BIG THREE CHAINS WILL GO ALL OUT IN EFFORT TO WIN SHOPPERS BACK.

Byline: Nicholas Grudin Staff Writer

Supermarket shoppers can expect a ``sale blitz'' once the 4 1/2-month grocery clerks' strike officially ends as Ralphs, Vons and Albertsons try to regain their customers who defected in the face of picket lines, grocery industry analysts and executives said.

The strike and lockout devastated the incomes of workers and the revenue of the three largest supermarket chains in Southern California as consumers turned to wholesalers, ethnic markets and specialty stores in droves, developing new shopping patterns.

``The number of customers they get back will depend on the ferocity of their marketing campaigns,'' said Andrew Wolf, an industry analyst for BB&T Capital Markets in Virginia.

Already, advertising mailers from the chains this week offered ``prices (that) are kind of hot,'' such as iceberg lettuce and cans of tuna for as low as 29 cents.

Albertsons has launched a campaign to promote a new ``Preferred Savings Card'' to compete with club cards from Ralphs and Vons.

``The labor dispute has been tough on everyone. But one thing we know for sure - the day it's over, you're going to save like never before,'' reads one Albertsons advertisement.

Industry experts and competitors that benefited from the strike said the major chains will never recover all their customers.

``I will be absolutely astounded if they are able to recover 90 percent of their customers,'' said Ross Roeder, chief executive of Smart & Final, a chain that has seen sales rise steadily since the strike began. ``People were already drifting away and this gave all of us a chance to focus on those people.''

Since the strike began Oct. 11, the grocery stores have lost about $2 billion in sales, and alternative grocers like Trader Joe's, Gelson's, Whole Foods, Costco and Smart & Final have reaped the benefit.

Those stores' ability to retain their new customers will be another major factor in the big three chains' recovery.

``People have gotten used to different shopping patterns and they've frequented Costco, Whole Foods, and Trader Joe's, which are great places to shop,'' Wolf said. ``These guys have definitely gained a lot of permanent market share.''

Nicholas Grudin, [phone]

nicholas.grudin(at)dailynews.com

THE SUPERMARKET STRIKE TIMELINE

--2003

Oct. 5: Contract between Southern California's three largest grocery chains and their 70,000 union employees expires.

Oct. 8: United Food and Commercial Workers members begin strike authorization vote.

Oct. 10: The UFCW announces that 97 percent of its workers approved striking, with a majority of the membership casting ballots.

Oct. 10: A federal mediator meets with supermarket and union officials to avoid a work stoppage; discussions last through midnight, but no progress is made.

Oct. 11: Workers strike Vons and Pavilions stores in Southern California after a second marathon day of negotiations proves fruitless.

Oct. 12: Albertsons and Ralphs lock out their workers in a show of solidarity by the companies; in all, 859 stores are affected between the Mexican border and Santa Barbara.

Oct. 18: The first weekend of the strike clarifies its extreme impact on supermarket business, as many Los Angeles grocery stores are completely deserted.

Oct. 22: A union actuary spells out the union's take on the effects of the proposed cuts to medical benefits; supermarkets say the cost to employees will be $5 to $15 weekly, whereas the union actuary says the true cost will be closer to $100 per week.

Oct. 28: Supermarket pharmacists, who are covered by a separate contract, stop honoring the picket lines and return to work.

Oct. 30: AFL-CIO President John Sweeney announces the creation of a strike fund called ``Hold the Line for Health Care'' to back the UFCW strike in Southern California.

Oct. 31: The UFCW announces that it will remove picket lines from Ralphs in order to ease the inconvenience of the strike on the public - which was also coping with the wildfires and the MTA strike - and focus more pressure on Vons and Albertsons.

Oct. 31: A parallel grocery strike in St. Louis is resolved through federal mediation after 25 days of stoppage.

Nov. 10: Federally mediated negotiations resume with Peter J. Hurtgen, director of the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service.

Nov. 12: After a day and a half of mediation, Hurtgen declares a recess.

Nov. 22: Mediation resumes in hopes of ending the strike before Thanksgiving, one of the busiest shopping seasons of the year, but again recesses without a resolution.

Nov. 25: The Teamsters truckers and warehouse workers agree to honor picket lines at the supermarkets' nine regional distribution centers, cutting off the supply chains just days before Thanksgiving.

Dec. 1: Attorney General Bill Lockyer announces a probe of a revenue- sharing pact by the supermarket chains to blunt losses. Negotiations resume.

Dec. 5: Albertsons releases third-quarter earnings report, revealing $119 million in losses over the first 19 days of the strike; third-quarter profits dropped 51 percent from the same period the previous year.

Dec. 7: After six days of mediation, Hurtgen calls another recess without making any headway on the major issues.

Dec. 9: A grocery store strike between Ralphs' parent company, Kroger Co., and 3,300 union employees in West Virginia, Ohio and Kentucky is settled.

Dec. 16: Hundreds of labor leaders from across the nation, including head of the AFL-CIO Sweeney, rally in Century City and declare that the strike is going national; the union's strike fund gathers more than $4 million in donations.

Dec. 19: Another round of negotiations breaks down after the companies reject a union contract proposal.

--2004

Jan. 11: Four days of secret negotiations in San Francisco break down.

Jan. 21: CalPERS, the state retirement fund with more than $75 million invested in Safeway, pressures the chain to end the strike.

Jan. 15: UFCW International leaders secretly meet with company executives in Denver for yet another fruitless discussion.

Jan. 16: Some, but not all, UFCW locals send pickets back to select Ralphs stores, demonstrating that the seven Southern California locals lack a uniform strategy.

Jan. 19: Workers mark the 100th day of the strike by marching in the annual Martin Luther King Jr. Day parade.

Jan. 20: The AFL-CIO calls for its membership across the nation to commence a broader effort against the supermarkets. Longshoremen contribute $155,000 to the strike fund.

Jan. 27: Religious leaders and striking workers embark on a ``pilgrimage'' to Safeway CEO Steve Burd's house in the San Francisco Bay Area. Los Angeles Cardinal Roger Mahony sends a letter calling for Burd to settle the dispute quickly.

Jan. 30: Attorney General Bill Lockyer announces he will sue the grocery stores for a mutual aid pact involving all three chains and Food 4 Less, saying the pact violates federal antitrust laws.

Feb. 4: UFCW leaders propose binding arbitration to end the strike, a move the companies quickly decline. Supermarket officials then call the federal mediator to request a resumption of negotiations. Feb. 5: Hurtgen calls on both sides to try to resume negotiations, while

union supporters rally on Wall Street to pressure investors to drop shares of the chains' stocks.

Feb. 10: Union leaders and company officials meet with Hurtgen at a secret location for the first formal talks in nearly two months.

Feb. 12: Safeway Inc. reports $696 million in fourth-quarter losses, attributing more than $100 million to the strike. Analysts shrug off the losses, while unions latch on.

Feb. 26: Negotiators announce a tentative contract settlement.

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THE SUPERMARKET STRIKE TIMELINE (see text)