Assad For Lebanon Civil War?

On the other hand, pro-government politicians in Beirut suspect that Assad is not counting much on the success of Suleiman's mission and that he is worried that the US and France are determined to have a Hariri tribunal established under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter. To undermine progress towards such a court, they say, Assad wants a civil war to break out in Lebanon as soon as possible.

This is because Hizbullah is refusing to transform itself into a mere political party, insisting on its being armed and fighting Israel "for generations" - judging by a speech which Hizbullah's Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah gave on April 8 to mark the 25th anniversary of the Shi'ite group's creation. Hasrallah said Hizbullah still had at least another 50 years of armed struggle ahead of it and spoke against the Hariri tribunal.

On April 13, Hizbullah's Deputy Secretary-General Na'im Qassem said the UN's role in the planned establishment of the Hariri tribunal could cause "chaos" in Lebanon. That came two days after the Lebanese government sent to the UN Security Council (UNSC) a second request to establish the international Hariri tribunal. Qassem said: "The UNSC should not get too involved in the Lebanese details, it should remain neutral if they want a stable Lebanon... But if they want a chaotic Lebanon, then what they are doing is leading towards the direction they want".

Qassem said establishing the court under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter, which would obviate the need for the Lebanese parliament's approval, would lead to a confrontation with half of the Lebanese population. But the Speaker of Lebanon's Parliament, Nabih Berri, is another pro-Syria Shi'ite member of the opposition and is refusing to let the house convene to approve the court. Berri heads the Shi'ite Amal movement, which is Hizbullah's partner in the opposition.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on April 12 said he hoped the "Lebanese government would take the necessary measures, constitutional, among themselves, through dialogue by promoting a national reconciliation". Ban, who be in Syria later this month, said he hoped to persuade Syrian officials to change their position on the court. Ban's legal adviser, Nicola Michel, is to be in Beirut on April 15.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Sultanov is due in Beirut on April 16 and in Damascus on April 17 to discuss the court. Mikhail Margelov, head of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the upper chamber of the Russian parliament, on April 11 said the "forceful shortsighted approach" of the Hizbullah-led opposition would lead to the creation of the tribunal under Chapter 7.

The US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, David Welch, told an-Nahar of April 13 that if the Lebanese parliament did not ratify the tribunal, the US and other UNSC members would consider legal options to set up the court.