BONDS DOESN'T HAVE IT IN HIM TO HIT 70.

Byline: JOE HAAKENSON

SEATTLE - So Barry Bonds has 38 home runs, more than anyone in baseball history before the All-Star break.

Going into Saturday's game, he was on a pace for 84 homers. Eighty-four? Do we really believe Bonds will maintain this zealous pace and hit 84?

No. Not even 70.

Bonds is hot now, but history shows players that hit a lot of home runs early taper off late in the season. Even when Mark McGwire hit 70, he hit more before the break (37) than after it (33).

Reggie Jackson hit 37 before the break in 1969 and only 10 after. Ken Griffey Jr. had 32 by the end of June in 1994 but hit eight the rest of the way.

Last season, when Bonds hit a career-high 49 homers, he hit 28 by the end of June and 21 in the final half of the season.

Only McGwire seemed capable of maintaining his endurance late in the season. He hit 15 home runs in September 1998, more than any other month that season except May (16). He hit two on the final day of the season to reach 70.

``Mark is so much stronger than I am,'' Bonds told the San Francisco Chronicle earlier this week. ``The difference is, even when Mark is tired the ball goes 520 feet. When I'm tired, or a normal guy is tired, it goes 230 feet. Mark hits the ball out of the park and we hit it to the shortstop.

``If someone was as big and strong as he was, I'd probably say that person has a chance,'' Bonds added. ``Mark can miss a ball and hit a home run. We can't miss a ball and hit a home run.''

The physical toll of the long season is not the only thing working against Bonds. There's also the test of how a player performs under intense scrutiny and pressure.

McGwire thrived under the spotlight. With everyone watching, waiting and anticipating a home run, he delivered.

Bonds under pressure and the spotlight?

Bonds has played 27 playoff games in his career and has two homers in 97 at-bats. His career playoff batting average is .196.

One thing Bonds has working for him is how he deals with the media. Quite simply, he doesn't. Bonds will talk on occasion, particularly to the big TV networks, but he won't think twice about saying no. He has no conscience when it comes to dealing with the media, so it won't be a source of stress.

After Bonds hit his 34th homer against the Angels recently, a radio reporter returned from the Giants' clubhouse and was asked if Bonds talked.

``He talked,'' the radio reporter said. ``But he didn't say anything.''

And there is the idea that if the Giants are in a pennant race, it will work against Bonds. McGwire's Cardinals were out of the race in 1998 and pitchers were more likely to pitch to him. If the Giants are contending, pitchers more likely are going to pitch around Bonds.

``There are a lot of teams in that division (NL West) that are in contention, and the Giants figure to be one of them,'' Angels manager Mike Scioscia said. ``If that happens, the pitches you're seeing might deteriorate, he might not get many good pitches to hit. I think he might run into some of that in September.''

Bonds also needs help from his teammates, particularly Jeff Kent, who hits in the cleanup spot behind Bonds. Last season, when he hit his 49 homers, Bonds was protected by Kent, who won the National League MVP award by hitting .334 with 33 homers and 125 RBI.

Pitchers began this year respecting Kent based on last year's performance. But pitchers might pitch around Bonds even more and take their chances with Kent as the season progresses because Kent is not having nearly as good a season this year. He's hitting .279 and has only nine home runs.

Even Bonds himself has his doubts about his chances to hit 70.

``Not a chance,'' Bonds said. ``The gut feeling in my heart: I don't think so. ... I'm not Mark McGwire. I'm just not that powerful a hitter.''