Avian flu pandemic would not be a typical emergency.

Editors' note: The writer's company makes Tamiflu, an antiviral flu medication that could be purchased as part of a defense against a potential pandemic flu.

LAST month a flight from Hong Kong landed in the United States with a plane load of mysteriously ill passengers, reviving fears of an avian flu pandemic. Fortunately, it was a false alarm, but as one major newspaper observed, the incident "raised questions about U.S. readiness for the real thing, which could kill millions and wreak economic havoc."

It was a fresh reminder of how quickly a disease could travel through an international gateway, whether Newark, where this flight landed, or Los Angeles International Airport, prompting many business leaders to consider what we would do if it actually was avian flu.

Late last year, leaders from government, business and health care took part in a pandemic planning exercise in Los Angeles in which the city was at the epicenter of an avian flu pandemic. In the scenario, thousands had died, the city's health care system was close to breaking down, and overstretched hospitals were running out of critical medical supplies just three weeks after the first cases were reported.

While this may seem like the plotline for a Stephen King novel, public health authorities know that such a scenario is all-too real.

"Pandemic influenza may be the biggest public health challenge of our time," Sandra Shewry, director of California's Department of Health Services, said recently. According to the department, an influenza pandemic could cause 30 percent of the state's total population to fall ill and result in nearly 200,000 deaths.

The health impact is only part of the story. California could lose $87 billion during a severe pandemic flu outbreak, representing a 5.4 percent drop in the state's economy, according to a report released last month by the non-profit Trust for America's Health. The report estimates that the arts, entertainment and recreation sectors alone could have a demand loss of about $4 billion over three months.

It's a good thing we can count on government to protect us, fight? Wrong. Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt has said: "Those expecting the federal government to ride ... to their rescue (will) be sorely disappointed." Moreover, the TFAH report predicts that, "all levels of government will be severely strained in their efforts to ... mitigate (an) outbreak." Consequently, the report concludes, "much of the initial burden will fall upon the private sector."

Unique response plan

While many California businesses are wellprepared for disasters such as earthquakes or fires, a pandemic is a different kind of emergency that requires a unique response plan. A pandemic is not a single event that comes and goes, but could last up to 18 months with a series of waves that last six to eight weeks.

In a pandemic, companies can't just operate out of an alternate location, because the virus would likely be widespread and contagious. In California, as many as 8.8 million civilian employees could be absent from their jobs, according to the California Department of Employee Development. That is one-half of the state's labor force.

For Californians, pandemic flu is not your "typical" emergency. D. Scott Parsons of the U.S. Treasury Department underscored these points in testimony before a House Subcommittee last year: "A firm cannot simply move to back-up facilities and restore operations, because it is likely those facilities are also experiencing challenges associated with the pandemic. Contingency planning must now take into consideration efforts to mitigate the spread of influenza within the firm or a department. Among the key issues for consideration are the stockpiling of masks, gloves and antiviral agents, additional hand washing stations for employees, and identifying and isolating employees who may be sick."

In short, business leaders must think in ways we've never thought before about protecting our businesses and employees. Who comes to work? Who can work from home? Which positions are essential to keep the core business running? Can we service our customers? How will we maintain a supply chain? How will we run factories and ship products?

As Leavitt has said: "Avian flu will severely test the best-laid plans ... and many companies are not making any plans at all." The alternative is to hope a pandemic never occurs--which is like the homeowner who foregoes insurance, then hopes his house never catches fire.

George Abercrombie is president and chief executive of Hoffmann-La Roche Inc. He spoke about pandemic planning at a Town Hall Los Angeles luncheon on Thursday.