Automation of general planning of fire for effect.

Analysis of warfare trends and research results provide evidence that general planning of fire for effect (FfE) is central to activities of the staffs of combined-arms large strategic formations in preparing for and conducting combat operations. The objectives of planning are achieved through rational organization and automated mode of numerous and very laborious information-computation processes intended for timely and high-quality development, making and communicating to subordinated echelons of FfE decisions that are optimal for concrete conditions.

An important course of action for greater effectiveness of general FfE planning is to create special military software (SMS) supporting various military automated systems, and, first of all, automated C & C systems (ACCS). Experience gained in developing general military ACCS subsystems indicates that it is general practice to mechanically transform individual methods of manual counting into software in solving problems of general FfE planning without appropriate account being taken of changes that are taking place in the content of the logic, analysis, information processing and management of authorized personnel of combined-arms staffs, and the grown potentials of new information technologies and new trends in developing automation equipment.

What is more, the software being developed and adopted in ACCS for use in subsequent stages of FfE (direct and detailed) planning is incompatible, informationally and technologically, with the other SMS components. In addition, their use in general military ACCS subsystems is limited by the capability of existing computer equipment that comprises an array of varied sets of software and hardware, many varied applications and systems often supplied by foreign companies.

The drawbacks pointed out above hamper the development of an integral SMS, cause greater incongruity between methods of practical operational and tactical calculations of general FfE planning, give rise to different mathematical models (MM) and application programs (AP) used autonomously.

The above trends necessitate getting a clearer idea of current methodological approaches to creating SMS for general FfE planning and their development on the basis of systems analysis. It is worthy of note in this connection that some of the aspects of developing special software for FfE planning taking account of special characteristics of RF missile forces and artillery employment and principles of building complex systems were described in most general terms in this journal in previous years. (1) According to some of those who wrote for the journal, SMS should be viewed as a complex system designed for a quantitative and qualitative validation of proposals relating to fire for effect in operations, upgrading the quality of planning and reliability of appraising the effectiveness of fire by the sides involved in military operations. In our opinion, the above requirements imposed on SMS of general FfE planning do not help to resolve the main contradiction consisting in the fact that it is impossible to achieve informational and methodological harmony between mathematical methods being developed for automating C & C elements' activities (cooperating in the process of general planning in accordance with their joint vertical and horizontal subordination), methods of computation, and algorithms and criteria for appraising the fire effect on enemy targets and force groupings.

In addition, appraisals of the current efforts to develop ACCS in the operational-strategic echelon point to a deepening contradiction between the constantly growing potentials of automation equipment and new information technologies, on the one hand, and insufficient effectiveness of organizational measures to supervise the development of SMS components, and the slow rate of its industrial adoption for operational activities of the assigned personnel of C & C with the aid of automated military systems, on the other.

This leads to an ever more typical situation where software and application programs that are taken from SMS of general FfE planning for being used in future ACCS prove to be of very little use owing to the obsolescence of basic methods and programs or owing to changing views of the methods to prepare and conduct combat operations. These circumstances and growing standards of equipping C & C echelons with automated systems and other computer gear call for a need for accelerated development of qualitatively new SMS meeting the changed information-related requirements of staffs in the process of general FfE planning. It is of decisive importance to analyze practical activities of C & C echelons, and first of all, of centers (groups) of planning and coordination of conventional (nuclear) fire, spot the new and refine existing functions of authorized personnel that should be carried out in automatic mode with the required degree of speed and substantiation.

All this is evidence of a need for finding new ways to create SMS for general FfE planning to be used by centers (groups) of planning and coordination of conventional (nuclear) fire of combined-arms force staffs. In our opinion, these ways should be based not only on particular operational-tactical and systems-engineering requirements imposed on various complexes of software and application programs, but they should also correspond with the methodology of designing automated military systems, the principles of architecture of special military software for ACCS, (2) software development guideline documents, and they should take into account special characteristics of FfE planning now that the theory and practice of military art are adopting new FfE concepts in modern operations.

