Assad Gives In To Iran Backing For Lebanese Talks In France - But Holds All Regional Cards.

Negotiations between Lebanon's squabbling parties at Saint Cloud, France, on July 14-15 failed to break an impasse between the Western-backed government of Fou'ad Siniora and the pro-Syria opposition led by Hizbullah. President Assad, determined to undermine a UN tribunal in the case of the Hariri murder and other killings in Lebanon blamed on the Syrian regime, has been strongly against such dialogue. But he had to give in to Tehran which backed the Paris initiative as part of an Iranian-French dialogue begun since the Hizbullah-Israel war in 2006.

Tensions between the government and the opposition are expected to come to a head in the next couple of months over the election of a successor to President Emile Lahoud, a puppet of Assad and thus part of the Iran-led axis of anti-US forces in the Middle East. The presidential election is slated for September or October.

In recent talks in Damascus between Assad and Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa, who has been trying to mediate between the Lebanese parties, the Syrian ruler put five terms for a solution which he said were not negotiable: (1) no UN or any foreign role to control the porous borders between Syria and Lebanon, through which Syria is allegedly channelling arms and fighters to both Hizbullah and Palestinian guerrilla groups created by the Syrian intelligence; (2) there must be a "national unity government" in Beirut in which the opposition should control a blocking third, enabling the Hizbullah-led groups to veto any decision rejected by Damascus, such as the UN court to try the killers of Hariri and other Lebanese VIPs; (3) there should be no presidential election before such a government has been in place, with Damascus insisting on one of its own Maronite men - ex-Lebanese Army commander Gen. Michel Aoun is presenting himself as "the only candidate" to succeed Lahoud; (4) there should be no dialogue between the two camps before such a government has been in place; and (5) Syria-controlled guerrilla groups acting outside the Palestinian refugee camps south of Beirut must be allowed to operate freely - including Fatah al-Islam (see news23-LebSyrFatahIslamHaririJun4-07).

The state-run Syrian daily ath-Thawra recently stressed that the only solution to Lebanon was the one which passed through Damascus. Through this and various other messages out of the Syrian capital, Assad has been telling the US and its allied powers that he alone held the key to solutions to Lebanon, the Palestine question and Iraq. Thus Assad is giving these powers two choices: they should either kill the Hariri court project or face chaos from the Caspian to the Mediterranean.

In a parliament swearing-in ceremony to start his second seven-year term as president, Assad on July 17 said the only solution to the chaos in Iraq was for the US to set a timetable for its withdrawal from the country. But this and the various other cards he believes to be holding are mere negotiating chips with the US-led alliance. His aim is to survive as ruler of "Greater Syria" - the Assads, like the previous rulers in Syria, have never formally recognised Lebanon as an independent state; nor have they really backed an independent Palestine state; the Syrian Ba'th Party still claims Iraq should be ruled by a Ba'thist regime, although the Assads have never trusted Saddam Hussein.

French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, who led the July 14-15 talks, said he would continue his mediation effort with a visit to Lebanon on July 28. Underlining the deteriorating security situation, the UN's peacekeeping force UNIFIl in the south of Lebanon on July 16 came under attack for the second time in less than a month when a small bomb exploded next to a convoy, causing no casualties. Last month, six Spanish and Colombian soldiers died in a similar bombing.

Lebanon is facing its worst political and security crisis since the 1975-1990 civil war - something highlighted in a recent report by the UN commission investigating the 2005 assassination of former PM Rafiq Hariri. The commission, headed by Belgian prosecutor Serge Brammertz, said his group identified the people involved in the killing of Hariri and in the planning for the murder. But it concluded: "The security outlook for Lebanon over the coming months appears to be bleak". The commission warned in particular of "growing tension marked by possible further security incidents" in the run-up to the choice of a new president to succeed Lahoud. The president is one of the last remaining pillars of Syria's once near-total dominance of Lebanon. Many government supporters fear Damascus will not give up on the presidency. Even some in Lebanon's opposition now say the country's current woes are related to Syria's wish to retain influence. The FT on July 17 quoted a senior pro-Syria opposition official as saying instability in Lebanon was inevitable as Syrian interests were not safeguarded.

June saw the killing of an anti-Syria MP Walid Eido, a Sunni member of the Future Movement led by Sa'd Hariri, son of the late PM, and nine others in an explosion in Beirut as well as other attacks. Brammertz estimated in his report that the decision at the end of May by the UN Security Council (UNSC) to set up an international tribunal to try the suspects in the killing of Hariri and others was contributing to the rising tensions. Syria and its allies in Lebanon had strenuously opposed the formation of the tribunal.

The talks in France focused on solving the political stalemate which began last November, when Hizbullah and its pro-Syria allies withdrew from the government. Hizbullah attended the St. Cloud meeting outside Paris, in spite of a spat with France over recent remarks by President Nicolas Sarkozy, who called it a terrorist organisation. The movement is on the US but not the EU's list of terrorist organisations.

