BETTING ON BOX OFFICE : COMBINATION OF INGREDIENTS GOES INTO SELECTION OF SCREEN HITS.Byline: Dave McNary Daily News Staff Writer If a theater chain wants to know whether a movie will be a hit or a miss, Robert Bucksbaum will tell them - for a price. And how does he know? He watches faces. Bucksbaum, head of the 8-year-old firm Reel Source, works for such movie chains as the 180-screen Mini Theaters in New England New England, name applied to the region comprising six states of the NE United States—Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut. The region is thought to have been so named by Capt. and the 92-screen B&B chain, which is based in Missouri and also has movie houses in Kansas and Oklahoma. ``I'm looking for Looking for In the context of general equities, this describing a buy interest in which a dealer is asked to offer stock, often involving a capital commitment. Antithesis of in touch with. what the audience gets out of a movie and how it's going to work in Middle America Middle America 1 A region of southern North America comprising Mexico, Central America, and sometimes the West Indies. Middle American adj. & n. ,'' said Robert Bucksbaum, who refuses to have his face photographed because he's worried about being barred from useful prescreening exhibitions. ``I sit in the back because I can see more of how the audience is reacting.'' Bucksbaum claims his predictions are 75 percent accurate. But even if Bucksbaum's accuracy claims are correct, the public can be fickle fick·le adj. Characterized by erratic changeableness or instability, especially with regard to affections or attachments; capricious. [Middle English fikel, from Old English ficol, and unpredictable. Trying to determine whether a movie will succeed or fail at the box office isn't that simple - even with help. Marty Goldman Marty Goldman (born March 7th, 1910 - died February 17th, 1987) was an American boxer (Welterweight & Lightweight) of Jewish descent in the late 1920s and early 1930s. He was managed by Abe Attell out of Brooklyn, New York. , owner of Mini Theaters, says Reel Source's information is useful, but only to a point. ``If I were able to find someone who was completely accurate, I would end up owning every single theater in the United States United States, officially United States of America, republic (2005 est. pop. 295,734,000), 3,539,227 sq mi (9,166,598 sq km), North America. The United States is the world's third largest country in population and the fourth largest country in area. ,'' he said. ``I would avoid all the movies that didn't work, like `My Fellow Americans.' You think something is going to do business, based on all your experience, and John Q. Public says, `No, I'm not interested.' You never ever know.'' Indeed, when it comes to box office predictions, you can choose your source and get your answer. It just might not be the right answer. In a recent example of disparity, Reel Source predicted 20th Century Fox's re-release of ``Star Wars'' will take in $40 million domestically while John Seabrook John Seabrook is an American journalist who writes about technology and popular culture. He has been a staff writer at The New Yorker since 1993. Seabrook graduated from Princeton University in 1981 and received an M.A. in English Literature from Oxford. , writing in the New Yorker yorker Noun Cricket a ball bowled so as to pitch just under or just beyond the bat [probably after the Yorkshire County Cricket Club] , said it will gross around $100 million. While most of the business for prediction services comes from movie chains, Hollywood studios prefer to rely on research screenings, usually conducted by National Research Group, to supplement their own forecasts. Jeff Blake Jeff Bertrand Coleman Blake (born December 4, 1970 in Daytona Beach, Florida) is a retired American football quarterback who played in the NFL. Although he finished his career with the Chicago Bears, he was formerly a quarterback for the New York Jets, Cincinnati Bengals, New , head of Sony Pictures' distribution operation, insists there is no way to predict exactly how a film will perform and adds he has no interest in paying for box-office prognostication. ``We kind of equate the groups offering predictions to people selling stock market tips and earthquake forecasts,'' Blake said. ``Believe me, I've been in this for 20 years, and until I turn on the PC on Friday night, I don't know Don't know (DK, DKed) "Don't know the trade." A Street expression used whenever one party lacks knowledge of a trade or receives conflicting instructions from the other party. what will happen.'' Robert Bagby, president of the B&B chain, is less dismissive dis·mis·sive adj. 1. Serving to dismiss. 