Assad handles crises, but regime suffers

On the face of it, the worst appears to be behind Bashar Assad. There's much less talk of regime change in Damascus, or of prosecuting the Syrian president over the murder of a Lebanese politician.

Syria's international isolation has eased a bit, and Assad has managed to split the Israeli leadership with a well-timed peace overture to his country's longtime enemy.

The country's close links to a strengthening Iran and an increasingly menacing Hezbollah in Lebanon have given it renewed leverage, after a period in which it seemed badly weakened.

"There is very little left that anyone can do to hurt Syria," said Ayman Abdul-Nour, a reform-minded member of Assad's ruling Baath Party, reflecting a mood of confidence that Syrians are a tough, resilient breed, and that they hold the key to peace in the Middle East.

But appearances may be deceptive.

Below the surface, analysts say, the regime is embittered by its isolation, frustrated by its inability to win back the Golan Heights, lost to Israel 40 years ago this June, and worried that its opposition activists, now small in number, could grow in strength if America helps them.

Assad's frustration with Washington's refusal to deal with him was clear in an interview aired Feb. 5 with ABC television. He insisted his country could help calm the violence in Iraq if the United States would only ask him.

He accused President Bush of rejecting dialogue and said Bush's "administration is not willing to achieve peace _ they don't have the will and they don't have the vision."

But the United States isn't alone in cold-shouldering the 41-year-old former eye doctor. Washington's influential Arab allies _ Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan _ all but shun Syria. They blame it for the destruction in Lebanon during last summer's war between Hezbollah and Israel. And Syria's close links to Hamas have worsened tension with Washington and its Arab allies.

There also is a rising feeling, as Assad wraps up a trip to Iran, that Syria's alliance with Iran may be rocky. The presidents of both countries denied any rift Sunday, but some Arab diplomats have said Syria feels betrayed by a joint Iranian-Saudi Arabian effort to clamp down on Lebanese violence.

So lonely does Syria feel that a visit by politicians of Spain's Catalan region makes the front page in the tightly controlled state-owned media.

But most damaging to the regime's standing is its failure to make any progress to win back the Golan Heights _ Syria's no. 1 issue since it lost the strategic plateau in the 1967 Middle East war.

Negotiations between Syria and Israel on the fate of the Golan collapsed months before Assad's father and predecessor, Hafez Assad, died in 2000.

Lately Assad has offered unconditional peace talks with Israel, and some influential Israelis have called on their government to accept.

But to do so would mean breaking Syria's isolation and angering Israel's chief ally, Washington, which has led international efforts to isolate Damascus, accusing it of allowing Sunni insurgents to cross its border into Iraq, and of destabilizing Lebanon's Western-backed government.

Lebanon is the most spectacular debacle Assad has faced. After the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005, angry Lebanese took to the streets blaming Syria, and brought an end to nearly 30 years of Syrian military presence in the country.

The U.N. investigator into the assassination initially implicated top Syrian and allied Lebanese security officials, and there was even speculation Assad himself could be indicted. But the investigation's later reports made no further mention of Syrian complicity.

Legal experts say the draft agreement for the creation of the tribunal that will try the case does not touch on the subject of presidential immunity, and also does not exclude prosecution of superiors for their subordinates' actions. The draft has been approved by Lebanon's government but is stalled in parliament by the political feud between a U.S.-backed majority and a pro-Syrian opposition.

A Beirut-based Western diplomat closely monitoring the case said the tribunal's decisions could have major implications on the survival of Assad's regime, particularly if top Syrian officials are put on trial. He spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject.

Writing in the Arab daily Al-Hayat, columnist Yassin al-Haj Saleh says the regime is benefiting from a public perception of Bush as the author of "the climate of siege and pressure," and that if that hostility toward America were to change, the anger would shift to domestic failures _ economic stagnation, weak public services and the lost Golan Heights.

After inheriting the presidency from his father, Assad ushered in liberties previously unknown, freeing hundreds of political prisoners and allowing critics to voice grievances in the press.

Where his father cultivated an image of lofty omnipotence, the son attends soccer matches to root for Syrian clubs, dines with children from orphanages and strolls the streets of Damascus with his wife.

But the new liberties have been watered down. The government has mounted waves of arrests of activists, closed independent newspapers it had licensed and failed to introduce meaningful political reform.

"It is much better now compared to the days of Hafez Assad," said Akram al-Bunni, a leftist opposition lawyer who spent 17 years in jail before his release in 2002. "Critics are not terrorized like before but they are made to realize where the limits are."

Al-Bunni's brother, Anwar, is under arrest and is being tried with others for anti-state activity.

Some activists are barred from traveling abroad, others are stripped of their civil rights and opposition groups are denied permits to operate legally.

The reformists have narrowed their demands for reform and hope to field candidates for the 85 seats set aside for independents in May elections for the 250-seat parliament. Assad's seven-year term ends in July, and he is expected to seek another term as sole candidate in a "yes" or "no" referendum.

Elias Murad, editor-in-chief of Al-Baath, Assad's Baath Party newspaper, insists the regime must be cautious with reform at home at a time when it is under pressure from abroad.

"Any regime that respects itself cannot turn a blind eye to individuals who try to enlist the help of foreign powers to work against it," Murad said.

Marwan Kabalani, a political science lecturer at the University of Damascus, maintains that what Syrians want most is not democratic reform but to make ends meet.

Grumbling about rising food prices, unemployment and the gap between rich and poor have been growing louder in recent months, both in the business-oriented media and in private conversations.

"People are hungry for bread and stability and not freedoms," said Kabalani.