Studies show that this difficult scientific and technical problem can be successfully solved only if the following main principles are observed: the principle of openness that makes it possible both to increase the number of SMS components and a stage by stage realization of authorized persons' functions in the process of general FfE planning (at the stage of scenario development, at the final stage of decision making and planning of operations, and so on) and this goes for every type of mission; a module-based design that makes it possible to reconfigure SMS components so as to get adapted to changing conditions and make it possible to bring the software being developed into program complexes that reflect the logical and informational coordination of C & C functions to be performed; unity in the use of mathematical descriptions and algorithmic solutions achievable through standardization of the main algorithms of information processing and mathematical methods and modes of their realization in programs; universality making it possible to use SMS for the purposes of general FfE planning both in preparing for and during combat operations; packaging and organization of SMS functioning in accordance with the content of C & C functions not only for the planning and FfE purposes but also for organization of reconnaissance, collection, processing, storing and displaying information and communicating it to the subordinates, etc.; intelligent capability to increase the share of decision making support systems (expert systems) with regard to effective engagement among SMS components.

The above principles reflecting the main operational-tactical and system-engineering requirements imposed on SMS construction should be supplemented with two groups of no less important principles of constructing algorithms and programs and organizing the development of general FfE planning SMS.

The first group includes the principle of adaptability to conditions of functioning consisting in the possibility to quickly tune software to the given number of users and configuration of the automated systems, information requirements of the authorized personnel, the volume and the degree of refinement of initial information; the principle of firmness of functioning reflecting the need for reliable execution by SMS of all assigned tasks of general FfE planning under different conditions of operating the system, as well as multilevel logical control of output data and generation of diagnosis messages when errors are discovered.

The second group comprises the principle of centralized development, which means that it should follow a single plan on the basis of scientific procedures that apply to all executing entities and it should be coordinated from one military research center (organization) responsible for the creation of SMS; the principle of development validation implies that practical realization of mathematical models and application programs should be preceded by their prototyping and testing with allowance for the environment in which the ACCS is supposed to function.

We think SMS created for general FfE planning on the above principles will make it possible to integrate current achievements in theory and experience gained in building complex systems and single out, within ACCS SMS, a functionally complete subsystem (a single package of interrelated mathematical models and information processing tasks) distinguished by its unified content while being relatively independent in serving the purpose of effective support of the entire cycle of FfE planning.

This approach is conducive to direct use on every hierarchical level of uniform sets of interrelated input data and computation methods, as well as automated equipment for their transmission, storing and processing, to greater speed of general FfE planning by authorized personnel and staffs.

It should be noted that we are still developing basic methods of creating SMS for general FfE planning, procedures of its development, its application in ACCS and practical employment. Two schools of thought have emerged from the efforts to develop theoretical provisions and recommendations in this regard.

The first one, developed in the early 1990s, employs a norm-balancing (tabular) method of FfE planning which uses standard units (a rated weapon, a rated piece of ammunition, a rated target and a rated degree of effective engagement by fire). This method is special in that it uses the above standard units to calculate the scope of missions and norms of required forces and fires calculated for standard operational conditions and adjustable to specific situations. The main advantage of this approach is its simplicity and its drawback is that it yields intermediate results, it is necessary to make many allowances and use conventionalities in aggregating the input data which reduces the accuracy of calculated indices.

It should be noted that SMS for general FfE planning developed on this basis generally implies the use of conventional (manual) methods of computing not only because of this method's characteristics but also the insufficiently advanced information technology in this country and inadequate automation of RF Armed Forces' C & C. Practical use of SMS in real conditions, which differ considerably from standardized conditions, and with the employment of more weapons of different types, FfE procedures computed on the basis of calculated characteristics can only serve as a general reference plan and do not allow us to judge whether operational objectives can be achieved. This deepens the contradiction between speed and reliability of operational-tactical computations because general FfE planning in the operational C & C echelon does not improve a bit.

