BETTER THE SECOND TIME AROUND? SOME SEQUELS FRESH, SOME STINK.

Byline: GREG HERNANDEZ Staff Writer

LOS ANGELES -- The mammoth disparity between the opening weekend grosses of ``Ice Age: The Meltdown'' and ``Basic Instinct 2'' showed how some sequels might already be past their expiration date even before opening weekend at the megaplex, box office analysts said Monday.

``Meltdown,'' released by 20th Century Fox, took in an astounding $68 million last weekend to achieve the biggest March opening in history by a wide margin.

It surpassed the previous record of $46.3 million grossed by the first ``Ice Age'' during its opening weekend in 2002. But ``Instinct 2,'' the sequel to the 1992 film ``Basic Instinct'' starring Sharon Stone and Michael Douglas, did ``Gigli''-type numbers with an opening weekend gross of $3.2 million and no chance of coming remotely close to the $117.7 million earned by the first movie.``If they had released the movie 13 years ago, maybe it would have worked, but the interest died down,'' said Robert Bucksbaum, president of Reel Source Inc. ``It needs to be fresh in the minds of people.

``Instinct 2'' had been in development for more than five years at Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer with Stone under contract to star. At one point Stone sued producers, demanding to be paid even though the movie had not been made.

With Douglas not involved this time around, the search for a leading man repeatedly delayed the production. Actor David Morrisey was finally hired to star opposite Stone after a succession of candidates floated in and out of the project, including Bruce Greenwood, Benjamin Bratt and Kurt Russell.

``Instinct 2'' was released by Sony Pictures Entertainment, which acquired MGM last year.

Box office analyst Paul Dergarabedian, president of Exhibitor Relations Co., said that in addition to the 14 years between films, savage reviews did not help matters.

``I don't think you can fault the marketing because everyone knew the movie was coming out,'' Dergarabedian said. ``But when time and bad reviews conspire against you, it's hard to make a dent in the marketplace.''

Most sequels or franchise movies are released far closer together than ``Instinct 2'' and its original. But ``Hannibal,'' the 2001 sequel to 1991's ``The Silence of the Lambs,'' managed to take in $165 million and outgross the original by $35 million - this despite the role Jodie Foster created being taken over by Julianne Moore in the sequel.```Hannibal' made it because it was a good movie and the interest was still there,'' Bucksbaum said.

Bucksbaum said such franchises as ``Spider-Man'' and other Marvel Comics superheroes are safer bets for the studios, which have sequels to ``X-Men,'' ``Mission Impossible,'' ``Scary Movie,'' ``Pirates of the Caribbean,'' ``Garfield'' and ``The Fast and the Furious.''

``Even if you don't have the same 'Batman,' you can have Val Kilmer put on the suit instead of Michael Keaton, and it doesn't matter because the concept is already there. You already have a proven concept, and title awareness is 90 percent of the battle,'' Bucksbaum said.

Another sure road to sequel success, according to Dergarabedian, is when the kids are hooked. This was proved by the success of ``Shrek 2,'' which outgrossed its predecessor, and now with ``Meltdown,'' 2006's first blockbuster. Further helping kid-friendly sequels is the repeated viewing the originals get on DVD, which keep characters fresh in their minds.

``With kids, more than any other group, the idea of a sequel is great because they don't have any kind of bias against it,'' he said. ``Kids don't think in terms of sequel. They think in terms of character and the brand name.''

[e-mail]

[phone]

CAPTION(S):

2 photos, box

Photo:

(1 -- 2 -- color) no caption (movies)

Box:

Sequels: Sink or Soar

SOURCE: Exhibitor Relations Co. and Box Office Mojo