BATTLE FATIGUE; IN HEAT OF MOVIE-AWARDS SEASON, INDUSTRY'S MOST RABID PARTICIPANTS TAKE NO PRISONERS.

Byline: Bob Strauss Daily News Film Writer

Partisanship rages. Colleagues who once worked in a spirit of cooperation are at each others' throats. Spin doctors bombard us with embarrassing revelations and ludicrous propaganda. And over it all looms the spectre of war.

It happens every year, and it gets worse every year. It's movie-awards season.

And even though we're going to be subjected to three more months of nonsensical hype - the 71st Academy Awards will be presented March 21, 1999 - most of the desperate lobbying and special pleading that's going to be directed toward Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences members already has been rendered moot.

As is usually the case in the top Oscar races, they're essentially over just as they kick into high gear. Despite a hiccup or two in the preliminary heats - the film scholar-dominated National Board of Review's, the L.A. and New York film critics' groups awards and the Golden Globe nominations - you're not likely to lose money on a ``Saving Private Ryan'' bet.

Yes, the International Free Food for Trophies Trading Co. . . . Whoops, I mean, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, which puts on the Golden Globes, gave more nominations to ``The Truman Show'' and ``Shakespeare in Love.'' But once the Oscar nominations are announced Feb. 9, expect all those extra academy technical categories (cinematography, editing, sound, etc.) to fall in behind the ``Ryan'' victory march.

Sure, ``Truman'' and ``Shakespeare'' will be Oscar's other certain Best Picture contenders, and deservedly so. But just as rightfully so, the momentum is with Steven Spielberg's Normandy assault.

As for the other slots, it looks like they'll be filled by two of the following three titles: the respected ``Elizabeth''; the dearly, if not universally loved ``Life Is Beautiful'' (which, due to some arcane international food-for-trophy trading bylaw, did not qualify for Globes consideration); and the little ultra-indie that could, ``Gods and Monsters,'' the only movie that is racking up as many pre-Oscar honors as ultra-production ``Ryan.''

The Best Actor award looks more and more like ``Monsters'' star Ian McKellen's every day, too. If the British knight wins for his psychologically intricate portrayal of horror movie director James Whale, he'll be the first openly gay actor to do so for playing a gay role.

We can confidently guess that the other Best Actor nominees will be ``Ryan's'' Tom Hanks, ``Life Is Beautiful's'' Roberto Benigni, ``Truman's'' change-of-pace Jim Carrey and Nick Nolte, who does career-crowning work in the grim but mesmerizing, aptly titled ``Affliction.'' Which means, unfortunately, that Brendan Gleeson's brilliant portrayal of an eccentric Irish crime lord in John Boorman's equally award-worthy ``The General'' will go unrecognized.

Unless, heh heh, enough academy voters read this article.

In a refreshing turn of events, Best Actress consensus is growing for Brazil's Fernanda Montenegro, the 67-year-old veteran who so bravely exposed her every dark insecurity in ``Central Station.''

The rest of the category is somewhat open, despite the dreary inevitability of at least one slot getting taken up by those dueling dying moms Meryl Streep (``One True Thing'') and Susan Sarandon (``Stepmom''), neither of whom were in projects worthy of their talents. Much better that this year's two best pseudo-Brits - Australia's Cate Blanchett (``Elizabeth'') and our own Gwyneth Paltrow (``Shakespeare'') - are equally likely candidates.

The big question is: Will stodgy academy voters overcome their prejudices against both comedy performances and experimental hair-care products to nominate the trickiest female performance of the year, Cameron Diaz's irresistably appealing work in ``There's Something About Mary''? Hope so, but don't bet your Brylcreem on it.

Another great performance that risks being overlooked is Joan Allen's tender ``Pleasantville'' turn as a '50s sitcom mom alarmed and elated by newly discovered human passions. Though she won a couple of critics groups' supporting-actress citations, Allen's snub by the foreign press (who were evidently fed better by Brenda Blethyn and Sharon Stone's people) could prove fatal, Oscar-wise.