2. Showing indifference or disregard: a dismissive shrug. Adj. 1. of using forecasting services. He subscribes to Los Angeles-based Reel Source and the Independent Marketing Edge, of Bozeman, Mont. ``The information they offer is useful, although it's not always right,'' Bagby said. ``Of course, we have someone attend all the screenings, and we use a lot of feedback from local managers. And if you're in smaller markets, you have a lot fewer screens to work with than in big cities, so you really need to pick and choose the winners.'' Chains decide two to three weeks prior to release how many screens they will allocate to a film, usually following a screening. Bagby said the forecasts and Sony's enthusiasm convinced him in late November to back ``Jerry Maguire'' more strongly than he might have otherwise. The Tom Cruise romance-comedy has gone past $100 million and should take in another $20 million domestically. ``R-rated films don't do all that well out here, but other people had good faith in it,'' Bagby said. ``That made me go a little wider than I might have. I'm glad I did. Dan Klusmann, president of Independent Marketing Edge, admits that forecasting is inexact in·ex·act adj. 1. Not strictly accurate or precise; not exact: an inexact quotation; an inexact description of what had taken place. 2. . ``Sometimes we look remarkably smart and sometimes we seem quite dumb,'' he said. ``Having a hit is a mixture of ingredients, but the No. 1 thing is that there is a marketing handle to create emotion to get people to run out to theaters; sometimes it's stars, sometimes it's just a campaign.'' Klusmann analyzes studio marketing campaigns, trailers, star power, release date, competition and prerelease pre·re·lease n. Something released before an official or scheduled date. adj. Of or relating to an interval preceding an official or scheduled release: screenings to arrive at his predictions. ``For a film to succeed, it's not enough that it be high quality,'' he said. ``There have been a lot of excellent films that have failed at the box office.'' Klusmann notes that the process of prediction has become more complicated because clients for his newsletter, aimed at movie chains, have been seeking more foreign information. He noted that TriStar's ``Striptease,'' which was a domestic disappointment, generated strong numbers in overseas markets, while the reverse was true for Disney's ``Jack.'' The call for such services could increase as the number of films released and the number of screens - already up 15 percent from 1996 to more than 28,000 - continues to rise. Klusmann predicts the domestic office could grow by as much as 6.5 percent this year, while Bucksbaum is much more bullish Bullish Word used to describe an investor's attitude. Bullish refers to an optimistic outlook, while bearish means a pessimistic outlook. bullish and asserts it could rise by 18 percent to $7 billion. It posted a record in 1996 with $5.92 billion, up about 7.8 percent from 1995. About 60 percent of Reel Source's business comes from movie chains; the rest is from the news media and by providing consulting services Noun 1. consulting service - service provided by a professional advisor (e.g., a lawyer or doctor or CPA etc.) service - work done by one person or group that benefits another; "budget separately for goods and services" for studios. ``What we're doing is giving an analysis of audience awareness and ideas for marketability, recognition of the cast and concept,'' Bucksbaum said. ``That's particularly useful for the exhibitors.'' But studios rely heavily on gut instincts and research screenings to predict box office performance, according to according to prep. 1. As stated or indicated by; on the authority of: according to historians. 2. In keeping with: according to instructions. 3. Bucksbaum. That's a big mistake, he insists. ``The problem with studios is that they often look at a movie for themselves; they're not watching to see how it will do in Ohio,'' he said. ``My first reaction to `Unstrung Heroes' is that it would be huge, but then I realized five minutes later that it would have a very limited audience. I have to always ask what are 100 million other people going to think?'' Bucksbaum said that studios are reluctant to change how they operate, even though relying on research screenings can backfire. Test audiences gave high numbers to Sony's ``Mrs. Winterbourne Winterbourne distant from even his own feelings about Daisy. [Am. Lit.: Daisy Miller] See : Aloofness ,'' which bombed, while panning Miramax's ``Pulp Fiction'' and New Line's ``Seven,'' both of which became hits. ``One of the problems with getting your information from a screening is that you're giving people a freebie free·bie also free·bee n. Slang An article or service given free: "such freebies as subway and bus maps" New York. , and they're getting the bonus of seeing it before anyone else,'' he said. Bucksbaum admits he is not infallible in·fal·li·ble adj. 1. Incapable of erring: an infallible guide; an infallible source of information. 2. . He ignored the prerelease popularity on his Web site (www.reelsource.com) of Paramount's ``Beavis and Butt-Head Do America,'' now past $60 million. ``We thought the audience would be too narrow to go beyond $25 million,'' he said. ``That was a huge miss for us.'' As a result, Reel Source is now expecting Howard Stern's comedy for Paramount, ``Private Parts private parts n. men or women's genitalia, excluding a woman's breasts, usually referred to in prosecutions for "indecent exposure" or production and/or sale of pornography. ,'' to perform in the $60 million range as part of what promises to be Hollywood's strongest year. ``Here we are in January and February and it's almost like summer,'' he said. ``You have `Dante's Peak' and `Absolute Power' and `Star Wars.' We're in for a great year.'' Another forecasting service, the Motion Picture Intelligencer in·tel·li·genc·er n. 1. One who conveys news or information. 