BAHRAIN - The Impact Of Public Opinion.

Therefore, no matter how discreet the role the government of Bahrain may play in facilitating the American war against terror, the leadership cannot ignore the impact on public opinion. Popular perceptions, in particular, are apparently highly anti-American judging from recent polls, and no leader in the region can disregard this completely although none of them are fully dependent on a popular mandate in practical terms.

A poll to discover Muslim attitudes towards the US and the Sept. 11 hijackings was conducted by Gallup during December 2001 and January 2002. A total of 9,924 Muslim residents in nine countries: Indonesia, Iran, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey were interviewed. The poll had about 120 questions, but not all were asked in every country because of censorship. Respondents overwhelmingly described the US as "ruthless, aggressive, conceited, arrogant, easily provoked, (and) biased".

Of the respondents, 61% said they did not believe Arab groups were behind the attacks, and a further 67% thought the US campaign in Afghanistan following the attacks was unjustified. The poll confirmed a widespread unfavourable opinion of the US in the Muslim world - 53% - with less than half of that - 22% - holding a positive opinion. Although not all the countries in the Islamic World were part of the survey, governments throughout the Middle East are likely to draw appropriate conclusions given the spread of the survey, from Morocco to Indonesia (see more details in News Service No. 10).

Bahrain will not be immune to the implications of the survey's results. Indeed, the emirate may be especially vulnerable in view of the democratic changes about to be implemented in the coming year. Bahrain is poised to introduce parliamentary elections next October, in one of the boldest experiments with political liberalisation in the Gulf Co-operation Council. On Oct. 24, 2002, all Bahraini citizens over the age of 21 - including both men and women - will be able to vote for the elected assembly. The Emir of Bahrain, Shaikh Hamad Bin Isa Al Khalifa, has promised that the assembly will play an important role in the running of their country.

Before the assembly elections, on May 9, there will be municipal elections to five regional councils which, it is proposed, will look after public works, roads and education, among other things. That date will mark the first time women have been able to stand for office in the tiny Arab state, which is home to around 620,000 people including expatriates.

The political changes follow from the result of a referendum held by the ruler on Feb. 14, 2001, in which the people were asked to vote on a National Charter. The public responded with a near unanimous "yes" vote of 98.4%. Sheikh Hamad's government then promised to bring in the political reforms set out in the charter by the end of 2004. The announcement of the elections, made on Feb. 14, 2002, comes about two years ahead of schedule.