trailer for the upcoming fall release ``Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets'' with this weekend's showing of ``Scooby-Doo.''

The trailer strategy has had mixed results in the past. But most recently, 20th Century Fox previewed the trailer for ``Clones'' with its animated film ``Ice Age,'' which went on to enjoy an opening weekend gross of $46.3 million, a March record.

But also looking to claim its share of audience this weekend is MGM's highly anticipated World War II action picture, ``Windtalkers'' which stars Nicolas Cage and was directed by John Woo. The film opens in 2,898 theaters.

The stakes are high for MGM, which has suffered from a string of box office failures this year and postponed the fall release of ``Windtalkers'' after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. Since then, war-themed films have had mixed results, from big hits like Sony's ``Black Hawk Down'' to flops like MGM's ``Hart's War.''

``It's such a good movie, but it's a difficult sell,'' Bucksbaum said of `Windtalkers.' ``There's still a lot of interest in war movies out there, but it will have a tough time competing.''

Universal Pictures' is bowing ``The Bourne Identity'' in 2,636 locations and is counting on star Matt Damon's large female fan base to turn out. The film is being marketed as cooler and edgier than a traditional thriller aimed at the older teen, 20s and 30s crowds.

The picture marks director Doug Liman's (`Swingers') first major studio movie, and Damon has been promoting the film tirelessly for the past two weeks in a barnstorming cross-country series of appearances.

With a trio of new movies and several strong holdovers from the past two weeks, this weekend will test the staying power of ``Spider-Man'' and ``Clones.''

``The competition is increasing, and ultimately, audiences have a lot of different choices,'' Dergarabedian said. ``There is sort of a changing of the guard as the summer season progresses, and you are going to see the big two films start to move down the chart.''

But ``Spider-Man'' distributor Columbia Pictures believes that the web slinger still has some life in him even though the film had grossed $370.4 million as of last weekend.

``It's a week-to-week battle from here on in,'' said Jeff Blake, Columbia's president of worldwide distribution and marketing. ``We keep exceeding expectations a little bit each week. There's a lot of product coming, but we are beating some of the new product, if not the first week then the second week. It certainly is being supported by a lot of repeat business.''

Both Bucksbaum and Dergarabedian believe that Warner Bros.' ``Divine Secrets of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood,'' which debuted at a strong No. 2 last weekend with a $16.2 million gross, will continue to thrive as a definite alternative to testosterone-driven fare and family movies.

``'Ya-Ya' has an older female audience, and they don't run out opening weekend,'' Dergarabedian said. ``I think that film will benefit because none of the newcomers are similar. It has a pretty good shot at continuing to capitalize on its uniqueness.''