BOWLS SCENARIO A MESS : PAC-10 PARTICIPANTS TO SHAKE OUT SOON.

Byline: Jon Wilner

Two of the most important games in the Pacific-10 this week don't involve conference teams. But as we'll see, the outcome of Texas-Kansas and Oklahoma-Texas A&M has as much impact on the Pac-10's postseason fate as the Oregon-Cal and UCLA-Arizona matchups.

With two weeks left in the season, only Oregon State has been mathematically eliminated from bowl contention.

Arizona State, Washington and California have attained the six wins necessary for invitations.

Washington State, Stanford, Arizona, USC, UCLA and, yes, Oregon have a chance. In fact, under one scenario, Oregon could become the lone bowl team of that group. (USC, which plays 12 games, must finish 7-5 for bowl eligibility.)

ASU has secured its first Rose Bowl berth in 10 years and is expected to meet Ohio State in Pasadena. (The Buckeyes' coach, John Cooper, was ASU's general in 1986.)

That leaves up to eight teams fighting for at least three and possibly five bowl berths: The Cotton/Holiday, Sun and Aloha, in that order, are contractually obligated to the Pac-10.

The Independence, in Shreveport, La., has an at-large position but is said to covet unbeaten Army.

The Copper must take the No. 6 team from the Big 12 - if there are six available. Nebraska, Colorado and Kansas State are bowl-eligible. Texas, Texas A&M and Texas Tech have five wins each; Kansas, four. If the conference can't fill the Copper spot, the Tucson-based bowl might gobble up a Pac-10 entry.

Here's a closer look at the muddled bowl picture, excluding ASU:

Washington: Assuming a victory Saturday over San Jose State, the Huskies will have at least eight wins and be the likely choice for the Cotton (Pac-10/WAC vs. Big 12) or Holiday (Pac-10/WAC vs. Big 12) slot.

The potential glitch in the Cotton Bowl's grand plan is the Dec. 7 Western Athletic Conference title game. If the Cotton waits for a (potentially) 13-1 Brigham Young team and the Cougars were to lose, Washington would appear a second choice.

Next weekend, the Cotton might invite Washington, which beat BYU soundly this year and always travels well.

Cal: Steve Mariucci's gang (6-3 overall, 3-3 Pac-10) plays at Oregon this week and hosts Stanford next. But the bowl-selection procedures might send a seven-win Cal team to the Aloha and someone else (with six wins) to the Sun.

Here's how: After the Rose and Cotton/Holiday select, the Sun must invite the highest-placed team remaining. (If two or more teams are tied, the bowl has its choice.)

A likely scenario has Cal splitting its final two - and finishing 4-4 in league play - and either Stanford or UCLA winning out to finish third at 5-3.

Washington State: The Cougars, who usually struggle in November, have the toughest road to the postseason with games at Stanford and against Washington.

Washington State (5-4, 3-3) must win at least one and then hope they're the fourth and final bowl-eligible team. If the Aloha or Copper has to choose from the Cougars, Stanford, USC or UCLA, then guess who's home for the holidays. The Pullman television market.

Stanford: Oregon State's only Pac-10 victim is also the hottest team among the second-tier contenders, with victories over both L.A. schools this month.

Stanford must defeat Washington State and Cal to reach the six-win plateau, and it's off to the Aloha or, perhaps, Copper.

Arizona: The Wildcats' only hope is to beat UCLA and ASU, and the momentum gained from those victories probably catapults Arizona into the postseason picture. If the Copper has an open berth, the hometown team would fit perfectly.

USC: No confusion here. The Trojans must beat UCLA and Notre Dame for bowl eligibility.

In these days of Pac-10 mediocrity, no seven-win USC team sits home for the holidays. The conference will find John Robinson a spot, whether it's in Shreveport, Tucson or Honolulu.

UCLA: The L.A. television market probably gets the Bruins into a bowl - if they defeat Arizona and USC. (No small order, considering they've lost three straight in Tucson by an average score of 33-11.)

Two more wins mean a 5-3 conference finish for UCLA. If Cal and Stanford each lose one, the Bruins pack for El Paso. If Cal or Stanford wins out, then the Aloha, which doesn't want the same team two straight years, might have no choice.

Around the Pac-10: Arizona State coach Bruce Snyder has not cut his hair since August and won't do so until after the Rose Bowl. ``I may need a ponytail,'' he quipped. . . .

Oregon State aims for its second victory of the season, against coach Jerry Pettibone's former school, Northern Illinois. . . .

Cal quarterback Pat Barnes is four touchdown passes short of the single-season league record (29), held by former Sun Devil Mike Pagel. Considering he's facing the Oregon defense this week, Barnes might tie the mark in the first quarter. . . .

Washington has clinched its 20th consecutive winning season. Only Nebraska, with 34, has a longer streak of success. . . .

Home teams are 21-11 in conference play. . . .

In four games as starter, ASU tailback Terry Battle has 619 yards rushing and 10 touchdowns.

Top Ten

1. Florida (9-0)

No surprise that the Gators finally struggled. But Vanderbilt? South Carolina, next up, better be ready.

2. Ohio State (9-0)

Last thing Buckeyes needed was a Michigan loss; now Wolverines guaranteed to win in Columbus.

3. Florida State (8-0)

'Noles take an ACC break with pesky Southern Miss. Gators game is closing fast.

4. Arizona State (10-0)

Devils have two weeks to gloat and to get ready for Arizona. Dangerous situation.

5. Nebraska (8-1)

If Iowa State's Troy Davis gets 200 yards on Huskers Saturday, he deserves the Heisman.

6. Colorado (8-1)

Nine down, one to go (Kansas State) before Team Neuheisel takes its show to Lincoln.

7. Alabama (8-1)

News flash: Tide tailback Shaun Alexander hung in effigy in Baton Rouge.

8. North Carolina (8-1)

Showdown at Virginia has bowl alliance implications for Tar Heels.

9. Kansas State (8-1)

Only blemish was blowout by Nebraska, and there's no shame in that.

10. Washington (7-2)

Oregon State last week. San Jose State this week. Is that any way to prep for Wazu?

Five more to watch: Tennessee (6-2), Michigan (7-2), Penn State (8-2), Louisiana State (6-2), Notre Dame (6-2).

Player Watch:

Brigham Young receiver James Dye. The 5-foot-9 senior from Crenshaw High School, who played defensive back last year, has 14 catches this season. But his specialty is returning punts. He's second in the nation with an 18.3- yard average. He has four touchdown returns in his career, tying the BYU school record.

Best bet:

No. 9 Kansas State at No. 6 Colorado. First, the details: Colorado and Nebraska are unbeaten in Big 12 play; Kansas State has one loss. Colorado plays at Nebraska in two weeks. Kansas State hasn't beaten the Buffaloes since 1984.

Now, the real story: Colorado Sports Information Director Dave Plati is close friends with Jimmy Buffet's personal trainer. In September, Plati called in a favor and arranged for coach Rick Neuheisel, a huge Buffet fan, to sing and play guitar with the Margarita Man himself onstage at an Oct. 1 concert outside Denver.

Why is that not surprising?

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Box: TOP 10 (see text)