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Australia's killer bushfires have their origins in Indian Ocean.


Byline: ANI

Sydney, March 25 (ANI): Climate experts have uncovered a link between the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD IOD Institute of Directors
IOD Information on Demand
IOD International One Design (sailing)
IOD Institute on Disability (University of New Hampshire)
IOD Indian Ocean Dipole
) and the killer bushfires in Australia.

Found by Dr Wenju Cai and Tim Cowan, of CSIRO's Marine and Atmospheric Research Atmospheric Research (ISSN 0169-8095) is scientific journal dealing with the part of the atmosphere where meteorological events occur; intended for atmospheric scientists (such as meteorologists and climatologists), aerosol scientists, and hydrologists. , the link indicates that a weather pattern centred on the Indian Ocean may provide an early warning system for major bushfires in southern Australia.

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 a report by ABC News, 11 of 16 major bushfires in Victoria since 1950 have been preceded by what is known as a positive IOD event.

Cai said that an unprecedented three consecutive positive IOD events preceded February's devastating Black Saturday bushfires.

The IOD refers to temperature fluctuations in the east and western Indian Ocean.

In its negative phase, the IOD brings cool water to the ocean west of Australia and warm water to the north, leading to winds that bring rain-bearing air over the continent.

In the positive phase, water temperatures are reversed and less rainfall travels to Australia, particularly to Victoria where the negative IOD provides winter and spring rains.

As part of their research, Cai and Cowan recorded changes in the IOD using Argo floats, robotic devices that measure the subsurface ocean temperature.

They found the IOD was in an "unprecedented" positive state for three consecutive years leading up to 2009.

They said that this preconditioned the environment to the extent that it was almost inevitable the bushfires, which claimed more than 200 lives, would occur.

"If you look at the accumulative LEGACY, ACCUMULATIVE. An accumulative legacy is a second bequest given by the same testator to the same legatee, whether it be of the same kind of thing, as money, or whether it be of different things, as, one hundred dollars, in one legacy, and a thousand dollars in another, or whether  soil moisture in Victoria, it's unprecedented, it's never been so dry," said Cai.

The researchers also found an IOD link to the Ash Wednesday bushfires of February 1983, with a positive event reducing rainfall during the winter of 1982.

According to Cai and Cowan, climate change projections show the frequency of positive IOD events will increase in the future.

"Almost all climate models say under climate change we are going to have an Indian Ocean warming pattern," said Cai.

"That means it has to be manifested in either more frequent positive IOD events or higher intensity positive IODs," he added. (ANI)

Copyright 2009 Asian News International The Asian News International (ANI) agency provides multimedia news to China and 50 bureaus in India. It covers virtually all of South Asia since its foundation and presently claims, on its official website, to be the leading South Asia-wide news agency.  (ANI) - All Rights Reserved.

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Publication:Asian News International
Geographic Code:8AUST
Date:Mar 25, 2009
Words:367
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