BOEING MAY CUT 31,000 PEOPLE LAYOFFS PORTEND FULL RECESSION.

Boeing is planning to lay off 20 percent to 30 percent of its commercial airline work force - roughly 31,000 people - the most stunning in a series of economic setbacks resulting from last week's terrorist attacks.

Car sales, home sales, tourism, business travel and other major parts of the economy suddenly look very vulnerable, and many economists no longer doubt that the country will suffer a recession this year.

``The horror of the events of last week literally stopped the economy in its tracks,'' said David Jones, chief economist at Aubrey G. Lanston & Co. in New York. ``There is no question that this terrorist event will kick us over into a recession.''

A congressional source, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said Boeing would announce the layoffs today.

The company would not be announcing specific locations for the layoffs, but was telling lawmakers they are expected to be implemented by early 2002.

One Boeing spokesman would not comment Tuesday night; another one had no knowledge of the pending cuts.

``I haven't heard anything about this,'' said Dan Beck, a spokesman for space shuttle contractor Boeing Rocketdyne in Canoga Park.

He speculated that any jobs cuts would come on the airplane side of the business.

Washington Gov. Gary Locke said Boeing officials told him early Tuesday the layoffs in his state could begin quickly.

``It is our understanding that there will be 20,000 workers laid off over the next couple of years, but they have not decided how many will be gone by the end of the year,'' said Dana Middleton, Locke's press secretary. ``But they have indicated they would begin immediately with layoffs.''

Roughly 93,000 people work for Boeing's commercial airline sector, much of which is centered around the company's former headquarters in Seattle. Boeing's corporate headquarters is now in Chicago.

The White House and Congress are considering a federal aid package for the airline industry to help it recover from last week's attacks.

The industry has asked for $24 billion. The House floated a $15 billion relief plan last Friday that could include $2.5 billion in immediate grants and $12.5 billion in loans and credits.

The disruption in air travel has been felt at many tourist destinations, and the tourism industry is bracing for even bigger losses, especially at far-off destinations such as Hawaii.

Joel Prakken, chief economist at Macroeconomic Forecasters in St. Louis, said the hit to the economy in property damage and lost lives from last week's suicide hijackings will dwarf such recent natural disasters as Hurricane Andrew in 1992, which killed 61 people and resulted in $27 billion in property damage.

Analysts said losses among airlines and the insurance industry will be magnified throughout the economy as people cut back on spending, especially for big-ticket items such as homes and autos.

Consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of economic activity in the $10 trillion U.S. economy, has been all that kept the country out of a downturn for the past year.

Paul Taylor, chief economist for the National Automobile Dealers Association, said he was cutting his sales estimates for the rest of this year by 100,000 vehicles.

Even before the destruction at the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, consumers had grown more wary, reflecting a sharp jump in unemployment. The jobless rate surged in August to 4.9 percent.