BOUNCEBACK; Recession 'over' as firms become more confident.

Byline: GRAHAM HISCOTT

THE UK recession could soon be over, say a group of experts.

They forecast that economic output will be up 0.5% by the end of next month.

At the same time, business confidence in this quarter has jumped from minus 28.2 to plus 4.8, the largest rise since 2003.

The forecast comes from the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales - based on their Business Confidence Monitor. It follows a worse-thanexpected 0.8% decline in the economy between April and June, marking the UK's fifth quarter of recession.

ICAEW boss Michael Izza said: "This quarter's BCM suggests that the UK recession is at an end.

"While there is no doubt the UK economy is on its way to recovery, we shouldn't underestimate the challenges ahead for businesses." The survey found businesses expected a rise in 13 out of 14 key areas in the next year, compared to earlier in 2009 when most were expected to contract.

Some 41% of senior businessmen were more confident about economic prospects in the next year.

But only 6% were much more confident, indicating a continued level of caution over the speed of recovery. The IT sector was most optimistic, followed by banking, finance and insurance.

The survey found "a remarkable upturn" in confidence in the banking sector in particular, given the impact of the financial crisis on most institutions.

Positive signs on the housing market have also helped boost optimism for property firms.

Least confident were health and education professionals amid fears of cuts.

Across Britain, Wales was most upbeat followed by Scotland and north England. London and the South East showed least optimism.

Voice of Mirror: Page 10

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