The second school of thought, which emerged from research by the mid-1990s, has some similarity of fundamental principles and methods used in the first school of thought, it uses a different approach to mapping out ways of developing SMS for general FfE planning. Its recommendations are based on a norm-optimization method of FfE planning. It saves us the trouble of transforming information and we can do computations in standard units (very close to realistic units) corresponding to types and methods of representation of input and output data, and to existing information flows and functional requirements of C & C agencies of combined-arms staffs in preparing for and conduct of operations.

It should be pointed out that norm-optimization method of FfE planning is based on determining the scope of missions and fire capabilities chiefly with regard to standard targets of the enemy. This approach enables us to establish, as early as at the stage of determining the plan of operation, the number of standard targets to be engaged and belonging to concrete force groupings and to distribute them amongst forces and fires of the armed services (branches) taking account of standard coefficients, calculated in advance, of weapons participation coefficient. Methods of calculating participation coefficients for various types of weapons in engaging this or that standard target (3) have taken a step further in the system of suggested views on developing SMS for general FfE planning.

According to these views, participation coefficients are calculated by the method of expert appraisals of contributions of various weapons to the result of effective engagement of every target taking into account the ammunition expended to destroy individual targets in groups of targets, casualty effect of the ammunition, enemy targets' capability to withstand fire effects, the depth of fire effect of concrete piece of weapon and the spatial location of the target on the battlefield, the average time needed to complete combat missions and the average time the targets can remain functioning in combat environments. All this makes it possible to optimize the hardest problem of FfE planning, or allocation of targets (distribution of standard enemy targets between types of weaponry: artillery, missiles, aircraft, etc.) as early as at the stage of determining scenarios of operations, and to communicate the scope of FfE missions to C & C agencies of armed services (branches) in the form of certain quantities of standard targets indicating the required extent of their engagement, which guarantees generation of a substantiated FfE procedure in operations. In addition, despite the increased scope of information to be processed, the time needed for automated solution of information processing problems (including several military operation options) will not exceed the time allocated to the staff of a combined-arms large strategic formation for general FfE planning.

Furthermore, the proposed approach makes it possible to develop SMS making the utmost use of computer equipment's potential and make a much greater use of new information technologies in general FfE planning. The use of new information technologies enables calculations for several scenarios of operations, get the results of computations in forms convenient for perception and generate text and graphics documents of standard form. The use of graphic methods of input and correction of operational information, and the procedures of context help and graphical display of the main parameters of general FfE planning substantially reduce time inputs even under rapidly changing situations.

In our opinion, it is advisable to use for the creation of SMS for ACCS enabling the operation of a subsystem of a combined-arms large strategic formation methods of computation and software dating from the mid-1990s (the second school of thought) which have been more than once tested in operational training of troops and staffs of operational-strategic formations. According to comments from staffs in military districts, the first-priority SMS component--a set of computation tasks (SCT-1) for general FfE panning in the phase of generating scenarios of combined-arms operations--fully corresponds to its functions (see Fig.).

[FIGURE OMITTED]

It helps centers (groups) for planning and coordination of conventional (nuclear) fire to operate two or three times faster, provides many operational-tactical computation alternatives, ensures that their results are valid and comparable. The new thing about this set of computation tasks is that its methods are in line with modern views of FfE planning, it is possible to select rational FfE operation scenarios, use a broad range of information technologies for the convenience of the authorized personnel and make it easy to comprehend results.

Practical implementation of the system approach to developing SMS for general FfE planning in deciding on the composition and structure of the SCT-1 calls, first of all, for analysis of the above principles, logical analysis, information processing and managerial activities of the authorized personnel and agencies that do FfE planning, and the factors that impact on FfE in operations.

