BIG PROMISES.

Can Bush deliver? A split Congress may mean heavy weather ahead.

In the campaign, President-elect Bush made many promises to voters. But most of them require passing new laws, and Congress is divided. With the help of Brookings Institution Congress expert Sarah Binder, UPFRONT rates the new chief's chances of achieving five key goals.

TAX CUT

THE PROMISE: To cut taxes by $1.3 trillion over 10 years. "We will reduce tax rates for everyone, in every bracket."

THE ISSUE: The budget is in surplus, so there is money. But Bush also wants to spend on Social Security. Is there enough for both? Democrats doubt it; they also say Bush's tax plan favors the rich.

THE FORECAST: For the big package, cloudy. Even Republican House Speaker Dennis Hastert prefers a narrower approach--starting, say, with a smaller tax cut aimed at married couples.

SOCIAL SECURITY

THE PROMISE: "We will give you the option--your choice--to put part of your payroll taxes into sound, responsible [private] investments. This will mean a higher return on your money."

THE ISSUE: The system that provides income for elders and the disabled faces a probable financial shortfall in a couple of decades. But Democrats warn that private Investments go down as well as up.

THE FORECAST: Chilly. Social Security is "a polarizing issue," says Binder, and there's no instant crisis. "Why should Democrats give up their own views to reach across the aisle if there's no emergency?"

DEFENSE

THE PROMISE: To beef up America's military. "It starts with a billion-dollar pay raise for the men and women who wear the uniform."

THE ISSUE: Democrats say U.S. armed forces are now the envy of the world. Republicans say they're underfunded, undersupplied, and stretched too thin.

THE FORECAST: Partly sunny. It's easier to split the difference on this issue without crossing a key constituency, so Bush may well get at least half a loaf. As Binder points out, nobody likes to be against paying soldiers more.

EDUCATION

THE PROMISE: "When a school district receives federal funds to teach poor children, we expect them to learn. And if they don't, parents should get the money to make a different choice." Translation: vouchers.

THE ISSUE: Some Bush goals, such as setting tougher standards for students and giving states more flexibility in using federal funds, have bipartisan support. But teachers unions say giving public funds to private schools would damage public schools.

THE FORECAST: Partly cloudy. When Bush laid out his education plans for leaders of Congress, Rep. George Miller (D-Calif.) said "there was a lot of agreement in the room." But vouchers? Everyone knows you don't mess with the teacher.

BIPARTISANSHIP

THE PROMISE: Bush says he'll reach across party lines, as he did in Texas. "I will not attack a part of this country, because I want to lead the whole of it."

THE FORECAST: A chance of snow. "He is probably extrapolating a bit far from that Texas example," says Binder. No statehouse really prepares you for the big dome in D.C.