BAKER PREFERS REALITY.

Byline: KEVIN MODESTI

PEORIA, Ariz. - A half-hour before a sold-out Chicago Cubs exhibition game against the Seattle Mariners, Dusty Baker is signing autographs and bantering with fans near the visitors' dugout, somehow ignoring the cries of one gray-headed refugee from the Midwestern winter.

``Dusty, I've got a buckeye for you!'' the woman screams from the box- seats rail farther up the right-field line. ``If you rub it, it'll bring you good luck this year!''

Baker seems to be the only one who isn't staring at her.

She reaches into her purse and pulls out a large, dark nut.

``It's a buckeye!'' the woman screams. ``It's good luck for you and your Cubs!''

Baker either is not noticing or pretends not to be noticing.

She turns toward the players stretching near the first-base line.

''Sammy!'' the woman screams at Sammy Sosa. ''I forgot to give you a buckeye!''

Now everyone in earshot is laughing at the crazy fan, and Baker is looking up from the thicket of pens and programs to see what sort of lucky charm she's promising him.

She tosses the buckeye in the general direction of the Cubs manager, but he makes no effort to catch it, and it skitters along the warning-track dirt. The woman appears distressed. Baker picks up the nut.

``I didn't know what it was,'' Baker shouts, laughing as he examines it. ``I wasn't going to catch it 'til I knew what it was.''

He shoves it deep into a pants pocket and turns back to the autographs.

Try telling some fans that if the Cubs are going to win the National League pennant this season, it's because they added four-time Cy Young pitcher Greg Maddux and Gold Glove first baseman Derrek Lee to the core of last year's Central Division champions.

Try telling some fans that if the Cubs are going to break their pennant drought at 59 years, it's not because that bad-luck foul ball from Game 6 of the NLCS was blown up so spectacularly last month in Chicago or because Steve Bartman has been ostracized so effectively.

Try telling some fans that the only talisman the Cubs need is a stronger roster of players.

Baker doesn't pull the thing out of his pocket until he's back in the dugout, minutes before the national anthem, chatting with a reporter.

He rolls it around in the fingers of his left hand, tries to feel its power. In parts of the country, people swear a buckeye brings you health, wealth, love.

``I'm afraid to throw it away,'' Baker says with a grin.

Having spent most of his long first Cubs winter at home in the San Francisco Bay Area and all of spring training in Arizona, Baker has had only a taste of the nuttiness that's going to surround the club this year.

This day in Peoria, Maddux strikes out eight Mariners in three innings but the Cubs lose in front of 13,366 fans. The ballpark's official capacity is 10,000.

Last season's sad ending at Wrigley Field, the 3-0 lead on the Florida Marlins, five outs from the pennant, slipping away after L'Affair Bartman, has everybody talking about the Billy Goat Curse again.

The off-season's moves, not plentiful but smart, have prognosticators talking World Series. Nineteen-forty-five, here we come.

``It hasn't got nearly as crazy as it's going to get (when) we're in Chicago,'' Baker says in the dugout.

``Hey, man, let 'em get crazy. They've been waiting a long time to get crazy. Short of violence, let 'em get crazy. Let 'em have a good time. Let us win and we'll have us the best time we can remember in our lifetimes.''

Cubs fans blew up the Bartman ball at Harry Caray's Restaurant in February. The ceremony was televised. Baker didn't watch.

``If that's what they think they need to get rid of this Curse of the Goat and quit talking about it, hopefully this'll do it,'' Baker says.

``I get tired of talking about it. I don't want to have anything to do with something I don't even believe in. But, hey, there's some people who do, so there's nothing I can say about it.''

Three fruitless playoff appearances in 10 seasons managing the Giants, including the World Series Game 7 loss to the Angels in 2002, taught Baker to handle near-misses like the Cubs' last year.

``A near-miss is better than not even being there to miss,'' he said. ``Maybe we weren't good enough.''

With the signing of Maddux, 16-11 with the Atlanta Braves in 2003, the Cubs' likely starting rotation was 75-51 last year, making the case it's the best in baseball. Lee (31 home runs) arrives from Florida to upgrade the batting order and the infield. LaTroy Hawkins (9-3, 1.86) comes from the Minnesota Twins to set up Joe Borowski. They more than make up for the departures.

``I'm a realist,'' Baker says.

''I think we have a more-rounded and better team than we had last year. Last year we didn't know what we had,(and) I wasn't talking about anything except I hope we'd have a winning season.''

The Cubs are talking bigger this year. The reason to believe is there on the roster sheet. Unless you think it's there in Dusty Baker's palm.

He hands the lucky buckeye to a batboy.

``Keep that for me,'' says the realist.