Indeed, lack of Globe nominations pretty well quashed ``Pleasantville's'' once plentiful Oscar hopes. Also toasted by the foreign feeders - as in, they're toast - were former hopefuls ``The Thin Red Line,'' ``Waking Ned Devine,'' ``A Simple Plan'' (except for supporting actor Billy Bob Thornton), ``Stepmom'' (except for Sarandon), ``A Civil Action'' (except for supporting actor Robert Duvall) and ``The Prince of Egypt'' (except for its noisy Mariah/Whitney duet).

Leading the Supporting Actress Oscar race at this point are Judi Dench, who plays Queen Elizabeth in ``Shakespeare'' (has any actress ever not been nominated for playing the virgin queen?) and Kathy Bates for her eerily prescient ``Primary Colors'' portrayal of a woman disillusioned by a Clinton-like politician's behavior. The next most likely suspect is Lynn Redgrave for her funny/touching, Igorish ``Gods and Monsters'' housekeeper.

Thornton, Duvall, ``Truman Show's'' Ed Harris, ``Rushmore's'' Bill Murray and Geoffrey Rush (for either ``Elizabeth'' or ``Shakespeare'') look good in the Supporting Actor category.

But there could be an upset nominee when the academy votes are counted, and a worthy one at that. Jeremy Davies, who was the complexly cowardly recruit in ``Private Ryan,'' reportedly has impressed the acting branch voters far more than he has the outside observers in the HFPA and the critics groups.

Director? You have to ask? Sure, ``Red Line's'' Terrence Malick topped Steven Spielberg in the New York Circle's vote, but that was likely just because his South Pacific war film has prettier foliage, and those snooty, concrete-bound critics tend to mistake plant life for art. The Manhattanites still gave ``Private Ryan'' their Best Picture nod, so what does that tell you?

Sharing the slate with Spielberg will be ``Truman's'' Peter Weir, ``Shakespeare's'' John Madden and ``Life Is Beautiful's'' Benigni. Fifth spot's open; it probably will be filled by a Globe-boosted actor-director such as Warren Beatty (``Bulworth'') or Robert Redford (``The Horse Whisperer''). Historically, the directors branch members who do the nominating view guys like them as lesser competition for future work than a full-time filmmaker who could win that Oscar.

The writing categories are traditionally Oscar's most eclectic, intelligent and - because of those two factors - unpredictable. We will fearlessly predict, though, that on March 21 the cleverly complicated and thoroughly satisfying ``Shakespeare in Love'' will triumph over such inevitable contenders as ``Private Ryan,'' ``Truman Show'' and ``Bulworth'' in the Original Screenplay category.

It hasn't been a banner year for adapted screenplays, but this race may be where otherwise undermentioned films such as ``Simple Plan,'' ``Affliction,'' ``Little Voice'' and ``A Civil Action'' get recognized. If the writers are really in a perverse mood, they could give a nomination to ``Thin Red Line.'' If they want to be even sicker, how about the ``Psycho'' remake - though that may qualify more as an original than an adapted screenplay.

Of course, things will change during the course of the Oscar season, but it would be unrealistic to anticipate surprises on a par with, say, Newt Gingrich's resignation of the House speakership or the bombing of Iraq. They'll probably be more along the lines of incoming House Speaker Bob Livingston's forced admission of marital infidelity: perhaps not expected, but once you think about it, no real surprise at all.

Inevitable, though, will be more misguided hype (Variety already has run Best Actress consideration ads for the little girl from ``The Parent Trap'') than humanly imaginable, all in pursuit of insanely overvalued, gold-plated statuettes.

There are hard times ahead, America. Lace up your combat boots.

CAPTION(S):

4 photos

PHOTO (1) Tom Sizemore, left, and Tom Hanks in ``Saving Private Ryan.''

(2 -- 4) The snub of Joan Allen, left, by the foreign press could prove fatal, Oscar-wise. Cate Blanchett (``Elizabeth'') seems a likely candidate for Best Actress, andthe Best Actor award looks more and more like ``Monsters'' star Ian McKellen's every day.