For Iraqi Refugees, Damascus Becomes 'Little Baghdad': In Iraq, Shi'ite and Sunni Arabs live uneasily close to each other as bitter foes in a bloody conflict. In Sayeda Zeinab, a working-class district on the outskirts of Damascus where a holy Shi'ite shrine is located, they live close as refugees. About 1.4m Iraqi Shi'tes, Sunnis and Christians have crossed the border into Syria, where the regime pursues a pan-Arab ideology. Although they now live under a government which plays down sectarian tensions, the Shi'ite and Sunni Iraqis have created a little replica of Baghdad - one so reminiscent of the city they left that Sunni and Shi'ite areas are segregated by a thoroughfare called Iraq Street.

So far, there have been no reports of sectarian violence. But exile has not meant forgiving. Bloomberg on July 17 quoted Adel Khalef, an Iraqi Sunni taxi driver who says nine cousins were slaughtered by Shi'ites, as saying: "You know, the Shi'ites are the problem in Iraq. They would come after us here if the government didn't keep an eye on them".

The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) on June 5 said about 2.2m of Iraq's 27m people had moved abroad, with 95% having gone to Syria and Jordan, the two most welcoming of the neighbouring Arab countries. Syria, with a population of 19m, has accepted more than any other country: 1.4m by UN estimate. The Assad regime has been reluctant to shut the door. The chances for settling beyond Syria are slim. The US has agreed to grant asylum to 7,000 Iraqi refugees this year. About 20,000 Iraqis made their way, many smuggled, into Europe in 2006. About 9,000 arrived in Sweden, according to UNHCR statistics.

Originally, the influx into Syria was Sunni, the 20% of Iraq's population which dominated the country under Saddam's Sunni/Ba'thist dictatorship ousted in the US-led invasion of 2003, with Saddam executed in December 2006. In recent months, Shi'ites, the 60%-majority population empowered by Saddam's downfall, have joined the flow. Between January and mid-May 2007, 41,000 Sunnis, 18,500 Shi'ites, 19,700 Christians and 5,000 members of smaller minorities registered with the UNHCR, says Sybella Wilkes, UNHCR information officer in Damascus.

The Shi'ites have surprised refugee officials, who initially thought they would flee into Shi'ite areas of Iraq. Shi'ite refugees say they are hunted down at home and their mosques are car-bombed. They say Syria, despite its 85% Sunni population, is the easiest and most accommodating place to go. Laurens Jolles, the UNHCR's Damascus representative, says: "At this point, every group is coming. Iraq is reproducing itself in Syria". Jolles fears there might be a backlash from native Syrians about the Iraqi influx, adding: "Things are only going to get more difficult. There's rising resentment at so many foreigners".

Duraid Laham, a prominent Syrian actor, expresses the mood among many of his compatriots: "There are parts of Syria that are becoming alien to us". In the Sayeda Zeinab area, pictures of the Shi'ite militia leader Muqtada al-Sadr, accused by US officials of unleashing death squads on Sunnis, hang from doors and windows in the Shi'ite areas. An occasional portrait of Saddam appears in Sunni dwellings.

The refugees have brought with them their clipped Arabic dialect, their bittersweet lemon tea, their penchant for Saddam-size moustaches and, for the Shi'ites, black head-to-toe women's wear. They have brought their suspicions. The Shi'ites have also brought with them their "thawaj bil-mut'ah" (temporary marriage for sexual enjoyment) between Shi'ite males and females - the latter being widows or divorcees. This has lured many Sunni males to convert into Shi'ism - thus enjoying such fleeting alliances - with mullahs helping in the match-making process.

However, the Shi'itisation process and the "thawaj bil-mut'ah" lure have had no major effect on Syrians. Many Iraqi Shi'ite women are suspicious of Sunnis having converted into Shi'ism. Iman Jawad, a 28-year-old Iraqi widow who says her Shi'ite husband was gunned down by Sunnis on a highway last September on his way to Jordan looking for work, says: "I don't mingle much with the Sunnis here. I can't get over the fact that they killed my husband for nothing". Her parents informed her there was no place at home for the new widow. She says: "I have nine sisters. Girls don't provide. They're supposed to have a husband. That's what the Sunnis did to me". In Iraq, men began to come around her apartment making unwanted sexual advances through thawaj bil-mut'ah. But she resents such a practice.

Yet now living in Damascus, Iman, who has no children, is looking for a male protector. One suitor is 56-year-old Abdel Amin Salem. In January 2006, he says, he returned to visit his Iraqi hometown of Samarra' after 15 years working in Germany. The killing of Shi'ites by Sunni marauders quickly drove him and his wife out. His wife became ill in Syria and died of a kidney disease. "All this because Sunnis kill Shi'ites", he says, adding: "Iraq is finished for us". He says he will try to resettle in a European country.

Khalef, the Sunni taxi driver who ferries Iraqis to and from the border, lives in Sayeda Zeinab and condemns his Shi'ite compatriots across Iraq Street, saying: "In Baghdad, if your name is Omar, an Ali kills you". Omar is a common Sunni first name; Ali, a Shi'ite. Khalef, 47, left Iraq in February after his nine relatives at a car-rental company in Baghdad were fatally shot in their office. "Shi'ite terrorists killed my wife, right in our house", says Khaled Nouri, 37, a fellow driver from the mixed Amr district of Baghdad. Asked how they feel about their Shi'ite neighbours, both Nouri and Khalef answer: They want to escape them, with Nouri saying: "I don't care where it is, so long as there are no Shi'ites".