BOOZY 'VEGAS' HAS OSCAR ODDS\Nomination field still wide open.

Byline: Bob Strauss Daily News Film Critic

The 1995 Oscar derby is still anybody's horse race.

After all, how far can petite pigs and stumbling boozehounds run?

"Babe" and "Leaving Las Vegas" have gotten incredibly far already. Evidently addled by the overwhelming mediocrity of 1995's movie offerings, critics were abnormally impressed by talking animals and alcoholic wish fulfillment to the exclusion of just about everything else. However much merit these two pictures possess - and they are among the year's best - 1995 did produce other, equally worthwhile work, some of which was even about interesting people who weren't drinking themselves to death.

Despite the constricted scope of the opening critical rounds, the next three months of Academy Award jockeying should be a pretty good free-for-all. That's the one advantage of an off movie year: Without a "Forrest Gump," "Schindler's List" or "Dances With Wolves" dominating the field, the competition should be full of twists and surprises. And even more shameless self-promoting than usual.

In other words, the 1995 Oscar race should be more entertaining than most of last year's movies.

To begin with, there are only three sure bets for Best Picture nominations. "Vegas" has earned so much critical praise - Best Picture from the New York and L.A. groups, mention on virtually everybody's top 10 list, Nicolas Cage's acing of all the Best Actor awards - it should easily overcome conservative voters' distaste for this unrepentant bender of a movie.

Academy Nominating Rule No. 1: As with the recent likes of "Pulp Fiction" and "The Piano," even if the voting members don't like a challenging movie, if it's overpraised enough they'll opt for it anyway.

"Apollo 13," on the other hand, is everything "Vegas" is not. It's conventionally heroic, technically dazzling, a big hit and, definitely, very sober. It also stars that nice Tom Hanks instead of that disturbing Nicolas Cage.

Academy Nominating Rule No. 2: Popularity matters. While the voters reject screechfests like "Batman Forever," they'll always sniff out the biggest moneymakers that offer the least whiff of artistic legitimacy. All Best Picture winners since 1987's "The Last Emperor" have had nine-figure grosses or darn close to it.

"Sense and Sensibility" is the third likely Best Picture nominee. It's English, literate and not at all upsetting - which also makes it hard to get real excited about. "Sense's" Oscar fortunes will be greatly determined by how many of its leading six Golden Globe nominations are turned into awards come Jan. 21.

There will probably be one "look what's talking" nominee this year. But I'd bet it's the blockbuster "Toy Story" rather than the modest sleeper hit "Babe." The universally praised, computer-animated comedy will be the biggest-grossing '95 release by the time Oscar nominations are announced on Feb. 13. "Toy" also has the technical dazzle and Tom Hanks things going for it.

As for that coveted fifth Best Picture spot, the possibilities are spread across a wide assortment of relatively accomplished movies that may be deemed too violent ("Seven," "Casino," "Braveheart," "Heat"), too lightweight ("The American President," "Get Shorty," "A Little Princess"), too esoteric ("Dead Man Walking," "The Postman," "Richard III"), made out of a dopey book ("Bridges of Madison County") or made by Oliver Stone ("Nixon").

If it finds a bit more of an audience and keeps the political types debating, my money's on "Nixon."

Speaking of drinking and landslides, the only slam dunk Oscar winner we can predict right now is Cage for Best Actor. No one that's won every critics group's awards in recent years has failed to also win the equivalent Oscar.

Besides, Cage's really is the most imaginative and organic performance of the year. Anthony Hopkins' Nixon runs a close second and should easily earn him a nomination, too. Tom Hanks is the other sure shot - for "Apollo," not "Toy Story" - although, come March 25's Oscar ceremonies, the voters are likely to figure enough already for the back-to-back winner.

If the other two Best Actor slots go to the deserving, they will be John Travolta for his confident "Get Shorty" star turn and Sean Penn for his plausible effort to humanize the despicable in "Dead Man Walking." Still, just about any guy who starred in a movie last year has a chance, with sensitive seniors ("Seven's" Morgan Freeman, "Madison County's" Clint Eastwood) or mobster movie men (half the working members of the Screen Actors Guild) looking the most likely.

For the first time in years, the Best Actress category offers a rich slate of possibilities. "Vegas' " Elisabeth Shue and "Sense's" Emma Thompson have enough critical steam to power them into Oscar contention. Hot on their heels are, well, just about every woman who starred in a movie last year.

