BATTLE LINES BEING DRAWN IN CALIFORNIA.

Byline: John Jacobs 

LAST week's news that GOP presumptive nominee Sen. Bob Dole will seriously contest California, that his campaign has hired veteran consultant Ken Khachigian as its principal strategist and that it will spend $10 million or more here to pin President Clinton down in a must-win state is sure to encourage frustrated California Republicans worried sick about how well their party will do in November.

But it is important to remember that notwithstanding Khachigian's presence and Dole's latest 24-hour campaign swing to California, final decisions on how seriously to contest the state or how much money will be spent won't be made until September at the earliest. Clinton now leads Dole in some polls in California by as much as 20 points.

``You can never forget the fact that if California is competitive, Bill Clinton will probably lose the presidency,'' said veteran GOP strategist Sal Russo. ``Given that fact, it would be preposterous and stupid for Dole to make a decision today. The polls aren't competitive and Dole would make a bad decision. So the one sensible choice between now and the August convention is to compete here as forcefully as you can until then.''

Dole will get an enormous amount of attention in California in mid-August, when the Republicans nominate him at their San Diego convention. It is also possible that this week's guilty verdicts in the Whitewater trial of one-time Clinton business associates from Arkansas will reopen questions about the president's involvement and begin to erode Clinton's lead in the polls.

But if Republican pollsters find out after Labor Day that Dole is still down by 12 points or more in California, it would be political malpractice to pour one-sixth of the entire $61 million in federal funds that Dole is allotted for his national campaign into a state Dole can't win.

Khachigian and Gov. Pete Wilson insist that Dole will fight here to the bitter end. Dole strategists say that by forcing Clinton to compete here, Clinton will not be able to devote the kind of time and resources in battleground Midwestern states as he would if he knew he could take victory in California for granted.

True, but that reasoning works the other way as well. If Dole is spending so much time here that he isn't campaigning or spending significant money in the critical state of Ohio, where Clinton led by 13 points in the most recent poll, or Michigan, where he's ahead by 17, then Dole is in big trouble.

Worse for Dole, Clinton led him by 5 points in a recent Florida poll, a state essential to the Republican base. Florida is Dole's California. Clinton is not likely to win Florida, but if Dole is forced to spend money there, he won't have the resources to be competitive elsewhere.

Despite all its peculiarities, California is representative of the nation as a whole. Within the state are smaller regions that resemble in political attitude the Midwest, the South, the Rocky Mountain states and the Pacific Northwest, as well as the nation's big cities and suburbs. It is unlikely, in other words, that Dole could close the gap here unless he is also closing the gap elsewhere.

``When all is said and done,'' Russo said, ``it's easier for Dole to get to 270 votes the number of electoral votes needed to be elected without including California. You get states like Michigan and Missouri and New Jersey. But you won't get those states unless you are at least competitive in California.''

Polls will obviously change over the next six months, but a state-by-state analysis of the electoral map shows that Clinton is either solidly ahead of Dole or leading him in states that have 360 electoral votes, 90 more than he needs to win. Dole is ahead or leading in states with just 144 electoral votes. (In some states, the individual Clinton-Dole surveys are weeks or months old.)

Then there is the question of how Dole erodes Clinton's lead, if and when Dole decides to contest California.

UC Berkeley political scientist Bruce Cain, associate director of its Institute of Government Studies, says Dole could use the ``character assassination'' model that former Senate candidate Michael Huffington used against Sen. Dianne Feinstein in 1994 or the ``issues assassination'' model Wilson used against Kathleen Brown the same year.

The problem with the first strategy, said Cain, is that it is so expensive it would require more money than Dole is likely to have. Huffington spent $30 million, three times Dole's best-case budget. ``Character assassination can work,'' Cain said. ``Huffington made the race close and drove Feinstein's negatives up over 50. But he didn't win.''

The other model, ``issues assassination,'' said Cain, could turn on such things as illegal immigration, affirmative action and Clinton's support of gay rights. Dole is adding crime to the mix. Wilson spent $27 million working illegal immigration and crime against Brown.

``The problem with the Wilsonian strategy,'' said Cain, ``is that Clinton is more like Feinstein than Barbara Boxer or Kathleen Brown. He's had some very liberal moments, but he's really gravitated to the middle. Clinton in electoral mode makes Wilson's strategy very hard.''

There are no easy choices in this complicated electoral chess game, especially when you're down by 20 points. The selection of Khachigian, one of Huffington's principal strategists, suggests that if the campaign is waged, it will be bloody. The big question still, however, is if.

MEMO: John Jacobs writes a column for McClatchy Newspapers.

CAPTION(S):

Photo

Photo: (Color) Drive for the Golden State: Republican presi dential contender Bob Dole.

Associated Press