As poaching rises, DNA analysis may be critical for elephant conservation.

Over the past year, unprecedented numbers of African elephants have been slaughtered for their tusks, according to reports. Between August 2005 and August 2006, authorities worldwide seized more than 24 tons of smuggled elephant ivory en route to the Far East alone, though actual poaching levels are believed to be much higher. In a recent study, Samuel Wasser, director of the Center for Conservation Biology at the University of Washington, and his colleagues concluded that because customs agents typically detect only about 10 percent of all contraband, the real ivory toll may top 240 tons, representing 23,000 elephants or roughly 5 percent of Africa's total elephant population.

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Analysts attribute rising death rates to weak enforcement of the worldwide ban on international ivory sales, adopted in 1989 under the auspices of the United Nations' Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES). In its early years, the ban was considered largely effective due to heightened public attention to the ivory trade and government funding for anti-poaching efforts. Elephant populations rebounded substantially, especially in southern Africa. But in recent years as exceptions to the ban have grown and funding has dried up, the illegal killings have resumed.

Ivory markets shrank considerably in the United States and Europe following the ban, but in East Asia the demand for ivory jewelry and other products remains high. The average price of a kilogram of high-quality ivory on the Chinese black market has skyrocketed from US$100 in 1989 to US$750 in 2006, according to The Washington Post. Organized crime has contributed to the problem, as narcotics and other contraband are often shipped alongside the tusks, raising the stakes and incentives for poachers.

Wasser's team used DNA analysis to determine the origins of a 6.5-ton illegal ivory shipment, representing 3,000-6,500 poached elephants, confiscated in Singapore in 2002. By examining the tusks and taking random DNA samples to track genetic differences, they were able to prove that the ivory originated in a small area in and around Zambia. This ability to pinpoint the origin of confiscated ivory is considered critical to future elephant conservation efforts.

According to Wasser, a well-funded anti-poaching program that includes DNA analysis has the potential to dramatically curb illegal killings and related criminal activity, thus preventing ivory from reaching the international market. Greater outreach to East Asian consumers through campaigns similar to those seeking to stem demand for shark-fin soup is also considered essential for successful elephant conservation.