I'd recommend Nicole Kidman for her image-altering, "To Die For" psycho-celeb and Meryl Streep's lovestruck "Madison County" farm wife. If Cage's binge wasn't enough for them, academy voters can order self-destructive drunks played by Sharon Stone in "Casino" and Jennifer Jason Leigh in "Georgia." Nobility fans have Susan Sarandon's saintly "Dead Man" nun and Michelle Pfeiffer's dedicated "Dangerous Minds" teacher to make them feel good.

The Supporting Actress match is shaping up as a two-hander between Joan Allen's perpetually piqued Pat Nixon and Mira Sorvino's bubbly, bubble-headed "Mighty Aphrodite" hooker. "Sense's" sensuous sister Kate Winslet is also a likely nominee, as are the less-deserving Kyra Sedgwick ("Something to Talk About") and Kathleen Quinlan ("Apollo"). It would not be a bad thing if the academy managed to remember Eleanor Bron's superbly slimy "A Little Princess" headmistress or, for a real kick, Famke Janssen's enjoyably insane "GoldenEye" assassin.

Supporting Actor possibilities are a little bit broader, with Kevin Spacey the surest contender, probably for "The Usual Suspects" of his four '95 releases. Ed Harris' dedicated mission controller seems a pretty natural nominee, too, as do fellow "Apollo" crewmen Kevin Bacon, Bill Paxton and Gary Sinise.

A bunch of "Nixon" cronies deserve consideration: James Woods, Powers Boothe, Paul Sorvino and on down the list. And Don Cheadle, remembered by two critics groups for the otherwise quickly forgotten "Devil in a Blue Dress," also has a good chance.

Best Director nominees usually parallel the Best Picture slate with one exception. That means "Apollo's" Ron Howard, "Vegas' " Mike Figgis, "Sense's" Ang Lee and "Nixon's" Oliver Stone can probably rest easy. The toy or pig movie guy gets bumped for either "Madison's" Eastwood, "Braveheart's" Mel Gibson or "President's" Rob Reiner.

In the writing categories, Emma Thompson may have the Adapted Screenplay Oscar sewn up for "Sense," especially since her stiffest competition, Richard La Gravenese, conceivably will be spread thin between his three fine adaptations of "Madison County," "Little Princess" and "Unstrung Heroes."

The vast majority of last year's decent movies were based on some previously existing material - even "Clueless" was a loose interpretation of Jane Austen's "Emma." This is good news for the writers of the two problematic presidential pictures, as well as for "Heat's" Michael Mann. But Original Screenplay would also be a good category in which to mention the unexpectedly witty "Toy Story" and an intriguing smaller movie like "Smoke" or "Safe."

Of course, all these calculations could be thrown off if the Golden Globe voters go for, say, "Sabrina" or Patrick Swayze in "To Wong Foo." For eternally mysterious reasons, the filmmaking professionals who make up the academy tend to follow the lead of the Globes' unknown foreign journalists more often than they do American critics' judgment.

Of course, in a year when all we're suggesting are drunks and pigs, you can't blame the academy for wanting other choices.

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Photo (1--Cover--Color) Hey, 'Babe' Will this little piggy go to the Oscars? (2) The low-budget, alcohol-fueled "Leaving Las Vegas," starring Nicolas Cage and Elisabeth Shue, likely will garner an Academy Award nomination for Best Picture, with Cage a shoe-in for Best Actor. (3) "The Bridges of Madison County," which has a shot at Best Picture, could earn acting nominations for Meryl Streep and Clint Eastwood, with the film's leading man also a favorite for Best Director. (4) Tom Hanks, left, could "three-peat" for his starring role in "Apollo 13," with crewmen Bill Paxton, center, Kevin Bacon and Gary Sinise (not pictured) favorites for Best Supporting Actor nods. (5) Emma Thompson's work on the Jane Austen classic "Sense and Sensibility" makes her the overwhelming favorite for the Adapted Screenplay Oscar, with a nomination also likely for her starring role. (6) Nicole Kidman's role as a murderous TV anchor in "To Die For" may earn her a Best Actress nomination in a crowded field. (7) John Travolta's Miami loan shark-turned-producer in "Get Shorty" may give the comeback king a third shot at winning his first Oscar. (8) With the box-office numbers academy members like, "Toy Story" also has the advantage of its groundbreaking computer animation technology - and the voice of Oscar favorite Tom Hanks. (9) Anthony Hopkins should easily earn a Best Actor nomination for "Nixon," but the film directed by Oliver Stone may be crowded out of the race for Best Picture unless business picks up in theaters. (10) Eleanor Bron's slimy headmistress in "A Little Princess" is Best Supporting Actress material.