Analysis of research that has been carried out so far shows that SMS for general FfE planning should include forecasting tasks to be able to implement methods of operational-tactical computation at the stage of drawing up scenarios of operations to determine:

* expected number of targets to be reconnoitered and engaged in the entire zone of the large strategic formation and their distribution in accordance with established standard groups;

* required degree of damage to the EFG during the entire operation in percentage points and in the number of targets to be engaged among the discovered standard groups;

* required amount of ammunition (aircraft) resources per every type of assigned weapons of armed services (branches) for effective engagement of the required number of enemy targets;

* attainable degree of damage to the EFG with the ammunition and aircraft resource allocated for the operation in the entire zone of the large strategic formation and in sectors of operation of the friendly troops;

* participation of types of weapons in missions against the EFG in percentage points, the number of targets to be engaged in every standard group and the relative share of assigned types of weapons;

* distribution of ammunition (aircraft) resources according to operation missions and sectors where friendly troops operate;

* distribution of organic and assigned forces to reinforce first echelon large strategic formations and to create a reserve.

As for forecasting tasks for general FfE planning at the final stage of drawing up the operation plan, they should be based on programs containing methods of operational-tactical computation to determine the number of targets belonging to reconnoitered standard groups to be engaged as part of the top-priority operational task (TPOT); of ammunition (aircraft) resources allocated for the TPOT and their distribution among missions of general and direct engagement of the enemy; of ammunition (aircraft) resources allocated for massive conventional fire (MCF) as part of the TPOT taking account of reconnaissance units' capability to locate enemy targets; the number of enemy targets engaged by the MCF; target allocation in MCF and generation of a schedule of its preparation and delivery, mobility of the main targets in the EFG that should be engaged on a top-priority basis; the composition and number of integrated reconnaissance and strike systems (IRSS) and of integrated reconnaissance and fire systems (IRFS); IRSS and IRFS reconnaissance and engagement zones; distribution of the ammunition (aircraft) resources allocated for systematic delivery of fire (SDF) between IRSS (IEFS) and in accordance with sectors of operations of the friendly forces; the number of enemy targets engaged through systematic delivery of fire in fulfilling the TPOT.

Practical application of the above set of computation tasks (SCT-1) by military C & C agencies in operational preparations prompts that it is advisable to build general FfE planning software used by centers (groups) for planning and coordination of conventional (nuclear) fire in blocks and modules as sets of SMS and applications for general use. The composition, structure and procedures for the use of such SMS sets should correspond to the algorithm of operation of the authorized personnel, that is to say, they should support information processing characteristic of the activities of centers (groups) of planning and coordination of conventional (nuclear) fire during general FfE planning.

I would like to point out that the current theory and practical experience in the field being discussed do not reject the achievements of corresponding schools of thought in the field of automation of C & C agencies of armed services and branches. As for the creation and adoption of SMS for general FfE planning, today's various achievements and theories can and must be used mainly as auxiliary means in the work of centers (groups) of planning and coordination of conventional (nuclear) fire of combined-arms staffs (as manual methods of operational-tactical computations or as components of tutorial systems) in cases where the use of SMS of the subsystem of ACCS of combined-arms large strategic formation proves impossible for some or other reason.

Thus, the search for ways of creating SMS for general FfE planning should rely on modern achievements of military theory and available practical experience in the development and employment of software and information technologies in C & C processes. Reliance on the advanced schools of thought in modeling military operations is important for finding a timely and satisfactory solution to this problem. Once it is solved, it would eliminate the discrepancies of different methods of operational-tactical computations for general FfE planning, the incompatibility of software and hardware of computing and modeling systems, substantially reduce the time needed for developing SMS for ACCS and thereby speed up the work of authorized personnel (C & C agencies) in FfE matters and in preparing for and conducting combined-arms operations.

NOTES:

1. See: V.A. Kezhaev, N.Ye. Yefimov, S.A. Vasilkovskiy, "Spetsialnoye matematicheskoye obespecheniye protsessa planirovaniya ognevogo porazheniya protivnika," Voennaia mysl', No. 1, 1998.

2. See: I.A. Grachev, "Printsipy postroyeniya spetsialnogo matematicheskogo i programmnogo obespecheniya ASU voyskami (silami)," Voennaia mysl', No. 2, 2002.

3. See: O.N. Kalinovskiy, "Ob otsenke ognevykh vozmozhnostey voysk v operatsii," Voennaia mysl', No. 5, 1996.

Col. V.I. VYPASNYAK

Candidate of Military Sciences