BLOCKBLASTER! `PHANTOM' BREAKS OPENING DAY RECORD.

Byline: Dave McNary Daily News Staff Writer

Movie industry analysts didn't need to wait for today's 12:01 a.m. showings of ``Star Wars: Episode 1 - The Phantom Menace'' to declare it the biggest opening ever, by far.

Analysts predicted Tuesday that ``Phantom Menace'' will generate more than $40 million in gross ticket revenue today, and might come close to doubling the previous one-day record of $26.1 million set by ``The Lost World: Jurassic Park'' two years ago.

``It's safe to say that it will do $42 million to $45 million on the first day,'' said Robert Bucksbaum, president of the Reel Source forecasting service. ``That's pretty safe to predict because we've been hearing reports the advance sales were between $25 million and $30 million for the first week.''

Added Barry Hyman, an analyst with Ehrenkrantz King Nussbaum: ``I could see a first-day total of over $40 million as quite possible.''

The prequel was slated to open at about 2,950 theaters, most of which scheduled 12:01 a.m. showings. Bucksbaum's calculations are based on averages of 500 seats per theater, a $4.95 average admission price, seven showings per screen and most of the shows selling out.

``There are clearly a lot of people who are taking the day off to see it and a lot of kids who are not going to go to school,'' Bucksbaum said.

Many of the 12:01 a.m. shows in the San Fernando and Santa Clarita valleys were sold out, along with most of tonight's early evening screenings. As of Tuesday afternoon, some 10 p.m. shows also were sold out, including those at Mann's Chinese and the Universal City Cineplex. Still, tickets are available for midday shows today.

The records should continue to be set through the first week of the film, breaking the $104.9 million mark set by ``Lost World.'' Bucksbaum believes ``Phantom Menace'' will have hit $130 million after the first five days, while Hyman forecasts a five-day domestic gross of $100 million to $130 million.

The trackers agree that the core audience of adolescent boys and young adult males will see the movie again and again during the first few weeks.

Kevin Skislock of Laguna Research Partners believes the final domestic take will beat the $461 million taken in by the original ``Star Wars,'' which includes $140 million from the 1997 re-release.

`` `The Phantom Menace' is going to do exceptionally well because everyone wants to take their own first look and make their own judgment in the first week or two,'' Skislock said. ``I think it has a very good shot at breaking the `Star Wars' domestic record because we now have a multigenerational audience.''

Others aren't so certain, given less-than-stellar reviews and the chance that some moviegoers may have been turned off by months of hype. Most forecasts have been scaled back recently, placing ``Phantom Menace'' between $300 million to $450 million - spectacular, since that threshold has been crossed by only eight films, but far short of ``Titanic's'' $601 million record.

``I think it will do $300 million to $350 million, which is very impressive,'' Hyman said. ``There will be millions of kids 10 to 15 who will go see it more than once but they won't be paying the full price. (But) it will completely dominate the first couple of weekends.''

Bucksbaum has downgraded his forecast from $475 million to $410 million to a range of $375 million to $410 million, citing the tendency of blockbusters opening in late May to fade quickly. In the past three years, ``Mission: Impossible,'' ``The Lost World'' and ``Godzilla'' all opened strongly, then dropped more than 50 percent in their second weekends.

Those movies opened in the week before Memorial Day weekend, however. By opening today, ``Phantom Menace'' essentially gets two long weekends - including next weekend's three-day Memorial Day weekend - with very little competition from the other major studios.

Still, Bucksbaum said that by mid-June, the ``Phantom Menace'' box office will be waning, especially in the face of New Line's ``Austin Powers: the Spy Who Shagged Me,'' which will open June 11, and Warner Bros.' ``Wild Wild West,'' which will open June 30.

``Everyone who wants to see `Phantom Menace' will see it in the first five days,'' Bucksbaum said. ``The core audience wants to see it now but the question is, are they going to like it enough to see it over and over and over? The people in the lines say they will but they're also looking forward to seeing the other movies when they come out.''

Warner Bros., in a show of confidence that ``Phantom Menace'' will have stopped dominating once it's been out for a month, recently announced it was moving ``Wild Wild West'' up two days so it will open on a Wednesday at about 3,000 theaters. Bucksbaum believes the Will Smith vehicle will be the summer's No. 2 film at $185 million, followed by ``Austin Powers'' at $160 million.

20th Century Fox and George Lucas originally demanded that theaters book ``Phantom Menace'' for at least eight weeks in their largest auditoriums but Bucksbaum said several chains have been able to limit the runs to a month due to the strength of upcoming product, including Universal's ``Notting Hill'' on May 28, Disney's ``Tarzan'' and Paramount's ``General's Daughter'' on June 18, Sony's ``Big Daddy'' on June 25 and Paramount's ``South Park'' on June 30.

However, Fox and Lucas stuck to their demand that ``Phantom Menace'' run only in theaters with digital sound, Bucksbaum said.

Beyond the near future, Hyman believes ``Phantom Menace'' can take in $500 million to $550 million in overseas markets, where poor reviews have less effect. Preproduction is expected to begin later this year for ``Episode 2,'' to be released in 2002, and Lucas hopes to release ``Episode 3'' in 2005.

`` `Phantom Menace' is really the first of a triad that could bring in $2 billion globally,'' Hyman said. ``It's going to make Lucas even more wealthy.''