BAHRAIN - The Imminent War & Implications.

The first priority for the Bush administration, however, is to oust the regime of Saddam Hussein in Iraq. There are indications that a war will be launched by mid-March, regardless of opposition from governments in Europe and the Middle East, and of public opinion from across the world. It is significant that, so far, not one of the Arab states have made a public statement in favour of US military action against Iraq - although Kuwait has come closest.

Bahrain will be a frontline state in this war, as it is the base for the Commander of the US Naval Forces Central Command (COMUSNAVCENT), who will have a central role in the conduct of the military campaign. There will be political implications for the King, who has not yet shown any public support for the US. Yet it is virtually taken for granted by all concerned that the US will be allowed the use of the base facilities in the country.

Indeed, the Bahraini response is virtually predetermined as it is bound by treaty obligations to provide the US with basing and other facilities. There is also a longstanding tradition of quiet bilateral diplomacy on sensitive matters. And moreover, any specific ad hoc military-related requirements that the US may have during the hostilities would be dealt with through the channel of backstage diplomacy. Such assistance being provided by Bahrain is not likely to become public knowledge.

(Defence agreements between the US and Bahrain go back several decades. It began in 1949, when Bahrain became the "de facto home port" for the Commander of the Middle East Force of the US. Since then, military ties have expanded steadily. Bahrain became the site of a US Military Administrative Support Unit in 1971 and an Office of Military Co-operation was established in 1986. After Operation Desert Storm, a Defence Co-operation Agreement was signed in 1991, allowing the US access to Bahraini bases during military-related emergencies. It also permits the pre-positioning of equipment. In 1993, Bahrain became the base for COMUSNAVCENT).

The challenge for King Hamad Bin Issa would be to adapt to the military and strategic requirements of the US, while at the same time keeping the domestic situation stable, at a time when he is reforming both the political and the economic system in the country. The Bahraini leadership understands well that, no matter how discreet the role the government of Bahrain may play in facilitating the American war against terror, it cannot ignore the impact on public opinion.

Popular perceptions across the Middle East are apparently highly anti-American judging from frequent opinion polls conducted by various global research agencies, and no leader in the region can disregard this completely although none of them are fully dependent on a popular mandate in practical terms. Bahrain is no exception. There have been anti-US incidents and protests in recent months.

In an unusual event for a member of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC), in early January 2003 about a thousand protestors took to the streets of the capital to protest against a possible US war against Iraq, chanting "Death to Israel, death to America". Witnesses said some of the protestors were Arab and Asian expatriates. They started the demonstration after Friday prayers. Protestors also carried banners saying "No to the American facilities" and "No to war against Iraq." Some demonstrators carried the Iraqi flag. All 34 of Bahrain's political parties were represented, according to the National Committee for Supporting the Iraqi People, which organised the protest.

A similar protest with an anti-American focus, involving some 2,000 people, was staged on Dec. 31, 2002, resulting in the arrest of 41 people. In that protest, which turned violent, hundreds of New Year's Eve revellers smashed cars, attacked tourists, trashed hotel windows and an American fast food outlet. The government blamed drunken teenagers, but investigators later suggested Islamic radicals instigated the riot to exploit popular anger over US plans to invade Iraq. All of those arrested were youths between the ages of 13 and 23.

Since political demonstrations have been permitted in Bahrain since February 2001, there has not been much the government could do about protests, apart from ensuring that these were carried out peacefully. Police forces tend to confront demonstrators with tear gas and batons. Local observers have noted that if the government tried to ban demonstrations, then it would come under criticism from the West for backtracking on reforms, as well as from the domestic opposition groups. There have been sporadic small demonstrations in the kingdom since then, but none has become violent like the one on New Year's Eve.

On Feb. 15, in another incident, the Bahrain News Agency announced that five locals aged 31-41 were arrested for plotting terrorist acts against the island's "national interests and endangering the lives of innocent people". Police also seized weapons and ammunition that the detainees were planning to use "for carrying out acts of terrorism targeting the security of the country and the people", according to the news agency. These were the first terror-related detentions in Bahrain since Sept. 11, 2001. One official said at the time that the investigation would assess whether US naval facilities in the kingdom were a target.

King Hamad was quoted by the agency on Feb. 16 as saying he that was alarmed "there are Bahrainis who have motives to cause harm to the safety of citizens and residents and to damage the economy of the country", but he referred to it as "an isolated incident". Pro-government newspapers on the same day quoted unidentified religious sources as saying the five suspects -- identified as Mohieddin Khan, Bassam Bukhowa, Bassam Ali, Isa Al Balouchi and Jamal Al Balouchi -- were known for religious radicalism. The Bahrain Tribune reported that Isa Al Balouchi was a serving member of the National Guard, part of the Bahrain Defense Forces.

Such incidents have prompted Bahraini officials to warn that a war with Iraq would destabilise the region and therefore the kingdom. Bahraini and other Arab officials foresee negative economic repercussions. They also note that the fledgeling democratic reform process in member states of the GCC could be affected. This is because, if the US invasion of Iraq goes ahead as expected, then anti-US public opinion will only strengthen, and that in turn would only benefit the radicals. Democratisation in such circumstances would almost certainly yield results that were negative from the US perspective.