2. A secret agent, an informer, or a spy. , has yet to find a client even though it has the backing of a 1994 UCLA UCLA University of California at Los Angeles UCLA University Center for Learning Assistance (Illinois State University) UCLA University of Carrollton, TX and Lower Addison, TX study finding that its predictions of 81 films were accurate. ``When you have something new and revolutionary, it's not an easy sell,'' said owner Chris Lanier, who also operates a video production service. ``After all, how many years did it take to get a personal computer on everyone's desk?'' Lanier, a 20-year veteran of the business, believes that the studios will begin seeking his services because of the escalating costs of product. ``The dollar costs of the entertainment value are rising much faster than revenues,'' he said. ``Profits are dropping like a rock.'' Lanier's service proposes to look at the rough cut, the finished film or the shooting script shooting script n. The final version of a movie or television script with the scenes arranged in sequence as they are to be filmed or taped. Noun 1. and calculate the probabilities of reaching certain levels of box office performance - information that can then guide marketing and script revisions. He uses complex formulas to place the film into one of eight categories, with the basic factor being the ``entertainment quotient'' based on elements within the movie such as the story, acting, music and characters. ``There are so many factors that go into success - star power, budget, reviews, how many prints, competition, advertising. But in an auto race, the most important factor is the car, not the driver or the weather. We tell you what kind of car you've got,'' he said. Lanier is also of the belief that the movie business is struggling to remain profitable because movies no longer entertain people the way they used to, as with ``Gone With the Wind.'' ``Success in the Golden Age of movies was not accidental,'' he said. ``The most successful moguls knew how to manage content. Now, it's not a problem with star salaries. It's control over content.'' Lanier believes that studios need to pay more attention to the basics rather than just spending more money if they are to avoid becoming even less profitable. ``If you want a scary movie, you can either do a $3 million special effect or have a hand reach out, like in `Wait Until Dark,' '' he said. ``The audience does not care - they're just there to be scared.'' HITS AND MISSES Winners and losers in 1996 (Movie, studio, domestic gross, budget): WINNERS ``Independence Day,'' Fox, $306 million, $75 million ``101 Dalmatians,'' Disney, $126 million , $50 million ``Mission: Impossible,'' Paramount, $181 million, $60 million ``Set It Off,'' New Line, $35 million, $4.5 million. ``Beavis and Butt-Head Do America,'' Paramount, $60 million X, $11 million. ``Twister,'' Warner, $241.7 million, $85 million. ``Dead Man Walking,'' Gramercy gra·mer·cy interj. Archaic Used to express surprise or gratitude. [Middle English gramerci, from Old French grand merci : grand, great; see grand + , $39.7 million, $8 million. LOSERS ``Multiplicity mul·ti·plic·i·ty n. pl. mul·ti·plic·i·ties 1. The state of being various or manifold: the multiplicity of architectural styles on that street. 2. ,'' Sony, $20 million, $36 million ``Striptease,'' Sony, $33 million, $40 million ``Mary Reilly Mary Reilly may refer to:
``Unforgettable,'' MGM MGM in full Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer, Inc. U.S. corporation and film studio. It was formed when the film distributor Marcus Loew, who bought Metro Pictures in 1920, merged it with the Goldwyn production company in 1924 and with Louis B. Mayer Pictures in 1925. , $2.8 million, $19 million ``Lawnmower Man 2,'' New Line, $2.4 million, $17 million ``Daylight,'' Universal, $30 million X, $80 million ``Mars Attacks!'' Warner, $36 million , $70 million X indicates the movie is still playing in theaters PREDICTIONS Reel Source Inc. predictions for upcoming movies: Movie, studio, release date, estimated domestic gross ``Fierce Creatures,'' Universal, Jan. 24, $31 million ``Star Wars,'' Fox, Jan. 31, $40 million ``Dante's Peak,'' Universal, Feb. 7, $175 million ``Absolute Power,'' Sony, Feb. 7, $55 million ``Beautician and the Beast,'' Paramount, Feb. 14, $32 million ``The Empire Strike Back,'' Fox, Feb. 21, $28 million ``Donnie Brasco,'' Sony, Feb. 28, $53 million ``Private Parts,'' Paramount, March 7, $60 million - Source: Reel Source Inc. CAPTION(S): 4 Photos, Box Photo: (1--Color) Chris Lanier, president of Motion Picture Intelligencer, tries to turn film forecasting into a science. Bob Halvorsen/Daily News (2--Color) No caption (Two dogs from ``101 Dalmatians'') (3--Color) No caption (Mars Attacks!) (4--Color) No caption (Howard Stern) Box: (Color) HITS AND MISSES (See text) |
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